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During his time in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin has drawn on two potent sources of political strength: high oil prices, which fell into his lap during the boom; and patriotic fervour, which he stoked by engineering regional conflicts. Now the oil price is falling like a stone. Will the Russian president be able to rely on patriotic mobilisation alone?在主政克林姆林宫期间,弗拉基米尔#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)利用两大因素有效地扩大自己的政治影响力:一个是高油价,在繁荣时期,这一好处得来全不费工夫;另一个是爱国主义热情,他通过挑起地区冲突助长了这种热情。如今油价正直线下跌,这位俄罗斯总统能够单纯依赖于民众的爱国热情吗?The past decade brought two periods of surging oil prices: one that ended in 2008 amid the flames of the financial crisis; and another that began barely three years later. But last week a barrel of oil fetched as little as , from 5 in June, and Russian producers must be feeling the squeeze.过去10年油价经历了两轮飙升:一轮葬送在了2008年金融危机的大火之中;短短3年过后又开始了新一轮。但上周油价从6月的每桶105美元跌至70美元低位,俄罗斯生产商肯定感受到了压力。The latest slowdown marks a moment of danger for Mr Putin. In the decade and a half since he first became president, the government has strengthened its control over oil and gas and increased its role in the financial sector. The creeping tide of nationalisation eroded incentives for investment, and swept away the resources needed for private investment. This is hardly without precedent; in resource-rich countries people are usually enthusiastic about nationalisation. But they expect benefits.当前油价跌势使普京面临一个危险时刻。自他14年前首次担任俄罗斯总统以来,俄罗斯政府加大了对油气的控制,并增强了政府在金融业的作用。逐渐兴起的国有化浪潮削弱了投资激励,卷走了私人投资所需的资源。这并非没有先例:在资源丰富的国家,人们通常对国有化热情十足。但他们期待的是好处。In the early years of Mr Putin’s presidency, they were not disappointed. The oil bounty pushed up consumption, stimulating growth. Most of the money was distributed through market channels. But the second oil price boom did not translate into economic performance as smoothly. In 2012 and 2013, when prices were often above 0, the economy was close to stagnation.在普京总统任期的最初几年,他们没有感到失望。石油财富推升了消费,刺激了经济增长。其中多数资金通过市场渠道进行了分配。但第二轮油价飙涨却未能改善经济表现。2012年和2013年,当油价常常突破100美元时,俄罗斯经济却接近停滞。A dearth of investment led to rising costs, consumption increases ran out of steam, and the oil riches instead had to be meted out through government largesse. By the beginning of this decade, public spending was more than a quarter higher than in the middle of the last one, much of it going on social assistance, higher pensions and public sector wages, as well as military spending.投资不足导致成本上升,消费增长失去动力,石油财富只能通过政府出进行分配。到本10年初,政府公共出比上一个10年中期高出逾四分之一,其中很多流向社会救助、养老金提高、公共部门薪资以及军事开。This approach is sometimes called “resource nationalism”, and we have seen it before: in Iraq under Saddam Hussein, for example, or in Venezuela under Hugo Chávez. It inevitably involves confrontation with the west as the regime seals itself off.这种方法有时被称作“资源民族主义”,我们以前曾看到过:例如在萨达姆#8226;侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)统治下的伊拉克,或者乌戈#8226;查韦斯(Hugo Chávez)领导下的委内瑞拉。随着该政权将自己封闭起来,不可避免的要与西方形成对峙。Politicians who follow this path typically proclaim themselves regional leaders, and engineer conflicts with neighbouring countries that help patriotic mobilisation. Confrontations abroad are a source of legitimacy at home. They offer an excuse for repression, and they draw people into a nationalist narrative. The declared goals of the conflict are irrelevant; what matters is the perpetuation of conflict itself. Seen this way, hopeless fights seem rational, despite the cost.走上这条道路的政治家一般自我标榜为地区领袖,他们会挑起与邻国的冲突,这些冲突有利于利用爱国主义热情。海外冲突是国内合法性的来源。它们为镇压提供了借口,并把人们带入民族主义叙事(nationalist narrative)。公开的冲突目标并不重要:重要的是冲突的延续。从这种角度来看,尽管要付出高昂代价,但毫无希望的战争似乎是合理的。