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楼主:导医爱问 时间:2017年12月14日 10:05:37 点击:0 回复:0
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Kensington Palace Gardens has a good claim to be the most exclusive road in Britain. Kensington Palace Gardens被称为全英国最显赫的大街当属实至名归。It runs alongside the palace that was once home to Diana, Princess of Wales, and is now the residence of her son, Prince William, and assorted other royals. 街边就是肯辛顿宫(Kensington Palace):它曾是威尔士王妃戴安娜(Diana, Princess of Wales)的寝宫,如今则是其大儿子、威廉王Prince William)以及各色皇室贵胄的居住地。Several billionaires are reputed to own mansions on the street including Roman Abramovich, the Russian owner of Chelsea Football Club and Lakshmi Mittal, the Indian steel tycoon. 据称好几位亿万富豪也在此拥有豪华府邸——其中就包括切尔西足球队老板、俄国富豪阿布拉莫维Roman Abramovich)以及印度钢铁大王拉克希米#8226;米塔Lakshmi Mittal)。National flags flutter from many of the other houses to signal that they are ambassadorial residences. 好多豪宅上飘扬的各色国旗表明此处是大使的府邸云集之地。It is the Japanese ambassador who resides at number 23 who I am visiting on a bright summer’s afternoon.这儿也是日本驻英国大使官邸所在地(Kensington Palace Gardens3号)。我在一个阳光明媚的盛夏下午采访了日本驻英国大使。Despite its rich and powerful residents, the wide avenue which runs from Notting Hill Gate to Kensington is only semi-private. 尽管达官贵人汇聚于Kensington Palace Gardens这条始于诺丁山门(Notting Hill Gate)、终于肯辛顿宫的宽阔大街,但它只是半私家性质。There are police boxes at both entrances and armed policemen, still a relative rarity in London, can be seen strolling up and down. 大街两端设有警亭,荷实弹的警察(在整个伦敦实属凤毛麟角)在这条街上来回巡逻。But nobody asks me my business, as I turn into the avenue from the Bayswater Road and stroll past a few joggers and pedestrians. 但我从贝斯沃特路(Bayswater Road)步行拐入这条大街、与几位慢跑者和行人擦肩而过时,并没有警察拦路盘问我。At the appointed hour (midday), I press the bell on the gate of the Japanese residence. 在约定好的会面时间(午时),我按响了日本大使官邸的门铃。After a few moments of silence, the iron gates swing open and I walk up the crescent-shaped drive. The front door also opens, as if by magic, and I am ushered left, into a comfortably appointed sitting room. 过了一会儿,大铁门打开,我于是沿着通往官邸的新月形宽阔车道信步而上,官邸前门像变魔术一样应声而开后,我被带至舒适温馨的小客厅。Sitting on a well-stuffed cream-coloured sofa is Koji Tsuruoka.坐在米色厚软沙发上的正是日本驻英大使鶴岡公二(Koji Tsuruoka)。The ambassador is a relative newcomer to London. 鶴岡公二大使可谓新官上任,他之前担任日方首席代表,经历了三年艰苦卓绝的跨太平洋伙伴关TPP)谈判,今月他就任这个新职。He arrived in June, after spending three arduous years negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal that is meant to break down economic barriers between the US, Japan and 10 other Pacific nations. TPP这一贸易协定旨在破除美日以及其它10个太平洋国家之间的经贸壁垒。As we are served tea, I suggest to Tsuruoka that the role of ambassador in London probably offers a gentler pace than the intense and highly technical TPP negotiations.茶端上来后,我向鶴岡公二大使暗示:相比工作强度大、技术要求高的TTP谈判,驻英大使也许要更为悠闲些吧。来 /201610/472173North America’s share of global output has fallen much less than that of Europe or Latin America over the past 20 years, undermining US President Donald Trump’s claims that unfair trade deals have been detrimental to American workers in particular.过去20年里,北美在全球产出中所占份额的降幅远远小于欧洲或拉美,这削弱了美国总统唐纳特朗Donald Trump)关于不公平贸易协议尤其不利于美国工人的说法。Since 1997, North America’s share of global output has fallen from 28.5 per cent of the total to a forecast 24.1 per cent this year, a decline of 15 per cent, according to data from Euromonitor, a research group.