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楼主:医健康 时间:2019年10月15日 22:28:04 点击:0 回复:0
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Curbing climate change控制气候变化The deepest cuts一切为了减排Our guide to the actions that have done the most to slow global warming我们的行为指南已经最大限度减缓了全球变暖ON SEPTEMBER 23rd 120-odd presidents and prime ministers will gather in New York for a UN meeting on climate change. It is the first time the subject has brought so many leaders together since the ill-fated Copenhagen summit of . Now, as then, they will assert that reining in global warming is a political priority. Some may commit their governments to policies aimed at reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. What few will say is how many tonnes of carbon dioxide these will save—because they almost never do.9月23日,120多位国家总统和首相将会汇聚纽约联合国总部,就气候变化议题举行会议。这是自年一无所获的哥本哈根气候大会之后,国家元首们第一次为了此项议题聚会。就像当时一样,他们如今也一致认为控制全球变暖是政治的头等大事。一些元首们也许会承诺实行以削减温室气体排放为目标的相关政策。但很少人能明确说出这些政策最终将减少多少吨二氧化碳排放量—因为根本没效果。According to scientists, cutting carbon-dioxide emissions is an essential part of reducing catastrophic risks from climate change. Yet governments are persistently averse to providing estimates of how much carbon a policy saves. That may be because, in countries where climate change is controversial, it makes more sense to talk about the other benefits a scheme offers rather than its effect on carbon. Or it may be that, in countries which are enthusiastic about renewable energy, pointing out that it may not save that much carbon is seen as unhelpful. Or perhaps governments think climate change is so serious that all measures must be taken, regardless of cost (though their overall lacklustre record suggests this is not the case).科学家表示,减少二氧化碳排放量是缓解由气候变化导致的灾难性后果的重要一步。但政府自始至终都不愿意预估他们的政策到底能少排多少碳。这也许是因为,在那些对气候变化仍存争议的国家,政府更愿意显示他们实行的其他福利政策是多么有效,而非低碳减排。或者在那些热衷于再生能源的国家,指出政府政策并没有减少那么多碳排放也于事无补。或者政府认为气候变化太重要了,可以不惜一切代价来完成(不过总的来看,根据他们拖拖拉拉的表现,这是不可能的)。Whatever the reason, the end result is that while the worlds governments have hundreds of policies for tackling climate change, some of them very expensive—China, America and the European Union spend 0 billion a year on subsidising renewable energy—it is hard to say which policies are having the greatest effect.不管什么原因,结果就是尽管世界各个政府出台了几百条治理气候变化的政策,有的还代价高昂—中国、美国和欧盟每年花费1400亿补贴再生能源——很难说哪些政策是最有效的。So The Economist has made a stab at a global comparison of carbon-mitigation efforts. Chart 1 is the result. It ranks 20 policies and courses of action according to how much they have done to reduce the atmospheres stock of greenhouse gases. We have used figures from governments, the EU and UN agencies. As far as we know, this exercise has not been carried out before.因此,《经济学家》尝试制作了一张全球各国碳减排成果的比较图。图表1是结果,列出了前20个政策和行动方案以及每个政策方案的大气层温室气体的减少量。我们使用了政府、欧盟和联合国各机构公布的数据。据我们所知,以前还没有人做过这样的比较。Apples, meet oranges当苹果遇见橘子First, a health warning: the policies and actions on our list are not strictly comparable. Some are global, some regional and some national. Some are long-standing; some new. A couple are not policies at all, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, which led to the closure of polluting factories and to inefficient state farms reverting to grassland, locking up carbon.首先有个温馨提示:本次列出的政策和行动方案严格来说是不可比较的。一些是全球范围的,一些是区域性或国家层面的。一些是长期执行的,另一些是新政。有几条并不能算是政策,比如由苏联解体导致的污染工厂关门、效率底下的国有农场复归草原,锁住了碳。