The transition from soft authoritarianism to totalitarian rule depends on three preconditions: popular support, the acquiescence of elites, and an economy that is not deteriorating too quickly. For now, popular support is Mr Putin’s strongest suit. After a period of decline, his approval rating is said to have jumped to 85 per cent in June.从软性威权主义(soft authoritarianism)过渡到极权主义需要3个先决条件:民众持、精英阶层的默许,同时经济没有出现过快恶化。目前,民众持是普京最大的优势。在经过一段时期的下滑后,据说他的持率在6月跃升至85%。This may be misleading: in an authoritarian climate, such numbers are extremely dubious. Public discussion, such as it is, takes place in the shadows, and opinion polls offer only a distorted reflection. Although anti-western feelings are intensifying, Russians’ lifestyles are now more westernised than ever before. Two years ago, tens of thousands took to Moscow’s streets to demand modernisation.这可能具有误导性:在威权体制下,这些数字极其可疑。公共讨论是在阴影之下进行的,民意调查也只是一种歪曲的反映。尽管反西方的情绪在加剧,但俄罗斯人的生活方式比以往任何时候都更加西化。两年前,数万人曾走上莫斯科街头要求实现现代化。The elites have lost some of their nerve in the face of Mr Putin’s apparent popularity. But it is the economy – the double blow of sanctions and a falling oil price – that poses the most serious threat to the president. Repressive institutions are not completed yet, and the country is not sufficiently closed. The Kremlin is hesitating, wondering whether to escalate the confrontation, or ease off while the new economic reality sinks in.面对普京表面上的受欢迎程度,精英们失去了一些勇气。但对普京构成最严重威胁的是俄罗斯的经济,该国经济受到西方制裁以及油价下跌的双重打击。高压机制尚未完成,该国还没有完全闭关锁国。克里姆林宫正在犹豫不决,在人们意识到新的经济现实之际,要将冲突升级还是要缓和冲突。But the logic of resource nationalism knows no reversal. A regime that will not let go of its country’s natural riches cannot create prosperity. Instead, Mr Putin must channel the patriotic spirits of his people. And that means intensifying his conflict with the west.但“资源民族主义”的逻辑是不可逆转的。一个不愿放弃掌控本国自然财富的政权是无法缔造繁荣的。而普京必须疏导俄罗斯人民的爱国主义精神。这意味着需要加剧他与西方的冲突。 /201412/346742The world’s airlines have pledged to “never let another aircraft vanish” as they laid out plans to ensure that aircraft in flight can be properly tracked to avoid a repeat of the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.全球航空公司承诺“不再让另一架飞机消失”,它们已制定计划,确保飞行中的飞机得到妥善追踪,以避免马航(Malaysia Airlines) MH370航班失踪的事件重演。In a sign of how the industry seeks to learn lessons from the disaster, the International Air Transport Association on Tuesday said it would create a “task force” to examine the options available for tracking commercial aircraft. Conclusions would be published by December.国际航空运输协会(International Air Transport Association)周二表示,将成立“特别工作组”,研究追踪商用飞机的可用选择。结论将最迟在12月公布。这一迹象表明,航空业希望从此次灾难吸取教训。The development came as Malaysia released an official transcript of the last words spoken in the cockpit, saying there was “no indication of anything abnormal”.与此同时,马来西亚公布了MH370驾驶舱的最后通话内容的官方记录,表示其中“不存在任何不正常迹象”。“In a world where our every move seems to be tracked, there is disbelief both that an aircraft could simply disappear and that the flight data and cockpit voice recorders are so difficult to recover,” said Tony Tyler, Iata director-general, as the association opened its annual operations conference in Kuala Lumpur.国际航空运输协会总干事汤彦麟(Tony Tyler)表示:“在我们的一举一动似乎都可以追踪的当今世界,人们很难想象一架飞机竟然会消失,而飞行数据和驾驶舱语音记录器这么难回收。”该协会的年度运营大会在吉隆坡开幕。“Air France 447 [which crashed in the South Atlantic in 2009] brought similar issues to light a few years ago and some progress was made. But that must be accelerated. We cannot let another aircraft simply vanish,” he said. “And it is equally clear that governments must make better use of the passenger data that they mandate airlines to provide.”“几年前,法航(Air France)447航班(2009年在南大西洋坠毁)揭露了一些类似的问题,我们取得了一些进展。但我们必须加快这一过程。我们不能再让另一架飞机就这么消失,”他表示,“同时,各国政府显然必须更好地利用它们要求航空公司提供的乘客数据。”