研究集团欧睿(Euromonitor)的数据显示,997年以来,北美在全球产出中所占份额从28.5%持续下降,今年预计降4.1%,总降幅为15%。But western Europe’s share has slumped 31 per cent over the same period, with its share set to fall below 20 per cent for the first time in 2017, compared with 29.1 per cent in 1997. Latin America has fared almost as badly, with its share slumping by more than a quarter to 5.1 per cent.但同期西欧所占的份额下降1%,在1997年为29.1%,017年预计将首次降至20%以下。拉美的情况几乎同样糟糕,其占比下降逾四分之一,今年将降至5.1%。All are grappling with the growing power of Asian economies, which are on track to account for 40 per cent of global output this year, up from 26.3 per cent in 1997.所有地区都在努力应对亚洲经济体实力不断增强的局面。今年,亚洲占全球产出的份额料将达到40%,高997年的26.3%。“The shift of the past 20 years has been the expansion of global supply chains which saw the integration of Asia, especially China, into the global manufacturing sector,said William Jackson, senior emerging market economist at Capital Economics.“过0年中出现的变化是全球供应链扩张,亚洲、尤其是中国融入了全球制造业,”凯投宏Capital Economics)高级新兴市场经济学家威廉?杰克William Jackson)说。Mr Trump has claimed that “horribletrade deals signed by his predecessors allowed American jobs to slip away to Mexico and China, and called the move to quit the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership deal a “great thing for the American worker But the data suggest other European and Latin American nations have lost out much more.特朗普声称,他的前任们签署的“可怕”贸易协议让美国的工作岗位得以流向墨西哥和中国,退出有12国签署的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定TPP)“对美国工人而言是伟大的事情”。但数据表明,欧洲和拉美国家失去的更多。Indre Cesniene, head of industrial research at Euromonitor, said: “In 2017?.?.?.?Asia will account for 70 per cent of all high-tech goods produced globally, with virtually all major companies having production capacities in the region.”欧睿工业研究主管因德雷?切斯尼内(Indre Cesniene)说:017年……在全球生产的所有高科技产品中,亚洲将占0%,几乎所有大公司都在该地区拥有生产能力。”Asia also accounts for more than half of global production of intermediate goods and machinery. Across manufacturing as a whole, Asia is forecast to have a 45.5 per cent share this year.在全球的中间产品和机械生产领域,亚洲所占份额也0%以上。就整个制造业而言,亚洲今年预计占5.5%的份额。Separate figures from the UN suggest that, between 1990-2015, China went from the world’s 8th-largest manufacturer to its largest, South Korea from 12th to fifth, India from 14th to sixth, and Indonesia from 18th to 11th.来自联合UN)的数据则表明,从1990年到2015年期间,中国从世界第8制造业大国上升至第一位,韩国从第12位升至第5位,印度从第14位升至第6位,印尼从第18位升至第11位。Asia remains far weaker in service sectors, however, accounting for less than a quarter of turnover in areas such as finance and insurance, and business services.然而,亚洲在务业方面仍然较弱,在金融保险和商业务等领域的营收总额中占比不足四分之一。Euromonitor estimated that Asia’s share of global output will grow further, to almost 49 per cent of the total by 2025, with a 75 per cent share in sectors such as textiles and transportation equipment.欧睿估计,亚洲在全球产出中所占份额将进一步增长,025年将达到9%,在纺织品和运输设备等行业的份额将达75%。But Mr Jackson said this advance was “unlikely to continue at the same pace,given rising protectionism and the fact that one-off boosts such as China joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001 cannot be repeated. “We’re aly seeing signs that the integration of manufacturing supply chains has probably reached a peak,he said.但杰克逊表示,鉴于保护主义加剧以及中国2001年加入世界贸易组WTO)等一次性刺激不可重复,这种进步“不太可能以同样的速度继续下去”。