And the numbers almost all come with caveats. It is fairly easy to estimate how much carbon a new field full of solar cells or a nuclear-power plant saves by looking at the amount of electricity it produces in a year and how much carbon would have been emitted if fossil fuels had been used instead, based on the local mix of coal, gas and oil. But as Paul Joskow of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has pointed out, the standard “levelised” calculations, which divide the total amount of power a plant will produce over its lifetime by its total lifetime cost, are a poor way to compare fossil fuels and renewable energy.这些数据都显示出了警告信号。很容易估算出一片新铺满太阳能板或盖满核能工厂的旷野减少了多少碳排放,只要看看它每年发了多少电就可以了;另外,根据当地煤、气、油的混合状况也能很简单地估计出如果以化石燃料替代之,将多排放多少碳。然而,正如麻省理工学院的Paul Joskow指出的那样,标准的“水平化计算”——即用一座工厂整个使用年限所耗费的成本除以其产生的全部功率值,并不是一种比较化石燃料和再生能源的好方法。Other measures have problems, too. Take the effects of fuel-efficiency standards. Would companies have curtailed their cars emissions anyway to sell more of them to cost- and mileage-conscious drivers? And how much has better fuel efficiency encouraged drivers to drive farther?其他的测量方法也有问题。以燃料效率标准为例。司机对成本和公里数很敏感,公司会为了向他们销售更多汽车而减少汽车排量么?更高的燃料利用率又在多大程度上鼓励了司机多开车?A further complication is that many policies have benefits beyond—or indeed closer to hand than—those they offer in terms of climate. Burning less coal saves lives in the near future as well as reducing climate risks in decades to come. Saving forests preserves wildlife, not just carbon.更加复杂的是,很多政策所带来的好处不仅仅是治理气候。燃烧更少的煤炭可以在不远的将来挽救很多生命,也能减少未来几十年内气候变化带来的各种危机。拯救森林不止是控制碳排放,也能保护野生动物。So our table should be treated with caution. It is only safe to say that one policy is better than another in climate terms if it beats it by a wide margin.所以这次谈判应该谨慎对待。只有当某个政策提供了更多的回旋余地,才能说它是更好的。As it happens, though, there are some very wide margins to be found. One policy stands head and shoulders above all others. And it is one that few people other than climate-policy specialists will have thought of in this context: the Montreal protocol, a 1987 agreement to phase out substances such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used in air conditioners, refrigerators and so on. It was enacted to limit the damage such substances were doing to the ozone layer, a goal which it has achieved.正好,我们还有很多潜力有待发掘。有一个政策尤其值得注意,尽管除了环境政策研究专家以外其他人很少考虑到这一点:在蒙特利尔议定书中,一份1987年签订的协议要求逐步淘汰空调、电冰箱等家电中的氯氟化碳成分。这项协议意在防止此类物质继续损害臭氧层,目前这个目标已经达成。Like carbon dioxide and many other gases emitted by industry and agriculture—methane and nitrous oxide, for example—CFCs are greenhouse gases. And they are extremely potent ones, causing thousands of times more warming per molecule than carbon dioxide does. That means stopping CFC production, which was in the range of millions of tonnes a year, delivered a climate benefit equivalent to cutting carbon-dioxide emissions by billions of tonnes.氟氯化碳就像二氧化碳和其他被工业农业排放出来的气体(例如甲烷和一氧化二氮)一样,都属于温室气体。它们破坏力巨大,每分子所产生的热量比二氧化碳要高几千倍。这也就是意味着每年停止产生数百万吨的氟氯化碳给缓解气候变化带来的好处,相当于减排数十亿吨二氧化碳。Collateral benefits好处多多Guus Velders of the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment has compared the warming effect that would have come about if the emissions of such chemicals had continued to grow at the rate they were growing before the protocol with what has come about thanks to their banning. The net effect is equivalent to that of a whopping 135 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. That is more than twice todays total annual greenhouse-gas emissions, which are equivalent to about 50 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (carbon dioxide itself makes up about three-quarters of that, with methane, nitrous oxide and some gases used in industry making up the rest). Durwood Zaelke of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, a think-tank, says that if CFCs were uncontrolled the annual figure would be 8 billion tonnes higher. The Montreal protocol has had nearly as big an effect as all the rest of our list put together.