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2019年07月19日 03:23:07来源:泡泡乐园

The continuing collapse in commodity prices pushed oil futures to new lows Monday, and analysts predicted that the slide was far from over.周一,大宗商品价格的持续下跌致使原油期货降至新低。分析人士预测,这种下降趋势还远远没有结束。Oil prices fell to their lowest level in 12 years; futures of West Texas intermediate crude closed at .41 a barrel, down 5.3 percent. Oil futures, which lost 30 percent last year, have declined every day of the year so far. Brent oil, the main international benchmark, lost 6.5 percent and closed at .36 a barrel.石油价格跌至12年来的最低水平,西德克萨斯中质原West Texas Intermediate)期货报收每桶31.41美元,下挫了5.3%。原油期货去年下0%,今年到目前为止每天都在下降。主要国际基准布伦特原油(Brent Crude)下滑6.5%,报收每1.36美元。Last year brought a broad-based reassessment in commodities, as the global economy slowed and demand from emerging markets like China, India and Brazil waned. The slump in oil prices deepened last week on renewed concerns about the health of Chinas economy, which led to a rout in global markets.去年,全球经济放缓,中国、印度和巴西等新兴市场的需求减少,大宗商品价格随之广泛受到重新评估。上周,由于中国经济状况再次引发担忧,全球市场下挫,油价下行的趋势进一步加剧。The drop in commodities is being felt throughout the energy sector and beyond. Saudi Arabia, for instance, said last week that it was considering selling shares in its state-run oil company, Aramco. Arch Coal, one of the biggest coal producers in the ed States, said Monday that it had filed for bankruptcy protection to cut its debt.能源及其他领域感受到了大宗商品价格的下跌。例如,沙特阿拉伯在上周表示,正在考虑出售持有的国有油企沙特阿美公Saudi Aramco)的股票。美国煤炭巨头阿奇煤炭公Arch Coal)在周一表示,公司已申请破产保护,以削减债务。Russias main stock indexes also plummeted Monday in their first day of trading after a lengthy winter holiday, as falling oil prices also cast a pall over the countrys energy-dependent economy. Oil and other commodities like natural gas and steel, which make up the bulk of Russias exports, have fallen sharply on fears of a slowdown in the Chinese economy.油价下降也给依赖能源的俄罗斯经济蒙上阴影,在本周一,也就是经过漫长冬季假期后的第一个交易日,俄罗斯主要股指遭到重挫。中国经济放缓引发的担忧导致石油及天然气、钢铁等俄罗斯主要的出口商品的价格大幅下降。“Every signal that the market is getting now suggest that we are going to continue to have an oil glut for some time to come,said Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “Iran is about to re-enter the market, demand numbers and economic indicators look relatively weak, U.S. supply is holding up in a low-price environment much better than people thought, and global inventories are growing.”“市场目前得到的所有信号都说明,在未来一段时间,石油供应会继续过剩,”哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University)主任贾森·尔多夫(Jason Bordoff)说。“伊朗正准备重新进入石油市场,而需求数据和经济指标看起来相对疲软,美国石油供应在低价环境中的表现比人们的预想好得多,全球库存量在不断增加。”In that situation, he said, even geopolitical tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which would have generally spooked energy markets, have not had an impact on the markets perception of risk. In fact, the sharp increase in tensions between the two regional powers makes it less likely they will agree to stabilize oil markets within their membership in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.他表示,在这种情况下,沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之间的地缘政治冲突并没有影响市场对风险的感知。这类冲突本来通常会令能源市场紧张。实际上,这两个地区大国之间的矛盾急剧升级,反而使得它们更不可能在石油输出国组Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)内部就稳定石油市场达成一致。“In that world, there is almost every indication that you want to be bearish,Bordoff said.尔多夫表示,“在那个世界中,几乎每个迹象都表明你应该看跌。”Most analysts expect more declines before prices recover. Goldman Sachs, which had predicted that oil might reach 0 a barrel during a “superspikebefore the 2008 financial crisis, forecast last year that prices might drop as low as a barrel in the current downward cycle.大多数分析人士认为在反弹之前还会进一步下跌。高Goldman Sachs)曾在2008年金融危机前预测,油价可能会“暴涨”到每桶200美元。而它在去年预计,油价在目前的下行周期内会跌至每桶20美元。Morgan Stanley also argued Monday that oil was possible if the ed States dollar made rapid gains. Analysts at Barclays cut their outlook for oil and copper prices. They still expect oil to rebound sometime in the second half of the year, but set an average price of a barrel in 2016, down from previous forecasts of to .根士丹Morgan Stanley)在周一也提出,如果美元迅速升值,油价达到每桶20美元是可能的。巴克莱(Barclays)的分析员下调了对油价与铜价的预估。