“我们已看到制造业供应链的整合可能已经见顶的迹象,”他说。Ms Cesniene said she did not envisage Mr Trump making much of a dent in Asia’s rise, arguing that manufacturers, such as automakers, want to be in the region as it is increasingly where their customers are based.切斯尼内表示,她预计特朗普不会对亚洲崛起造成很大打击。她辩称,制造商(如汽车制造商)想要在亚洲立足,因为他们在那里的客户越来越多。The figures are based on national accounts data and industry surveys, standardised by Euromonitor to strip out computational and methodological differences.上述数字基于国民账户数据和行业调查,欧睿对数据进行了标准化处理,以消除计算和方法上的差异。来 /201703/497318Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, met with Hung Hsiu-chu, the visiting chairwoman of Kuomintang (KMT) party, and called for officials on both sides of the Taiwan Straits to remain committed to the one-China consensus.中共中央总书记习近平会见来访的中国国民党主席洪秀柱,呼吁台湾海峡两岸官员继续坚持;一个中;的共识。Holding talks with a delegation led by Hung at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing last Tuesday, Xi said ensuring national integrity and protecting the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation is the ;common will of all Chinese people;.习近平主席于上周二在北京人民大会堂同洪秀柱率领的访问团举行会谈时指出,确保国家完整不被分裂,维护中华民族根本利益,是;全体中华儿女的共同意;。Xi made a six-point proposal on cross-Straits relations, including adhering to the 1992 Consensus, which affirms the one-China principle, resolutely opposing forces supporting ;Taiwan independence; and their activities, promoting social and economic cooperation between the two sides and working together to carry forward Chinese culture.习近平主席就两岸关系发展提出六点意见,包括坚持体现一个中国原则的;九二共识;、坚决反;台独;分裂势力及其活动、推进两岸经济社会合作和共同弘扬中华文化等;Safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity is the core national interest, and it is a line that cannot be crossed,; Xi said.习近平主席表示:“维护国家主权和领土完整是国家利益的核心,是一条不能跨越的红线。”Hung said the KMT and the CPC should continue promoting economic, trade and people-to-people exchanges on the basis of adhering to the 1992 Consensus and opposing ;Taiwan independence.;洪秀柱表示,国共两党应继续在;九二共识;、反;台独;的基础上推动扩大两岸经贸和民间交流往来。It is Hungs first trip to the Chinese mainland since she became head of the KMT on March 30.此行是洪秀0日就任国民党主席后第一次访问大陆;The meeting between Xi and Hung is pragmatic and has far-reaching significance,; said Wang Kunyi, a professor with Tamkang University in Taiwan.台湾淡江大学教授王昆义表示:“习近平主席与洪秀柱主席的这次会见是非常务实的,并且具有深远的意义。”来 /201611/477323Politicians like to behave as if the laws of economics do not exist. We learnt that lesson the hard way in the eurozone crisis, dealing with the consequences of a single currency created without key economic safeguards.政治家喜欢罔顾经济规律行事。在欧元区危机中,我们付出惨重代价(被迫应对在创建时缺乏关键经济保障的单一货币带来的后果)才吸取了这一教训。On the other hand, economists and investors have a habit of ignoring the laws of politics. That is equally wrong and could turn out to be particularly risky in Europe over the next couple of years.另一方面,经济学家与投资者也经常忽视政治规律。这同样也是错误的,在未来几年尤其可能给欧洲带来风险。There is no pressing economic crisis confronting the continent in 2016, thank goodness.谢天谢地016年的欧洲不会面临紧迫的经济危机。There will be continued worries about Greece, and maybe Spain given the uncertain result in its recent election. At first glance, however, it is difficult to see anything that will cause the kind of jitters and contagion that we have seen in financial markets in each of the past five years.