Iata represents 240 airlines comprising 84 per cent of global air traffic.国际航空运输协会代表240家航空公司,占全球航空业务量的84%。The search for flight MH370 has entered its fourth week, with 10 planes and nine ships searching a roughly 120,000 sq km area west of the Australian city of Perth on Tuesday.对马航MH370航班的搜寻工作已进入第四周,周二有10架飞机和9艘舰船在澳大利亚珀斯以西大约12万平方公里的搜索区域进行搜寻。The effort is being run by an organisation set up by the Australian government, known as the Joint Agency Coordination Centre. It is headed by retired air chief marshal Angus Houston. The JACC will continue to work with Malaysian authorities.搜寻工作由澳大利亚政府成立的联合机构协调中心(Joint Agency Coordination Centre)负责。该中心由已退休的澳大利亚空军上将奥古斯#8226;豪斯顿(Angus Houston)领导。该中心将继续与马来西亚政府合作。 /201404/283659As the Chinese stock market slumps, the country’s government has stepped in boldly, unveiling a series of measures to prop up shares. But those efforts have done little to stabilize the market, with stocks continuing to slide on Wednesday.上海——中国股市暴跌之际,该国政府积极介入,已经推出了一系列托市措施。但是这些努力几乎没有起到稳定市场的效果,周三,中国股市继续收跌。The losses create a political and economic challenge for the nation’s leadership.对于中国领导层来说,这种暴跌带来了政治和经济上的挑战。Beijing could face social unrest if the sell-off accelerates, since tens of millions of ordinary investors have plowed their savings into the market. The psychological toll on investors, in turn, could erode consumer confidence, dragging down growth in the aly slowing economy.如果抛售加速,北京可能会面临社会动荡,因为数以千万计的普通投资者把自己的储蓄投入了股市。投资者承受的心理压力,可能会削弱消费信心,拖累已经放缓的经济增长。“The stock market is connected to the real economy,” says Fraser Howie, a longtime Asia banker and co-author of “Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise.” “When you see such violent moves, you don’t know what kinds of ripples are going to come down.”“股市与实体经济相连,”侯伟(Fraser Howie)说。“当你看到这种剧烈的动荡,就不知道会有何种影响蔓延开来。”侯伟长期在亚洲业工作,是《红色资本主义:中国非凡崛起之下的脆弱金融基础》(Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China#39;s Extraordinary Rise)一书的合著者。The Chinese government is moving swiftly to prevent any broader fallout.中国政府正在迅速采取行动,防止产生影响更加广泛的后果。The country’s central bank has made extra cash available to fund share purchases. Brokerage houses have been ordered to pump billions of dollars into the market. And government-backed funds have earmarked billions more to prop up the shares of flagging companies.中国央行提供了额外的现金以供买入股票。经纪公司受命将数亿资金注入股市。由政府撑的一个基金则另外拨付了巨额资金,为股价低迷的公司护盘。The mess in China has not roiled global markets. That is partly because the “Chinese financial system is largely sealed off from the global financial system,” Derek Scissors, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, said in a report.全球市场并没有因为中国的混乱而陷入动荡。美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)分析师史剑道(Derek Scissors)在一份报告中称,这在一定程度上是因为“中国的金融体系在很大程度上与全球金融体系相隔绝”。For now, the action is domestically focused. China’s Communist Party leaders are trying to restore confidence and stabilize the market before things get too ugly at home, introducing new fixes nearly every day. On Wednesday, China’s Ministry of Finance pledged to “adopt measures to safeguard the stability of capital markets,” and in particular protect state-owned financial enterprises. The move signals that this broad-based effort is being directed from the very top echelons of the state.目前采取的行动主要集中在国内。中国共产党的领导人几乎每天都出台新的解决措施,试图在国内情况变得太不堪之前,恢复投资者的信心、稳定市场。周三,中国财政部甚至发誓要采取措施,以保障资本市场的稳定,特别是保护国有金融企业。这显示出,这场广泛的运动是由国家最高领导层指挥的。“There are no buyers, only sellers,” said Francis Cheung, a market analyst at CLSA, the brokerage house. “So the government is buying, and they’ll ramp up buying to stabilize the market.”“市场上没有买盘,只有卖盘,”里昂券(CLSA)的分析师郑名凯(Francis Cheung)说。“因此政府正在买入,他们还会进一步买入股票,来稳定市场。”