荷兰国家公共健康和环境研究所的Guus Velders估算了如果这些化学气体按照协议书禁令出台之前的速度排放所带来的温室效应:其净排量相当于1350亿吨二氧化碳,比现在每年排放的温室气体总量(500亿吨)的两倍还要多(二氧化碳占温室气体排放量的四分之三,其余的是甲烷、一氧化二氮和其他工业气体)。“治理和可持续发展智库”的Durwood Zaelke表示,如果氟氯化碳的排放未受控制,则每年会多排放80亿吨。蒙特利尔协议书的效果比其他所有协议的总和还要显著。Trailing some way behind the Montreal protocol is a small group of measures—not really climate policies—that have been responsible for avoiding between 4% and 7% of greenhouse-gas emissions. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, nuclear power avoided the production of 2.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2010—that is, emissions would have been 2.2 billion tonnes higher if the same amount of electricity had been produced by non-nuclear plants. Energy from dams and other hydroelectric sources avoided 2.8 billion tonnes (though emissions of methane from the reservoirs behind some of those dams mean the net effects were less than that). Between them they generated 6,000 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2011, compared with 450TWhrs for wind and less than 60TWhrs for solar. The high rate at which new wind and solar capacity is being built will eat into this lead, but it will take some time to overturn it.蒙特利尔协议书之后的其余各项措施——不完全是气候政策——也减少了4%~7%的温室气体排放。根据国际原子能机构的研究,核能在2010年减排了22亿吨二氧化碳——即如果由非核能工厂发电,二氧化碳将增加22亿吨。大坝和其他水利发电减排了29亿吨二氧化碳(如果计入大坝后面蓄水库里产生的甲烷,则净减排量要少一些)。这些在2011年共发电6000太瓦时,相比之下,风力发电贡献了450太瓦时,太阳能发电则为60太瓦时。风能和太阳能发电会占有越来越高的比重,但这还需要时间彻底扭转目前的趋势。The other item in this group is something of a cheat. In 2007 Su Wei of Chinas foreign ministry said that his countrys one-child policy, by reducing the number of births between the late 1970s and the mid-2000s by 300m, had reduced carbon emissions by 1.3 billion tonnes in 2005 (because there were fewer people to consume goods which generated greenhouse gases in their production). Taking this argument further, one could say that the fall in global fertility since 1960 cut emissions even more. That is not exactly a climate policy. But it is a reminder that greenhouse gases are powerfully influenced by factors far beyond the scope of climate-change policies.另一项政策则不太切题。在2007年,中国外交部的苏伟表示,从 20世纪70年代到本世纪头十年的中期,中国的出生人口因独生子女政策减少了3亿,到2005年,碳排放量因此减少了13亿吨(因为生产商品的过程往往产生温室气体,人越少,消耗商品越少)。按照这个说法进一步思考,可以说,1960年后全球生育率的下降为减排做出的贡献更大。那压根不是气候政策。但是,这表明温室气体排放量会受到非气候变化政策因素的强烈影响。Three other lessons emerge. First, policies to slow or reverse deforestation are more important than one might expect. Trees absorb carbon as they grow and release it when they are cut down. According to a recent study in Science, declining deforestation in Brazil meant that the country produced 3.2 billion tonnes less atmospheric carbon dioxide between 2005 and 2013 than it would have if the tree-felling had continued unabated. That is 400m tonnes a year. The slowdown in deforestation in tropical countries is one of the reasons that the conversion of forests to farmland now accounts for only 11% of greenhouse-gas emissions globally, much less than 20 years ago.三个教训值得学习。第一,减缓或逆转森林伐木的政策比预想更重要。树木生长时能吸收二氧化碳,被砍伐时则会释放二氧化碳。据《科学》一项新研究表明,巴西实行减少森林砍伐的政策后,2005年到2013年间,其排放到大气中的二氧化碳比不实行政策前少了32亿吨。年排放量为4亿吨。林地转耕地的温室气体排放量现在仅占全球总排放量的11%,比20年前少了很多,而热带国家森林开伐的节奏放缓是缘由之一。