对希腊的担忧将继续,也许还有西班牙——考虑到后者近期大选结果带来的变数。然而,大体看来,很难看到有什么事情将引发过去五年每年都出现在金融市场中的那种恐慌情绪以及传染效应。There are also few events in the political calendar that could disturb markets or the economy, with a key exception being the possible UK referendum on membership of the EU. Mostly, we have to wait until 2017 for the big set-piece events, including general and presidential elections in Germany and France.政治议程上也几乎没有可能冲击市场或欧元区经济的事件,只有一个重要例外,那就是英国可能将对是否继续留在欧盟进行公投。基本上来说,重头戏要等017年,包括德法两国大选。This outlook has many people in the markets feeling calm about Europe, for once. Some would even say that the “doom-loop between Europe’s politics and its economy that so often infected markets during the financial crisis, has finally been broken. We can but hope.这一前景让很多市场人士这次总算对欧洲松了一口气。有人甚至表示,那种在金融危机期间曾如此频繁地影响市场的欧洲政治与经济之间的“恶性循环”终于被打破了。我们只能希望确实如此。Growth is not nearly strong enough in the eurozone at the moment and it is unlikely to be a lot faster in the coming year. With consumption and consumer confidence picking up and unemployment continuing to fall, however, the recovery does now have its own momentum.眼下,欧元区的增长还远不够强劲,而且不太可能在未来一年大幅提速。然而,随着消费及消费者信心的回升以及失业率持续下降,经济复苏自身的惯性如今已经形成。November’s terrorist attacks in Paris will have delivered a short-term hit to the economy in France and Belgium but I do not know many economists cutting their forecasts for growth in 2016 because of fears of a new terrorist attack or the migrant crisis.巴黎11月的恐怖袭击短期而言肯定对法囀?比利时的经济造成了冲击,但我未听说有多少经济学家因为担忧发生新的恐怖袭击或者移民危机而调低对2016年欧元区经济增长的预期。In fact, many economists have argued that the net effect of the influx of migrants will be positive, both in the short term and further off. The additional spending associated with the crisis, especially in Germany, will mean a net stimulus at a time when the overall fiscal stance in Europe is looser than it has been.事实上,许多经济学家认为,不论从短期还是长远来看,移民涌入的影响都是利大于弊的。移民危机带来的额外出(尤其是在德国)对于整体财政状况比过去更加宽松的欧洲而言将意味着净刺激。Looking through an economic lens, the massive influx of people from Syria and elsewhere, many of them highly skilled, also appears to offer a long-term boost to economic potential for a country such as Germany, whose working-age population would otherwise be set to shrink.从经济视角看,叙利亚及其他地区移民(其中许多都有一技之长)的大规模涌入似乎也对一些国家的经济潜力带来长远的提振,例如劳动年龄人口原本势必将萎缩的德国。This narrow economic take on the migrant crisis is probably right as far as it goes. The political storms buffeting Europe are unlikely to derail the recovery soon but experience suggests some longer-term reasons to worry.对移民危机的这种仅从经济角度考虑所得出的观点本身很可能是正确的。冲击欧洲的政治风暴短期内不太可能破坏经济复苏,但过去的经历表明,从中长期来看我们有理由担忧。One lesson is that something that looks like an overwhelming economic positive can rapidly turn into a negative if the politics go in the other direction.教训之一是,从经济角度而言异常有益的事件可能迅速变得不利——如果它在政治上的影响朝不利方向发展的话。That sounds blindingly plain but it was not that obvious in the UK in the 1990s and early 2000s, when net immigration from inside and outside the EU picked up sharply.如今这听起来再明显不过,但在上世0年代以及本世纪头几年的英国并不如此,彼时,来自欧盟内部及外部的净移民数量出现了大幅上升。For economists and businesses the benefits of this influx of labour were clear, yet its political and social consequences have helped put the UK on a path to potentially leaving the EU. For most in the markets and a big chunk of the business community, that would be a seriously negative outcome.