Trouble is, they haven’t found the right formula. Despite the latest batch of moves, China’s markets were battered on Wednesday. In Shanghai, prices plunged 5.9 percent. In Shenzhen, they fell 2.5 percent. The damage is also sping regionally, to Hong Kong and Japan, where shares also fell sharply.麻烦的是,他们还没有找到正确的办法。尽管采取了这批新的措施,周三中国股市还是遭受重挫。沪市跌5.9%,深市跌2.5%。影响还蔓延到了周边地区,香港和日本股市也大幅下跌。While the markets are up over all for the year, the recent downward spiral is creating substantial pain. Both major exchanges are off between 30 percent to 40 percent in six weeks, putting them in bear market territory.虽然从一年的周期来看,股市仍然有涨幅,但近期的下跌行情造成了巨大打击。在过去六周里,这两大交易所暴跌30%至40%,进入了熊市。The numbers don’t give the complete picture either. In recent days, many stocks have been halted because of exchange rules that are supposed to guard against too much misery in a single trading session. At least a third of the companies listed on the major stock exchanges had trading in their shares suspended on Wednesday.但这些数字也没有勾勒出完整的画面。近日来,不少个股已经跌停。中国股市有跌停机制,是为了防止在单一交易日内产生太惨烈的冲击。在沪深两市上市的公司,至少有三分之一在周三停牌。Those market dynamics can create a chain reaction of selling. China’s major exchanges prevent a stock from falling more than 10 percent on any given day. When that happens, analysts say, many investors opt for selling other shares, broadening the sell-off. Then when the market opens the next day, they continue selling down the stock that was previously halted, effectively prolonging the turmoil.这种规则可能会造成连锁抛售状况。沪深两市不允许股价在同一天跌幅超过10%。分析师说,当一只股票跌停,很多投资者就选择卖出其他股票,让更多股票遭到抛售。而当股市第二天开盘的时候,投资者会继续抛售前一天跌停的股票,实际上延长了动荡的时间。“It just delays the correction, so it delays the downturn,” said Mr. Cheung at CLSA.“这只是推迟了调整,因此延长了低迷时间,”里昂券的郑名凯说。While China’s stock markets have a long history of volatility, the environment is different now. The country’s economy has been sluggish. The stock market is far bigger than it has ever been, second in size only to that of the ed States.虽然中国股市长期以来都有较强的波动性,但现在已经不同于过去。目前该国经济形势不景气。股市规模也远远大于以往任何时候,在全球仅次于美国。And aggressive investors, many of them first-time buyers of equities, have been playing a different game. They were buying stocks with borrowed funds, using leverage as if they were “barbarians at the gate.”而激进型投资者也在玩一个不同的游戏,他们中不乏首次炒股的新手。这些人使用杠杆,借钱来炒股,就像“门口的野蛮人”一样。The panic, in part, is being driven by concerns about the huge amount of borrowing. Some analysts estimated that margin buying reached about 0 billion, or as much as 15 percent of the value of all tradable shares on the two major exchanges.人们对负债炒股的金额巨大感到担忧,这在部分上推动了市场的恐慌情绪。一些分析师估计,目前保金交易达到约5500亿美元,相当于沪深两市所有流通股价值的15%。Fear is gripping the market after a phenomenal bull run in which mainland China’s major stock indexes doubled, tripled and even quintupled over the past few years. By the time the market peaked, in early June, share prices in China were among the most expensive in the world, vastly costlier than in the ed States, Europe or Hong Kong.在过去几年里,内地主要股指涨了一倍、两倍甚至三倍。在大牛市之后,市场陷入了恐惧。行情在6月初达到最高点时,中国的股价堪称是全世界最昂贵的,远超美国、欧洲和香港的水平。Investors in mainland China, in other words, had to pay a huge premium to buy domestic shares, a sign the country’s stock market was frothy. Some analysts have noted that the price-to-earnings ratio of companies listed on China’s start-up index, called ChiNext, were far higher than those listed on the Nasdaq stock market in 2000, when the Internet bubble burst.换句话说,内地投资者购买国内股票时不得不付溢价。这个迹象表明,中国股市存在泡沫。一些分析人士指出,中国创业板上市公司目前的市盈率,远高于2000年互联网泡沫破灭时,纳斯达克(Nasdaq)上市公司的水平。Just a few weeks ago, the pipeline of initial public stock offerings was robust. There was the promise of innovative companies that could use the capital markets, rather than the banks, as a source of cash, and the prospect of new bourses being set up for China’s technology start-ups.