The other reason for deforestations dramatically reduced share of total emissions, though, is that industrial emissions of carbon dioxide have continued to grow rapidly. The rise is not as fast as it might have been. Rules that make vehicles more efficient and improve the energy efficiency of buildings and appliances have done more than might be expected. America has been setting standards for vehicle greenhouse-gas emissions and fuel efficiency since the mid 1970s; the current rules are forecast to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions by 6 billion tonnes in 2012-25, meaning by about 460m tonnes a year. Americas Department of Transportation reckons that overall such rules have reduced carbon-dioxide emissions by a cumulative 14 billion tonnes. Europes equivalent regulations for passenger cars and light trucks do less (European vehicles were more efficient to start with) but are still respectable; being adopted by overseas manufacturers who want to sell cars in Europe gives them an unquantified extra clout.导致森林砍伐二氧化碳排放量占比大幅下降的另一个原因在于,二氧化碳的工业排放量持续快速上涨。增长速度与预期有差异。提高交通工具使用效率以及提高房屋与电器的能源效率的政策比预期更有效。20世纪70年代起,美国为交通工具的温室气体排放以及燃料效率制定了标准。当前的政策可以预测,2012-2025年间,二氧化碳排放量将减少60亿吨,相当于一年排放4.6亿吨。美国交通部估计,总体来说,这些政策已累计减少二氧化碳排放量140亿吨。欧洲针对轿车和轻型货车出台的类似政策,减排量不如美国(欧洲的交通工具之前更有效率),但依然显著。这些政策也适用于想在欧洲卖车的海外制造商,这部分影响力无法量化。Their time will come他们的时机将会来临New EU rules on the design of boilers and water heaters are expected to save 136m tonnes of carbon dioxide a year within six years. Chinas Development Research Centre and the World Bank say that on the basis of 2010 figures energy-efficiency targets for Chinese state-owned enterprises save about the same amount; that scheme has recently been much expanded.欧盟针对锅炉以及热水器设计的新规定,有望在六年内将年碳排放量减少1.36亿吨。中国发展研究中心及世界表示,根据2010年的数据,中国国有企业的能源效率目标也减少了相当量的碳排放,并近日计划扩大这一目标。Subsidies for solar and wind power do less than you might expect, considering the attention they receive. The European Environment Agency calculates that between mid-2008 and 2012, what it calls changes in the carbon intensity of energy (mainly, the rise in renewables) accounted for a third of the decline in carbon-dioxide emissions in the EU. Emissions fell 350m tonnes in that period, so renewable policies seem to be responsible for about 30m fewer tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, making them less effective than energy-efficiency measures.以太阳能及风能补贴政策受到的关注度来看,其表现低于预期。欧洲环境署估计,在2008年中期到2012年,被其称为能源碳强度(主要指可再生能源的增加)引起的变化占欧盟减排量的三分之一。在此期间,排放量下降3.5亿吨。因此,可再生能源政策可以解释约3300万以下的减排量,这使得此项政策不如能源效率政策有效。This estimate may be low. A separate calculation by Germanys environment ministry puts the figure for Germany alone at 100m tonnes in 2012. But even if the EU estimate is only half what it should be, renewables would still fall short of other carbon-mitigation policies. They are also extremely pricey. The cost of Germanys Energiewende (its transformation to a renewables-based electricity system) is 16 billion ( billion) a year. The cost of helping developing countries phase out CFCs under the Montreal protocol was just .4 billion all-told from 1990-2010. The Amazon Fund, which has done much to fight deforestation in Brazil, has mostly been funded by the Norwegian government at a cost of just 0m over 11 years.数据可能被低估了。另一个由德国环境部估计的数据显示,在2012年,仅德国的可再生能源政策产生的减排量就达1亿吨。但是,即使欧盟的估计仅为实际的一半,可再生能源政策的减排效果也远不如其他减排政策。这些政策的成本也很高。德国的能源转型成本(以新能源为基础的电力系统改革)是每年160万欧元(210万美元)。1990-2010年间,德国根据蒙特利尔议定书,帮助发展中国家逐步淘汰氟氯碳化物的总成本仅24亿美元。在巴西,奋力对抗森林砍伐的亚马逊基金会主要得到挪威政府的资助,11余年的成本仅为7.6亿美元。