对经济学家及企业界而言,劳动力大量涌入带来的好处显而易见,但其带来的政治及社会方面的后果却将英国推上了有可能脱离欧盟的道路。对于大多数市场人士以及大部分企业界人士而言,这将是一个非常不利的结果。A similar dynamic has played out much more quickly in Germany where, since summer, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s popularity has been hit by her brave welcome to hundreds of thousands of migrants.在德国,类似局势演化的速度要快得多:今夏以来,德国总理安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)勇敢欢迎数十万移民的姿态已使其持率下滑。So along with the positive fiscal and supply-side consequences of migration, investors may now have to add a rather large negative: that the most effective politician in Europe could be unable to stand for re-election.因此,除了移民在财政和劳动力供给方面带来的积极影响,投资者如今或许还不得不考虑一个巨大的不利影响:欧洲最有建树的那位政治家可能无法再竞选连任。We learnt in the eurozone crisis that a single currency area is only as strong as its weakest link. Now we are learning a similar lesson when it comes to Europe’s single border.从欧元区危机中,我们曾吸取到这样一个教训,即单一货币区整体的稳固程度,不会超过其最薄弱之处的稳固程度。如今,在欧洲的单一边界问题上,我们正在得出类似的教训。If people feel that their security, economic or personal, is being put at risk by integration, it will become that much harder to achieve the deeper co-operation that security and faster growth will probably require.如果人们认为一体化使得自己的经济或人身安全处于危险境地,那么,要实现安全与更快速增长所需要的更深层次合作将变得困难得多。Ask David Cameron, UK prime minister, whose team is terrified that the migrant issue will end up dominating the referendum campaign.问一问英国首相戴维愠蕓伦(David Cameron)就知道了:他的手下正在担心移民问题最终主导退欧公投造势活动。How much should we worry about Europe? At the height of the eurozone crisis the answer to that question was clear: the risks of broader contagion were such that policymakers, investors and ordinary humans all had to worry about Europe a lot.我们应该在多大程度上为欧洲感到担忧?在欧元区危机最危急的时候,很明确:当时危机进一步蔓延的风险非常高,政策制定者、投资者和普通民众都必须为欧洲感到非常担忧。Now that the trouble has shifted from economics to geopolitics and migrants, it is not so obvious why investors should fret.眼下问题已从经济领域转移至地缘政治与移民领域,投资者为什么应该感到担忧就不是那么明显了。The short-term economic outlook looks calm but no one should be in any doubt that if these crises are handled badly, they hold long-term risks for Europe’s economy.短期经济前景看起来令人放心,但任何人都不应有任何质疑的是,如果应对不好这些危机,它们将为欧洲经济带来长远风险。来 /201601/422705

While 2016 was the year the unlikely became real, currency investors enter 2017 no better equipped to tell the difference between reality and illusion.尽管2016年是一个不太可能的事情变成现实的年份,但在进入2017年之际,外汇投资者仍无法更好区分现实与假象。Brexit and Trump made a mockery of assumptions, shredded investorsbest-laid plans and turned political risk analysts into the most in-demand advisers of the year.英国退Brexit)和特朗普是对假设的嘲弄,破坏了投资者精心设计的计划,并让政治风险分析师成了去年最抢手的顾问。The two big themes of 2016 will feel palpable during the first quarter of 2017. Donald Trump takes the oath of office to become US president on January 20. By March’s end, UK prime minister Theresa May will have sent to the EU the letter that triggers the UK’s formal divorce proceedings, and revealed some element of her negotiating hand.2017年第一季度,人们仍将明显感觉到2016年的这两大主题0日,唐纳特朗Donald Trump)将宣誓就任美国总统。到3月底,英国首相特里萨?Theresa May)将已向欧盟致信,触发英国的正式退欧程序,并显示她的谈判立场的一些元素。All the same, neither of these “facts on the groundwill bring clarity to investors, even if their market behaviour in the tail-end of 2016 suggests they hope and expect otherwise.