就在几周前,新股发行的势头还颇为强劲。创新公司有望通过资本市场而非募集资金,并且中国还有望设立新交易所,面向科技初创企业。China’s state-run news media, including The People’s Daily, helped hype the rip-roaring market. As recently as April, news media said that the bull market had “just begun,” only to warn some weeks later of the risks.包括《人民日报》在内的中国官方新闻媒体,也帮助了对热火朝天的股市的炒作。最近一幕发生在4月。新闻媒体当时称牛市“才刚刚开始”,但仅过了几周,就转而发出了危险警告。Since then, sentiment has soured, and investors have lost confidence. The worry, analysts said, is that it could be a prolonged downturn, like the one that began in 2007 and lasted about seven years.在那之后,情绪发生了变化,投资者失去信心。分析人士称,人们担心的是,它可能会成为一场旷日持久的低迷,就像之前那次一样。那次下跌始于2007年,持续了大约七年。The sharp decline in prices wiped out trillions of dollars in value from a market that at one point topped trillion. Still, the decline has not yet erased all, or even most, of the gains. China’s major exchanges remain up about 75 percent from a year ago, in part because big state-owned companies have fared better.股价的大幅下跌导致数万亿美元的市值从股市蒸发,中国股市的总市值一度达到了10万亿美元。然而,下跌尚未抵消掉全部甚至大部分的涨幅。中国两大交易所的指数仍比一年前高出大约75%。这在一定程度上是因为大型国企表现得比其他公司好。In late June, the government cut interest rates, which is ordinarily a good sign for stocks, since it makes them more attractive relative to bank deposits. But share prices fell anyway.6月末,政府调低了利率。对股票来说,这通常是一个利好,因为这样会让它们比存款更具吸引力。但股价还是在下跌。Since then, the authorities have introduced a wave of additional measures meant to prop up prices. Stock trading transactions were slashed. I.P.O.s were suspended. Huge stabilization funds were set up to purchase shares. Brokerage houses promised to buy more. And China’s insurance regulator eased rules so that insurers could more easily invest in stocks.那之后,当局又出台了一波旨在稳定股价的措施。下调交易费率、暂停新股发行、设立巨额救市基金买进股票、券公司承诺增购股票。此外,中国的保险监管机构也放宽了规定,这样保险公司就更容易投资股市了。In the face of further selling, the government continued to introduce new measures on Wednesday.周三当天,面对进一步的抛售,政府继续出台新举措。管理大型国企的国有资产监督管理委员会对很多大型国有上市企业下令,不得减持自己的股票。China’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which oversees the country’s big state corporations, ordered many such companies with public listings not to reduce holdings of their own stock.监会甚至发布通知,鼓励大股东和企业高管增持自己公司的股票。监会在通知中还强调,为防止内幕交易而对交易时机实施的规则,当下并不适用。The China Securities Regulatory Commission even issued a notice encouraging major shareholders, directors and executives of companies to increase their holdings of their companies’ stock. The commission emphasized that rules about the timing of insider stock transactions that might deter such purchases would not apply.瑞银(UBS)驻香港市场分析师何伟华(Patrick Ho)称,这是一种“试错”的办法。而且鉴于当局希望刺激经济,并试图阻止市场过快跌落,可能还会有更多举措。 /201507/385242Sales of Chinese-branded passenger vehicles have collapsed in the world’s largest car market, sharpening a debate about whether the sector should be opened further to foreign investors.中国国产品牌的乘用车在国内市场(全球最大汽车市场)销量大幅下跌,激化了有关汽车行业是否应当进一步对外国投资者开放的辩论。The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said yesterday that domestic carmakers had sold 457,000 own-brand passenger saloons in January and February, a 21 per cent decline from the same period last year.中国汽车工业协会(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)昨日宣布,国内汽车生产商今年1至2月共售出自有品牌乘用轿车45.7万辆,较去年同期下降了21%。Their market share fell from 27 per cent at the end of last year to less than 23 per cent.国内汽车生产商的市场份额从去年年底的27%降至不足23%。This contrasted with a 5 per cent year-on-year increase in overall saloon sales during the period, to 2m units.而同期中国乘用轿车的销售总量较上年增长了5%,达到200万辆。Including a surge in sales of SUVs, passenger car sales in China increased more than 11 per cent year on year to 2.6m units. Most of the market was captured by joint ventures between Chinese and multinational carmakers, which are not allowed to take more than a 50 per cent stake in operations.