Over the next few years, the relative weights of all these policies will change. Nuclear energy is being phased out in Germany and may not recover to its pre-Fukushima heights in Japan. Although it is growing in China, its share of worldwide electricity generation—currently about a seventh—is likely to decline. The same may be true of hydropower. The share of solar and wind power, on the other hand, will rise as costs fall and capacity increases (installed capacity for these renewables doubled in 2012-14).在接下来的几年,所有政策的相对权重会发生变化。德国会逐步废除核能,日本对核能的重视程度也可能无法恢复到福岛核泄漏之前的水平。虽然在中国,核能政策的权重在不断增强,但其在世界范围内的发电份额—约七分之——可能下降。水力发电可能也面临一样的遭遇。另一方面,由于成本下降、容量增大(这几类可再生能源的装机容量在2012-2014翻倍)太阳能和风能的份额可能会增加。The Economist asked Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists who study emissions policies and actions, to calculate the policies likely to have the biggest impact in 2020. Their findings, in chart 2, suggest that the influence of the EUs renewables regime will grow considerably, though Europe will still be far from the zero-carbon energy system greens long for. Chinese efforts to boost renewables and energy efficiency are also likely to start bearing a lot more fruit. So, they think, could the UNs Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which finances greenhouse-gas reduction measures in developing countries to offset emissions in rich ones.本刊邀请来自气候行动追踪组织一群研究排放政策和行动的科学家,估计2020年最可能产生最大影响的政策。他们的结果(如图2)表示,虽然欧洲依然达不到零碳排放能源系统的要求,欧盟可再生能源制度的影响力会大幅增强。中国推进可再生能源以及能源效率的政策也很可能产生更多的成效。因此,他们在想,资助发展中国家温室气体减排措施的联合国清洁发展机制是否可以补偿发达国家的排放量。Much more to do任重道远These estimates work on the basis of current policies. But one possible new measure would make a big difference. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are ozone-friendly replacements for CFCs, and are one of the fastest-growing greenhouse gases, having risen 40% since 1990. Emissions of HFCs are unrestricted, though CDM investments are used to reduce them in some cases. If the Montreal protocol were quickly amended to include them, says Mr Zaelke, it might do almost as much for greenhouse-gas emissions in the next 35 years as it did in 1990-2010.这些估计都是基于当前的政策。但是,一项合理的新政策将会有重大意义。氢氟碳化物不破坏臭氧层,是对氟氯碳化物的替代品,也是增长最快的温室气体之一。1990年后,其排放量增长了40%。清洁发展机制曾投资减少一定程度的氢氟碳化物量,但其排放量仍不受限制。Zaelke表示,如果蒙特利尔议定书经修正后包含了这些内容,今后35年的温室气体排放量将达到1990-2010的水平。Saving the equivalent of some 130 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide so cheaply would be a big win. But it is still only a tenth of what would need to be done to ensure that the temperature in 2100 is no more than 2C higher than it was at the time of the Industrial Revolution—the limit that the countries of the world have committed themselves to. Without the measures listed in chart 1 emissions might be equivalent to almost 70 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, rather than 50 billion. But even the lower number is too high to meet the stated goal, and the overall trend is up, not down. World leaders gathering in New York are not only being vague about their climate policies. They are being dilatory, too.以如此低的成本减少约1300亿吨二氧化碳排放量意义重大。但是,若要保2100年地球温度与工业革命时期相比不超过2C——各国承诺的指标,其工作只完成了十分之一。如果没有表1列出的各项政策,年碳排放量大约为700亿吨,而不是500亿吨。但即使碳排放量减少,对于完成既定目标来说,排放量依然很高,而且,碳排放量的总趋势还在增加而不是减少。聚集在纽约的各国领导,不仅对其气候政策界定不清,行动上也不够积极。翻译:杨诗露;校对:黄梅译文属译生译世201506/379004Welcome back.Thank you.All right,So,Kinda thrilled to be here.