他们仍然认为油价会在今年下半年的某个时候出现反弹,但把2016年油价的平均水平设为每桶37美元,低于之前预测的560美元。“Recent price declines for major commodities are now greater than in any crisis of the past 30 years and speculative positioning much more negative than it was even in the depths of the financial crisis,according to a research note by Barclays. “That suggests that although the price outlook is weaker than it was previously, the road ahead could be a very bumpy one.”“主要大宗商品价格近期的降幅比过0年经历的任何危机期间的降幅都要大,投机性头寸甚至比金融危机最严重的时期更消极,”巴克莱的研究报告称。“这说明虽然价格预估要低于之前,但前方的道路会很坎坷。”At the same time, the drop in oil is pushing down gasoline prices. The average retail price fell to .96 a gallon, according to AAA, down from .14 a gallon a year ago.与此同时,石油价格的下跌也导致汽油价格下降。根据美国汽车协AAA)公布的数据,汽油的平均零售价从一年前的每加仑2.14美元跌至日前.96美元。Separately, coal mining companies have been struggling as demand for coal declines. The drop in energy prices and stricter environmental regulations have made natural gas a much more attractive competitor to coal in the ed States.另外,随着煤炭需求的减少,采煤公司一直在苦苦挣扎。在美国,能源价格的下降及环境监管的加强使得天然气的吸引力大幅增强,成为煤炭的有力竞争对手。“With oil prices collapsing, renewables on the rise and coal companies going bankrupt, we are at a key inflection point in the energy transition,said Michael E, Webber, deputy director of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. “Inflection points produce a lot of uncertainty and volatility for investors.”“随着油价崩溃、可再生能源愈发受欢迎、煤炭公司破产,我们正处于能源转型的关键转折点,”德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校能源研究所(Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin)副主任迈克尔·E·韦伯(Michael E. Webber)说。“转折点会给投资者带来很多不确定性和波动性。”来 /201601/422697。

  • Like many African leaders, Yoweri Museveni preached democracy even as he was seizing power through the barrel of a gun. In his stirring inaugural speech of January 1986, three days after his National Resistance Movement stormed Kampala, Uganda’s new leader spoke eloquently about the cycle of coup and counter-coup despoiling Africa’s political landscape. “We have had one group getting rid of another one, only for it to turn out to be worse than the group it displaced,he said. “The first point in our programme is the restoration of democracy.同许多非洲领导人一样,约韦#8226;穆塞韦尼(Yoweri Museveni)即便在通过杆子夺得政权之时还在宣扬民主986月,他率领的全国抵抗运动组织(National Resistance Movement)攻占了坎帕拉天后,这位乌干达新领导人在就职演说中发表了滔滔雄辩,谈到政变与反政变的恶性循环败坏非洲的政治生态。“我们经历过一个统治集团赶跑另一个统治集团,结果却是迎来了比之前更糟糕的统治集团,”他说,“我们计划的首要着力点是恢复民主制度。Thirty years after those rousing words, Mr Museveni is still in charge. Barring a violent upheaval of the sort that propelled him to power all those years ago, he will remain so for at least another five years following deeply flawed elections that culminate at the ballot box today. After a campaign marred by intimidation, Mr Museveni will be duly returned for a fifth term. He has aly amended the constitution once to scrap two-term limits. If he can do so again, this time to end an age limit of 75, then Mr Museveni, aly 71, may be able to carry on as leader of Uganda well into his eighties. 那些激动人心的言论发0年后,穆塞韦尼仍掌控着这个国家。除非爆发当年将他推上权力宝座的那种暴力动荡,否则他至少将再担任5年总统——乌干达刚刚举行了问题多多的选举。在经过一场被恐吓蒙上阴影的竞选之后,穆塞韦尼将开启第5届总统任期。他早已将宪法修改过一次,废除了最多连任两届总统的限制。如果他能再次修宪——取消总统年龄不超5岁的限制——已1岁的穆塞韦尼或许能继续担任乌干达领导人至80多岁That is quite a feat for someone who once said that the problem with Africa was leaders “who want to overstay in power Even so, Mr Museveni is not the overstayer-in-chief. That honour goes to Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea and José Eduardo dos Santos of Angola, who have both lasted 36 years. Robert Mugabe, who turns 92 this weekend, is not far behind. He will celebrate 36 years as Zimbabwe’s leader in April and has pledged to run again in elections due in 2018. Gambia’s President Yahya Jammeh, who secured power the old-fashioned way in a coup, once told the B he was y to serve for a billion years if Allah willed it. He didn’t mention the will of the people. 对于曾说过非洲的问题就在于国家领导人“恋栈”的人来说,这可是一项壮举。即便如此,穆塞韦尼还不是掌权时间最长的领导人。赤道几内亚总统特奥多罗#8226;奥比#8226;恩圭#8226;姆巴索戈(Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo)与安哥拉总统若泽#8226;爱德华多#8226;多斯#8226;桑托José Eduardo dos Santos)的执政时间都达到6年。刚2岁高龄的津巴布韦总统罗伯#8226;穆加Robert Mugabe)紧随其后。