若计入运动型多功能车(SUV)的销量增长,今年1至2月中国的乘用车销量同比增长超过11%,达到了260万辆。主导中国乘用车市场的是由中国国内企业和跨国汽车生产商组建的合资企业,外资在合资企业中的持股比例不能超过50%的上限。Suggestions by government officials that the ceiling on foreign investment should be raised have sparked an intense debate about the future of Chinese brands, which have struggled to compete with their foreign-invested rivals and imports.政府官员有关外资上限应当调高的提议,激起了有关中国国产汽车品牌未来发展的一场激烈辩论,国产品牌在与外资竞争对手以及进口汽车的竞争中处境艰难。A CAAM official said last month that Chinese brands would be “killed in the cradle” if the restriction was relaxed.中国汽车工业协会的一位官员上月表示,如果持股上限放松,中国国产汽车品牌可能“被扼杀在摇篮里”。The overall strength of China’s car market contrasted sharply with India’s. Car sales in Asia’s third-largest economy rose slightly in February, ending a long period of decline.中国汽车市场的整体强劲状况与印度形成鲜明对比。作为亚洲第三大经济体,印度2月份的汽车销售量略微增长,结束了长时期的下降趋势。 /201403/279311

For his latest automotive venture, Anand Mahindra has turned Asia’s conventional industrial wisdom on its head.阿南德#8226;马欣德拉(Anand Mahindra)最新的汽车事业颠覆了亚洲的传统产业智慧。Instead of assembling the product — the new GenZe electric scooter — with low-cost factory labour in Asia and exporting it to the US, India’s Mahindra amp; Mahindra has opted for what it calls an “all-American product”. It was designed in Silicon Valley and will be made in Ann Arbor, Michigan under the supervision of 60 relatively expensive engineers, with components from across the globe.印度企业马欣德拉(Mahindra amp; Mahindra)并没有利用亚洲工厂里的低成本劳动力组装其新产品——GenZe电动托车——并出口到美国,而是选择打造一款“全美国产品”。这款产品在硅谷设计,将在密歇根州安阿伯(Ann Arbor, Michigan)制造,制造过程会在60名薪水相对亚洲较高的工程师指导下进行,使用的部件将来自全球各地。“This is the new animal that a global new product manufacturing set-up is going to be,” says Mr Mahindra, the Harvard-educated billionaire who took the helm of the bn Indian conglomerate as chairman three years ago.“一种新的全球化产品制造模式就将是这样的,”有哈佛大学(Harvard University)教育背景的亿万富翁马欣德拉说,3年前他开始作为董事长执掌这家市值160亿美元的印度企业集团。“We really felt that India didn’t have the start-up atmosphere#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;We had a number of people join us from [US electric carmaker] Tesla Motors, for example, because they were excited about this and the Valley allows people just to migrate and to try out new things.”“我们确实感觉印度没有初创企业的氛围……比如,一些来自(美国电动汽车制造商)特斯拉汽车(Tesla Motors)的人加入了我们,因为他们对此感到兴奋,而硅谷又允许人们随意迁入,试验新的事物。”The GenZe is a modest project for the time being. The ,000 scooter with a computer touchscreen and power sockets for cellphones and laptops is aimed at students and young professionals and is expected to launch in Berkeley, California and Portland, Oregon in a few months, with initial annual production capacity of 20,000 units.就目前而言,GenZe是一个规模较小的项目。这款售价3000美元的电动托车配有一块电脑触摸屏,以及为手机和笔记本电脑设计的充电口,目标客户群是学生和年轻的专业人士,预计几个月后将在加州伯克利和俄勒冈州波特兰发售,初步的年产量为两万台。But the plan exemplifies the challenges facing the business models of traditional Indian manufacturers such as Mahindra, and illustrates the difficultiesNarendra Modi, India’s prime minister, will have in creating millions of jobs through his “Make in India” campaign of promoting the country as a low-cost alternative to China.但这个计划充分体现出马欣德拉等传统印度生产商的商业模式面临的挑战,也表明印度总理纳伦德拉#8226;莫迪(Narendra Modi)通过他本人提出的“印度制造”(Make in India)计划创造数百万就业机会的打算将面临的困难。“印度制造”计划旨在宣扬印度成本更低、可替代中国。The Mahindra conglomerate’s existing US businesses are based largely on the competitiveness of Asian manufacturing and services: the group is the world’s largest tractor brand by volume and sells the vehicles made in India, Japan and South Korea through 525 American dealerships aimed primarily at smaller enterprises and hobby farmers. Tech Mahindraprovides IT services to 360 of the Fortune 500 companies.马欣德拉企业集团旗下现有的美国业务基本以亚洲制造业和务业的竞争力为基础:该集团拥有以销量计世界最大的拖拉机品牌,通过525家美国经销商销售在印度、日本和韩国生产的拖拉机,主要面向中小型企业和农业爱好者。