欢迎回来 谢谢 现在感到很兴奋吗Just a little bit.So you are just back from Afghanistan,first of all是有点兴奋 你们都刚从阿富汗回国 首先呢Im so happy to that all of you are so safe and welcome back,how do you feel很高兴看到你们都安全地回来 欢迎回来 现在感觉如何OMG,this is like the most amazing thing,I cant even believe Im standing here right now天哪 我感觉这是让我感到开心的事情 我都不敢相信我正站在这里I saw and I was kinda we have to have them on the show for sure我当时在网上看你们时就觉得你们要出现在我们的秀场上When you are there any close calls for anybody你们在那里时有没有发生什么意外This is my 7th time.7th time.Yes,7th time in the middle east这是我第七次 第七次啊 是啊 是我第七年在中东and we didnt have close calls this time这次我们没有发生意外But in when I was there we did get rocket fire on our base,about 500 yards from where we were sleeping and we were asleep不过年我在那里时我们基地遭到发射的火箭 大概离我们500码的距离 我们都已经在睡觉But there some procedure in the place for when It happens,thats kinda make us feel safer但是当时我们有躲避的地方 让我们有安全感Putting on our gear,go get in the banker and kinda wait,we always have 9 mil strapped to our legs.Me too,I got one too,just in case我们会穿上防护衣 钻进坦克里 就在里面等着 我们也总是随身带着我们的9mil步 我也有一个 以防万一I wanted to see you everybody when I saw all of you.This is amazing我早就想看到你们 这感觉真的很棒 /201610/472000

Walking in London漫步伦敦Footfalls足音Urban pedestrians buck a national trend伦敦步行者打破全国性趋势LONDON is a city made for walking.Unlike, for instance, Los Angeles its centre is easily accessible on foot.Outer boroughs are no more than an hour or two away.Its curved streets, in contrast to the rigid grid of New York, welcome idle wanderers and busy commuters alike.But despite traffic queues and teeming underground carriages most prefer to drive or to squeeze on to the Tube to get around the city.This is starting to change.伦敦是个适合步行的城市。不像洛杉矶这样的城市,伦敦市中心对步行者来说很方便。步行去外区也不会超过一两个小时。伦敦蜿蜒的街道和纽约方正平直的街道形成鲜明对比,迎接着悠闲的流浪汉和忙碌的上班族。尽管道路很堵、地铁很挤,但大部分人还是喜欢驾车或挤地铁在城市穿梭。这一切都将开始改变。Between 2001 and 2011 the number of trips made daily on foot in London increased by 12%.Nearly a third of the Londoners sampled made a continuous walk of 30 minutes once a week between 2010 and 2011 to get from place to place, rather than for exercise.Each day 6.2m walks are made across the city.2001年到2011年间,每天在伦敦步行的人数增长了12%。在此期间,被调查的伦敦人中有将近三分之一的人一个星期内至少有一次超过30分钟的步行体验,不是为了锻炼身体,而是单纯为了从一个地方到另一个地方。每天有620万人在城市步行。And both rich and poor walk a similar amount.In areas such as Kensington and Chelsea 11% walk for at least 30 minutes five times a week or more.In Tower Hamlets 12% of residents do.One of the largest changes in the city over the past decade is the number of pedestrians, says Michèle Dix of Transport for London (TfL), which runs the citys transport networks.On July 10th TfL launched the Roads Task Force, with plans to spruce up pavements.在步行上,穷人和富人都差不多。在肯辛顿-切尔西区,11%的人一周内至少会有5次超过30分钟的步行体验。在陶尔哈姆莱茨区,有12%的居民也会这么做。伦敦交通局(负责伦敦交通网络的运营)的米歇尔·迪克斯说,过去十年这座城市最大的变化是行人的数量。7月10日,伦敦交通局发动道路工作组,有计划地修缮人行道。Several reasons account for the walking boom.The number of Londoners increased by 12% from 7.3m in 2001 to 8.2m in 2011, and Tube trains are broiling and overcrowded.But other factors also encourage pedestrians.In 2004 Ken Livingstone, then mayor of London, vowed to make London a “walkable city”.Some of his plans were carried on by Boris Johnson, the current mayor.These include a scheme to create clearly-marked maps for use across the city.Of 33 boroughs in London 22 now have the distinctive yellow-branded signs on their streets.All TfL-owned property (such as Tube stations and bicycle-hire points) is covered by the scheme.This deters tourists from popping on the Tube to travel one stop from Covent Garden to Leicester Square, a distance of 0.3m (0.5km) says Tony Armstrong of Living Streets, a charity for pedestrians.行人的暴增有好几个原因。从2001年的730万到2011年的820万,伦敦人口增长了12%,地铁变得又热又挤。但是其他几个因素也在鼓励着人们步行。2004年,伦敦市长肯·利文斯通承诺把伦敦建成一座步行城市。他的一些计划被现任市长鲍里斯·约翰逊继续执行。伦敦33个区中的22个在街道上树立了独特的黄色标志牌。伦敦交通局所有的财产(比如地铁和租车点)都包含在计划之内。Living Streets(一个为行人设立的慈善机构)的托尼·阿姆斯特朗说,这打消了游客从科芬园到莱斯特广场这一站路(仅500米)也要乘坐地铁的念头。