今月,穆加贝将庆祝自己担任津巴布韦领导6周年,他还誓言要再次参018年大选。通过政变这种老方法上台的冈比亚总统叶海#8226;贾梅(Yahya Jammeh)曾在接受B采访时表示,如果真主有意,他愿意再干10亿年。他没有提到人民的意愿The temptation is to see strong leaders the right ones, of course as the best solution for weak and troubled states. Nic Cheeseman, an academic and author of Democracy in Africa, says that the prerequisites of democracy are generally taken to be “a coherent national identity, strong and autonomous political institutions, a developed and vibrant civil society, the effective rule of law and a strong and well-performing economy If that is the case, then, sadly, most African countries need not apply. 世人面临的诱惑在于,把强势领导人——当然是那些合适的领导人——视为虚弱、陷入困境国家的最佳出路。著有《非洲的民主Democracy in Africa)一书的学者尼#8226;奇斯Nic Cheeseman)说,实现民主体制的先决条件通常应包括“一致的国家认同、强大且自治的政治机构、发达且充满活力的公民社会、有效的法治以及强劲且运行良好的经济”。若是这样的话,那么,不幸的是,大多数非洲国家都谈不上实现民主In Asia, some of the most successful economies, from Taiwan to South Korea and, of course, China, took off during dictatorship, even if some of them eventually became robust democracies. The problem for Africa is that leaders of the calibre of China’s Deng Xiaoping or Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew have simply not emerged, save perhaps Nelson Mandela. 在亚洲,一些最成功的经济体——从台湾到韩国,当然还有中国——都是在独裁统治时期实现了经济起飞,即便其中一些经济体最终形成了稳健的民主政体。非洲的问题在于没有出现像中国的邓小平或者新加坡的李光耀(Lee Kuan Yew)那样有水平的领导人——或许纳尔#8226;曼德Nelson Mandela)除外To be fair to Mr Museveni, his tenure has not been all bad. In his first decade, he presided over a period of political stability after the horrors of Idi Amin. Growth was brisk. Infrastructure was repaired. And Mr Museveni did better than most of his peers some of whom were shamefully neglectful in tackling the Aids epidemic head on. 平心而论,我们也不能全盘否定穆塞韦尼的总统生涯。当政的第一0年期间,在结束了伊迪#8226;阿明(Idi Amin)的恐怖统治后,他为乌干达带来了一段时期的政治稳定。经济实现快速增长。基础设施得到修复。在抗击艾滋病疫情方面,穆塞韦尼比多数非洲领导人——有些可耻地根本不重视——做得更奀?Yet the problem with successful leaders, says Mr Cheeseman, is that “they start to believe their own hype While villains and kleptocrats cling on because they fear reprisal, he says, better leaders stay in power because they genuinely believe no one else can do the job. Without their firm hand, they imagine, the state will slip back into penury or chaos. But holding on means hollowing out the institutions on which the future must be built. That is what has happened in Uganda. 然而,奇斯曼说,成功领导人的问题在于“他们开始相信自己的宣传造势”。他说,恶棍和窃国大盗因为担心报复而恋栈,而较好的领导人不愿下台是因为他们真的相信没有别人能胜任这份工作。在他们的想象中,离开了自己的铁腕统治,国家将再度陷入贫困或混乱。但抓住权力不放意味着,打造未来所必需的各种机构遭到空心化。这正是乌干达所发生的情况The west is often complicit. By the mid-1990s, outright grants accounted for more than half of the Ugandan state’s revenue, up from just 10 per cent when Mr Museveni gained control. One of Africa’s supposedly great success stories was being bankrolled from afar. 西方国家经常与这些领导人沆瀣一气。到上世0年代中期,援助赠款占到了乌干达政府财政收入的一半以上,而这一比例在穆塞韦尼上台时仅为10%。号称伟大的非洲成功故事之一,其实是依靠遥远国度的资金撑起来的History repeats itself. These days Paul Kagame, president of Rwanda since 2000, has replaced Mr Museveni as many donorsAfrican leader of choice. Though he has lost a little of his lustre, Mr Kagame is credited with ending the 1994 genocide and bringing rapid development. Today, donors account for 30-40 per cent of Rwanda’s operating budget. The price of all that love means turning a blind eye to some of the seamier aspects of the Kagame administration: political assassinations, hollowed-out institutions and a cowed press. 历史往往重复自己。如今,000年以来一直担任卢旺达总统的保#8226;卡加Paul Kagame)已取代穆塞韦尼,成为许多捐赠机构偏爱的非洲领导人。虽然不如以前那样风光,但卡加梅因结束了1994年种族大屠杀并为本国带来快速发展而受到赞扬。如今,援助赠款占到了卢旺达政府预算0%0%。这种偏爱的代价意味着对卡加梅政府比较阴暗的一些方面——政治暗杀、机构空心化以及受打压的媒体——视而不见True to type, Mr Kagame has started to see himself as indispensable. After amending the constitution, he is now seeking a third term, a possible prelude to a fourth and fifth. That could see him maintain his hold on power until 2034. If he makes it anything like that long, he will have joined the ranks of the overstayers. By then, his reputation will almost certainly be in tatters. 典型的是,卡加梅开始将自己视为不可或缺的人物。修改宪法之后,他如今正在寻求第3届任期,这可能成为其和第5届任期的序曲,从而让他一直掌权至2034年。若果真如此,他将加入那些把持权力过久的领导人行列。到那时,他的声望几乎肯定将会一落千丈。来 /201603/430770。
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