Tech Mahindra向《财富》(Fortune) 500强企业中的360家企业提供IT务。Interviewed in his Mumbai of#172;fice, Mr Mahindra is as cheerful as ever under his trademark shock of white-streaked hair, but he is grappling with an upheaval in global manufacturing that has seen the rapid rise of automation, more demand for high-tech products, and intense competition in an Indian domestic automotive market beset by economic uncertainty and unpredictable monsoon rains.在位于孟买的办公室接受采访时,一头标志性花白头发的马欣德拉一如既往地喜气洋洋,但他正在艰难应对全球制造业的一场巨变,这个行业见了自动化的迅速崛起、高科技产品的需求上升、受困于经济前景不确定和变化莫测的季风雨的印度国内汽车市场的激烈竞争。“We [in India] are not where China was when it made its decision to go in for labour-intensive manufacturing. It was in the right place at the right time. It became the world’s supplier and grew rich on the back of that. I don’t think India has that opportunity — that is our biggest problem,” he says.“我们(印度)如今所处的境况与中国决定发展劳动力密集制造业时的情况不同。当时中国处于正确的地点和时机。中国成为了世界的供应商,并依靠这一点富裕起来。我不认为印度有这样的机会——这是我们最大的问题,”马欣德拉说。“The world is moving away from simply low-cost elements. Products today are products which require a brand, which require innovation, and which have a very strong element of both IT and services involved in them.”“当今世界,只看低成本元素日益行不通了。今天的产品需要品牌,需要创新,需要同时包含很强的IT和务要素。”Mr Mahindra explains this in terms of Barbie dolls. In the old days, it was just a doll, but in the future it could be something robotic that walks and thinks — “intelligent Barbie — it sounds like an oxymoron”, he says with a smile.马欣德拉用芭比娃娃来做解释。过去,这仅仅是个娃娃,但是将来可能会是能走能思考的机器人了。“智能芭比——虽然这听起来有些矛盾”,他微笑着说。India in general, and companies such as Mahindra, are by no means excluded from this new, high-tech manufacturing world. It is true that India suffers from poor education and a desperate shortage of skills, but it also has well-known strengths in IT in geographical areas that overlap with those of the motor industry: in Chennai, Gurgaon, Pune and Mumbai, for example. The two sectors are closely connected too: while the core of Mahindra’s Indian motor business is SUVs for the price-conscious local market, Tech Mahindra’s international work includes producing software for driverless vehicles.整体而言,印度、以及像马欣德拉这样的企业,无论如何都不会被排除在这个新的高科技制造世界之外。尽管印度确实饱受教育水平低下和技能严重匮乏之困,但印度世所闻名的IT优势所处的地理区位也恰好与汽车工业的所在地重合:比如金奈(Chennai),古尔冈(Gurgaon),浦那(Pune)和孟买。这两个行业也是密切相连的:马欣德拉在印度的核心汽车业务是面向当地对价格敏感的市场提供运动型多功能车(SUV),Tech Mahindra的国际业务则包括为无人驾驶汽车开发软件。“When people think of manufacturing, it is no longer a very simplistic framework that you can apply, a very binary one that ‘I need to make something low-cost so I go to China#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;Now China’s place in the sun is gone, go to India’,” he says. “That’s not how people are going to have to think. They’re going to have to create a footprint which might be like a neural network which involves nodes in various places.“当人们思考制造业的时候,使用那种简单化的思维模式已经行不通了,那种两段论——‘我需要生产低成本的东西,我就去中国……如今中国不是最佳制造地了,我就去印度’,”他说。“这不是人们以后不得不采取的思维方式。人们将不得不创造这样的足迹,或许就像神经网络一样,节点遍布各个地方。”“You incubate a product in an atmosphere where that product is best incubated. So, for example, we incubated our electric scooter in California. Because it’s low-volume manufacturing but high-intelligence, intensive manufacturing, we are starting in Michigan. At a point where the volume is going to be much higher and labour is a much higher component, we will pick a different part of the world, most likely India.”“你孵化一个产品,会选择最适合孵化它的环境。所以,打个比方,我们会在加州孵化我们的电动托车。它是个小批量生产的产品,但高度智能化、生产集约化,因此我们从密歇根州起步。到了某个程度,其产量会大幅度提高,工人的数量也会大幅增加,届时我们将选择其他地区,最可能的就是印度。”As well as struggling to devise a profitable manufacturing strategy for the future, Mr Mahindra is grappling with the need to make sense of a highly diversified conglomerate of the sort often unpopular with focused investors and financial analysts.