Streets are also becoming more pedestrian-friendly.Exhibition Road in South Kensington was redeveloped in 2011.Pavement curbs were removed and tarmac replaced by granite bricks.Fewer cars now go down the road, which stretches from Hyde Park to the museums and restaurants around the station, encouraging swarms of pedestrians.In June plans to develop a walkway by the Thames in Vauxhall were announced, turning a neglected part of London into something resembling the High Line in New York (which transformed a disused railway track into a lively public garden).步行也变得越来越方便。南肯辛顿的会展路于2011年重新开发。路边石被移除,柏油路也被花岗石路面代替。车站附近这条从海德公园延生到物馆和餐馆的路上车子更少了,这也有利于人们步行。六月,一系列将位于泰晤士河边沃克斯豪尔工厂内的一条走道建成类似于纽约高线公园(一个充满生气的公园,由一条废弃的铁路改造而成)的计划正式宣布。Londoners may also be more aware of the advantages of walking.Health campaigns like the NHSs “Live Well” emphasise that walking is the easiest form of exercise.Rubber wristband pedometers, such as “FitBit” and “FuelBand”, are also increasingly popular.伦敦人也可能更清楚走路的好处。像NHS(英国国家医疗务体系)“Live Well”这样的健康宣传活动都在强调走路是最简单的一种锻炼方式。“FitBit”和“FuelBand”这些品牌的橡胶腕带计步器也越来越受欢迎。But the capital is bucking the national trend.Although in 2011 walking was up across the country, it has seen an overall decline of 27% in Britain since 1995.This is partly caused by fewer children walking to school.And while rural rambles are still popular, fewer people are walking to their weekly grocery shop.Many more are shopping online.Local authorities want to change this.Pedestrians spend an average of £373 (1) a month, compared with £226 for drivers, according to data from TfL.Ailing high streets and town centres need to win back walkers.Learning from Londons incentives would be a start.但是,发生在首都的这一切与全国趋势不符。虽然2011年全国步行的人数有所上涨,但总体来说却比1995年减少了27%。部分原因可能是走路去上学的孩子更少了。在农村走路仍然很常见,但每周走路去杂货店买东西的人却变少了。更多的人选择网上购物。地方政府想要改变这种状况。伦敦交通局的数据表明,步行者平均每月花费373英镑(571美元),而驾车者每月只花226英镑。状况不佳的商业大街和城镇中心应该赢回这些步行者。学习来自伦敦的激励机制将是个开端。译者:周洋 校对:毛慧 译文属译生译世 /201512/418491

Russian pensions俄罗斯养老金An unaffordable system付不起的制度Russia’s prime minister signs a disastrous pension reform俄罗斯总理签署了一项灾难性的养老金改革计划Vladimir Putin is facing a dilemma: how can Russia’s president fulfil his campaign promises to increase social spending, especially when they were directed toward his political base, while also ensuring that the country’s deficit does not become unsustainable? He is keen to prolong the past decade’s economic stability, which was his biggest electoral asset.弗拉基米尔·普京面临着困境:作为俄罗斯总统,他怎么才能在实现竞选中做出的增加社会出的承诺的同时,特别是这些承诺都是维护为了他的政治基础做出的,但是同时又要保俄罗斯的赤字不会变得不可承受。普京热衷于延续过去十年经济稳定的状态,这是他竞选中的最大优势。If the direction of the country’s pension system is any indication, Mr Putin and his advisers are choosing short-term social and political stability at the expense of long-term growth and investment. On October 1st Dmitry Medvedev, the prime minister and former president, signed a long-expected strategy for reforming the pension system that would, among other things, nearly eliminate the funded component, in which workers pay into a personal investment account they claim upon retirement. The money freed up from this plan is supposed to plug the billion hole in the pay-as-you-go system.如果俄罗斯养老金体系的方向有所暗示的话,普京和他的顾问都是选择短期的社会政治稳定,牺牲长期的发展和投资。10月1日,现任总理,即前任总统德米特里·梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)签署了人们期盼已久的一项策略,改革养老金制度。工人向个人投资账户中存钱,在退休之后便可以拥有这一账户的所有权。但是在新的养老金制度下,除了其他方面以外,这种资金成分几乎被完全取消。这项计划的腾出来的钱应该能够堵上现收现付制度造成的100亿美元的缺口。