尽管如此,这两个“既成事实”都不会让投资者拨开迷雾,即便他们在2016年底的市场行为似乎表明,他们希望并期待情况会变得明朗。A “dollar exuberancebroke out post-election, says Peter Rosenstreich of the internet-based bank, Swisse. Trump promises of fiscal policy and tax reform had the “near-magical effectsof convincing investors that monetary policy would end smoothly, global growth enhanced and corporate profits boosted.互联网瑞Swisse)的彼罗森施特赖希(Peter Rosenstreich)表示,“美元繁荣”在美国选举后出现。特朗普承诺的财政政策和税收改革承诺产生了“近乎魔力般的效果”:让投资者相信货币政策将平稳收尾,全球增长将提速,企业利润将得到提振. November 9: Donald Trump’s election victory spurs start of dollar rally11日:唐纳特朗普胜选,开启美元涨势. December 5: Supreme Court hearing into UK’s government’s Article 50 appeal adds to Brexit doubts, pushing sterling higher22日:英国最高法院开始审理英国政府就触发《里斯本条约》第50Article 50)权限提起的上诉,这加剧了外界对于英国退欧的疑虑,促使英镑汇率上涨. December 7: China’s reserves drop a further bn as central bank struggles to halt sliding value of renminbi32日:中国外汇储备进一步缩00亿美元,中国央行艰难阻止人民币贬值. December 14: Dollar rally sustained by Fed rate rise424日:美联Fed)加息维持了美元的涨势。This is giving the US consumer a false sense of wealth and wellbeing, he believes, arguing that US data merely reflect a temporary upswing in a large cyclical downturn.他认为,这给美国消费者带来了一种虚假的富有和幸福的感觉,他辩称,美国数据只是反映出一段大规模周期性低迷期间出现的暂时回升。“We remain sceptical that President Trump will accomplish anything close to the miracle growth rhetoric he has been supplying,says Mr Rosenstreich.罗森施特赖希表示:“我们仍怀疑,特朗普总统能否实现他一直夸口的近乎奇迹般的增长承诺。”The pound’s recent rally also suggests investors expect a clearer picture of Brexit to emerge early in 2017, fuelled by softer rhetoric from Mrs May and her ministers.英镑最近的上涨也似乎表明,受到梅和她手下的部长级官员们较为柔和的言论的鼓舞,投资者预计英国退欧的前景将在2017年初变得更为明朗。Yet according to Nomura’s foreign exchange strategist Jordan Rochester, Mrs May’s Brexit plan is likely to be “very vague, full of hope, but lacking in any concrete details to safeguard the government’s negotiation tactics然而,野村券(Nomura)外汇策略师策略师乔丹?罗切斯特(Jordan Rochester)表示,梅的退欧计划可能会“非常含糊,充满希望,但缺乏具体的细节来保障政府的谈判策略”。For greater certainty, investors may well revert to what they have followed more closely in recent years economic data and the utterances of central banks. This will be the case even if the limitations of monetary policy mean policymakers are supposedly passing responsibility for global growth to politicians.要想获得更大确定性,投资者很有可能回到最近几年他们更密切关注的事情上:经济数据和央行的表态。即便货币政策的局限性意味着政策制定者是时候将全球增长的责任移交给政治人士,情况仍会如此。Steven Saywell, BNP Paribas’s global head of foreign exchange strategy, says the dollar’s post-election rally of more than 11 per cent against the yen was built on Trump-fuelled expectations.法国巴黎(BNP Paribas)外汇策略全球主管斯蒂塞维Steven Saywell)表示,美元兑日元汇率在美国大选后上涨1%,这基于特朗普引发的预期。Contrast that with Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve, and her upbeat assessment of the US economy that accompanied last month’s rate rise.这与美联储主席珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)的表态以及她0162月加息后对美国经济的乐观评估形成对比。“Inflation has picked up,says Mr Saywell. “Even without Trump expectations, the dollar would be stronger.”“通胀已上扬,”塞维尔表示,“即便没有特朗普引发的预期,美元也会走强。”If the Fed is a better guide than Mr Trump for the dollar’s broad direction in 2017, what will determine the euro’s path the European Central Bank or European elections?如果说,就美元在2017年的基本走势而言,美联储是比特朗普更好的指引,那么决定欧元走势的因素会是什么?