马欣德拉除了难以制定出面向未来的可盈利制造策略,还难以对高度多元化企业集团的合理性进行必要的明,这类企业通常不受重点投资者和金融分析师的待见。With its origins in a quintessentially Indian family enterprise built in a protected post-independence economy, Mahindra not only sells IT services, tractors, trucks, cars, three-wheelers, two-wheelers and small aircraft, but is also involved in defence, renewable energy, banking, insurance, retail, real estate and holidays. Mr Mahindra, a member of the third generation, whose own wealth is estimated by Forbes at .2bn, is not shy of acquisitions. He bought Ssangyong Motor and the scandal-hit Satyam Computer Services among others — and is constantly on the watch for the chance to buy a high-end automotive brand.马欣德拉起源于一个典型的印度家族企业,在独立后受保护的经济环境中逐渐壮大,它不仅销售IT务、拖拉机、卡车、汽车、三轮车、两轮车和小型飞机,还涉足国防、可再生能源、业、保险、零售、房地产以及度假产业。阿南德#8226;马欣德拉是该家族第三代成员,据福布斯(Forbes)估计他的资产为12亿美元。阿南德在收购企业时从不手软,他收购的企业包括双龙汽车(Ssangyong Motor),以及陷入丑闻的萨蒂扬软件技术有限公司(Satyam Computer Services)等等。阿南德还一直在留心收购一个高端汽车品牌的机会。“We don’t call it a conglomerate, we call it a federation,” he says. “If you look at a spectrum between General Electric and Berkshire Hathaway, GE is a conglomerate, one single monolithic company with divisions, Berkshire Hathaway has multiple investments.”阿南德说:“我们不会自称为企业集团,我们称之为联盟。如果你将通用电气(GE)和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)放在一个光谱的两端,那么通用电气就是企业集团,一个有许多部门的单一整体公司。伯克希尔哈撒韦则拥有众多投资项目。”Mahindra, in short, is more Berkshire Hathaway than GE and the boss is in no mood to abandon the safety of diversification.简言之,马欣德拉更像伯克希尔哈撒韦、而不是通用电气,而老板本人也无意放弃多元化带来的安全保障。“If I was sitting here and I had only one unit — an SUV diesel business — even if I was making a 25 per cent return today, your question would be, ‘Anand, are you going to survive?’ Right? Here I am. I’m seeding other parts.“如果我坐在这个位子上,旗下只有一个部门,比如运动型多功能车(SUV)柴油车业务,哪怕现在我的回报率是25%,你仍会问,‘阿南德,你能生存下去吗?’对吧?我已经决定了。我要培育其他业务。”“I’ve got an electric vehicle business. If the world moves, in [big cities], away from vehicles and they say only two-wheelers, and battery two-wheelers, are going to be able to survive, guess who’ll have a product? If they say electric vehicles only in Delhi tomorrow after banning 10-year-old diesel vehicles [this was announced in April by the National Green Tribunal, but the ban has been suspended for the time being], guess who has a product?”“我已经有了电动车业务。如果全世界(的大城市)要告别汽车,然后他们说只有两轮车、电动两轮车可以继续使用,猜猜谁拿得出合适的产品?如果他们继禁止10年车龄的柴油车上路后(印度国家绿色法庭(National Green Tribunal)今年4月宣布该禁令,但暂未实施),明天又说在德里只能开电动车,你猜谁能拿出合适的产品?”With a hint of defensiveness, Mr Mahindra rejects criticism by analysts of his moves into new markets and product categories. “The moment I say I’m going into scooters, they say ‘you’re crazy’. Six months later when BMW comes out with an electric scooter, it’s fine. But when Anand does it, because he’s some small guy in India, it’s not fine.”马欣德拉进军新市场以及新的产品种类之举受到了分析师的批评,对此他有些戒备地拒绝接受。“当我说我要做托车时,他们说‘你疯了’。6个月后宝马(BMW)推出了一款电动托车,大家都觉得没问题。但是阿南德要做这个就不行,因为他只是印度的一个小人物。”Mahindra, of course, is not small — it has operations in 100 countries — but Mr Mahindra the conglomerate chief still describes himself as an entrepreneur, despite, or perhaps because of, the multitude of businesses he controls.马欣德拉当然不是小企业,它的业务遍及100个国家,但作为企业集团老板的阿南德仍将自己形容成一个创业者,尽管(或者是因为)他操控着如此多业务。“Our performance has borne out the fact that the model seems to work. I have been facing this question now for the past two decades and I’m still around, still have my job, so something must be working,” he says.阿南德说:“我们的成绩已经明,这一模式似乎可行。过去二十年我一直面对着这个问题,而我还在这里,还在这个位置上,所以有些东西肯定是可行的。” /201506/381109

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