The strategy signed by Mr Medvedev calls for the funded component to decrease from 6% to 2% of the overall pension system. (The plan is still preliminary.) At the moment, those funds are just 1.8 trillion roubles (.8 billion), but they act as a catalyst for domestic investment and support a growing industry of fund managers. The funded pillar could also go a long way towards filling the gap in the Russian market for long-term financing, which is necessary for infrastructure development. With those funds gone, any notion of turning Moscow into a global financial centre—a favourite talking point of Mr Medvedev’s presidency—would probably be finished.梅德韦杰夫签署的这项策略要求资金成分占整个养老金体系的比重从6%下降到2%。(这仍是初步计划。)目前,这些资金大约只有1.8万亿卢布(58亿美元),但是能够刺激国内投资,持资金管理者行业的发展。资金柱也可以经过长期发展,填补俄罗斯市场长期资金筹措的空白,着对于基础设施发展来说十分必要。梅德韦杰夫任总统期间,最喜欢说的就是把莫斯科变成国际金融中心。但如果没有这些资金的话,任何这种想法都可以停止了。Virtually all Russia’s best economists, as well as the technocrats inside the finance ministry, have warned against cutting the funded pillar. Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister, has waged a campaign in the pages of Vedomosti, a newspaper, against the idea. Vladimir Nazarov of the Gaidar Institute calls it a “real disaster” that will only finance the pension fund’s current deficit for six years, after which the deficit will begin to grow again—and this time without the money in the funded portion as a stopgap.几乎俄罗斯最好的经济学家以及财政部的技术官僚都提出警告,反对减少资金柱。前财政部长阿列克谢·库德林在俄罗斯商业日报上发起一场运动反对这种想法。盖达尔研究所的弗拉基米尔.纳扎罗夫将它称为一场“真正的灾难”,只会为如今的养老基金赤字提供六年的资金,六年之后,赤字将会再次开始增长,这次就没有资助部分的资金来临时替补了。The only way forward, argue nearly all experts, is to raise Russia’s low pension age of 55 for women and 60 for men. Both the IMF and the members of Strategy 2020, an expert group formed by the Russian government, call for a gradual increase of the pension age to 63.几乎所有的专家都说未来唯一的方法就是提高如今较低的领取养老金的年龄。女性55岁就可以领取养老金,男性则为60岁。国际货币基金组织和由俄罗斯政府组成的专家组“2020战略”的成员都要求逐渐将退休年龄提高到63岁。The move is thought to be politically dangerous, if not impossible. Mr Putin has increasingly relied on the support of the rural population and industrial workers, as well as the 40% or so of the electorate who are elderly. One of Mr Putin’s many pre-election promises, now turned into official directives, was to keep the pension age intact. That order left the government with few options.人们认为,这一举动在政治上是危险的,也许也是不可能的。普京越来越依赖于农村人口,工业工人,以及大约40%的老年选民的持。普京在选举之前做出的一个承诺就是保持退休年龄不变,如今这已经变成了官方指令。这一命令让政府没有什么选择。Mr Medvedev and his team were thus handed an unenviable task. No one disputes that today’s pension system, created in 2002, needs some kind of reform. Part of the problem is demography. Declining birth rates in the 1980s and 1990s have left Russia with too few workers to support those in retirement; birth rates have stabilised in recent years but too late to affect the looming pension crisis. Today there are 100 workers for every 87 pensioners, says Evsey Gurvich of the Economic Expert Group, who led the Strategy 2020 pension task-force; by 2020, that figure will be 100 workers for 100 pensioners.梅德韦杰夫以及他的团队就收到了一项棘手的任务。如今的养老金制度始建于2002年,它需要一些改革,这点大家都同意。一部分问题在人口分布。二十世纪八九十年代生育率下降使得俄罗斯的劳动力极为缺乏,不足以持那些退休人员。近几年来生育率保持稳定,但是要想影响即将到来的养老金危机已经为时已晚。2020策略养老金特别小组的领导者,经济专家小组的Evsey Gurvich说,如今,每100个工人要负担87个养老金领取者的费用,到2020年,每100个工人将要负担100个养老金领取者的费用。Mr Gurvich warns of a creeping “gerontocracy”. He predicts a deepening of “paternalistic thinking”, in which citizens regard the state, and not themselves, as the source of their pensions. Perhaps that’s exactly what the Kremlin has in mind.Gurvich警告人们小心悄悄出现的“老人政府”。他预测,“家长式思考”会更为严重,公民会将国家而不是自己视为养老金的来源。或者这正是俄罗斯政府所想的。翻译:孙齐圣译文属译生译世 /201607/456416

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