欧洲央行(ECB)还是欧洲选举?The temptation for investors is to keep a close watch on the slew of 2017 European elections for further signs of the populist traits that secured victories for the Leave campaign in the UK referendum and Mr Trump in the US.投资者也许将忍不住密切关017年欧洲的一系列选举,看有没有民粹主义情绪的更多迹象,这些情绪曾让退欧阵营在英国公投中获胜,也让特朗普赢得美国大选。Yet as Derek Halpenny at MUFG points out, largely forgotten in the attention on Brexit and Trump were the actions of the ECB last month in increasing quantitative easing purchases.然而,就像三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)的德里克?赫尔潘尼(Derek Halpenny)指出的那样,欧洲央行0162月做出的扩大量化宽松(QE)购买规模的措施,在人们对英国退欧公投和特朗普的关注中基本上被忽视了。These, he says, “brought about a revival in the divergence trade that will probably be the theme for the dollar, the euro and the yen in the first part of 2017他表示,这些措施“带来了分化交易(divergence trade)的复苏,这或许会成为美元、欧元和日元017年上半年的主旋律”。Mr Saywell agrees. “The euro hasn’t fallen as much against the dollar as the yen,he says. “A lot will come down to the policy response of central banks.”塞维尔认同这点。“欧元兑美元汇率的下跌幅度不及日元兑美元汇率,”他表示,“很多事情将取决于央行的政策回应。”The ECB, he suspects, will taper monetary policy. While BNP Paribas forecasts the yen heading for 28 against the dollar, maybe even to 35, the bank expects the euro to drop to parity with the dollar but not much further.他估计,欧洲央行将逐渐结束货币政策措施。尽管巴黎预测,日元兑美元汇率将跌向1美元28日元,甚美元35日元,但该行预测,欧元兑美元汇率将跌:1,但不会进一步大幅下跌。“As the ECB exits QE, the market will rebound,says Mr Saywell.他表示:“随着欧洲央行退出量化宽松政策,市场将反弹。”Still, the canny investor will doubtless keep up to date with all developments, political and economic, to chart the most trouble-free path through foreign exchange. As Simon Derrick at BNY Mellon says, 2017 has all the hallmarks of being a repeat of 1985 loose fiscal policy, tax cuts, a hawkish Fed and a soaring dollar.话虽如此,精明的投资者肯定会跟踪所有政治和经济事态,以求在外汇市场摸索出一条麻烦最少的道路。正如纽约梅隆银BNY Mellon)策略师西德里Simon Derrick)所言017年具备让1985年重演的所有特点:宽松财政政策、减税、美联储鹰派立场和美元汇率飙升。“It was the pressure of US corporates that was brought to bear on Congress and subsequently the Reagan White House that led to the abandonment of a strong dollar policy,says Mr Derrick.德里克表示:“美国企业的压力影响了美国国会,后来也影响了里根主政的白宫,导致美国放弃了强势美元政策。”Could there be a similar political backlash in Trump’s US? “Absolutely,Mr Derrick says.在特朗普主政时期,美国会否出现类似的政治反弹?德里克表示:“绝对会”。This is by no means the only moment in 2017 when the realities of politics and economics will affect investment choices. The other, warns Mr Derrick, is China.这绝017年唯一一个政治和经济现实将影响投资选择的时刻。德里克警告称,另一个是中国。In November, the People’s Bank of China drained its reserves by bn and has consequently been reducing its holdings of US Treasuries to prevent the renminbi depreciating further. In the background stands Mr Trump, y to repeat accusations that China has been deliberately weakening the renminbi for competitive gain.20161月,中国央行(PBoC)消耗了700亿美元外汇储备,减持了美国国债,以阻止人民币进一步贬值。特朗普则站在背景中,准备重复他的指责:中国一直在故意削弱人民币汇率,以获得竞争好处。“There is a reasonable chance China will rethink its currency policy,says Mr Derrick. “It must be galling to be spending bn and at the same time to be called a currency manipulator. How that plays out next year will be fascinating.”“中国有合理机会反思其汇率政策,”德里克表示,“花00亿美元外汇储备,同时又被称作汇率操纵国,这肯定令人难堪017年这方面的事态将如何发展,将是一件扣人心弦的事。”来 /201701/487468

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