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2020年01月20日 05:30:50来源:百科分享

Forecasts this week by the World Bank revived a prediction often made down the years: that growth in one of the Asian emerging market behemoths, India, would outdo that in the other, China. If this comes to pass, the correct reaction would be: about time too. And while in the medium term it would mainly reflect their relative positions in the economic cycle, sustaining it over a longer period will require Narendra Modi’s government in Delhi to play as good a liberalisation game as it talks.世界(World Bank)最近发表预测,作为亚洲新兴市场大国之一的印度,经济增长率将超越另一新兴市场大国——中囀?这是个老掉牙的预测,如果此次得以应验,那么正确的反应大概是:也该到时候了。在中期内,印度增长率超过中国可能主要反映出两国在经济周期中的相对位置,但假如印度想在长期内维持这一地位,就需要纳伦德#8226;莫迪(Narendra Modi)领导下的印度政府在自由化改革中做得跟说得一样好了。In truth, it is an indictment of India’s policy making over the decades that the thought of its economy outpacing China is a novelty. At a much earlier stage of development India’s per capita gross domestic product at purchasing-power-parity levels is less than half China’s the potential for catch-up should be enormous.事实上,印度经济增速超过中国成为新奇观点,是对印度过去几十年政策制定的控诉。印度所处的发展阶段比中国早得多(按购买力平价计算,印度人均国内生产总GDP)是中国的一半),追赶潜力本应是巨大的。Yet India, although it has succeeded in creating world-class software and business services companies, has never achieved the broad-based take-off in manufacturing that has lifted so many Asian countries out of poverty. This can be remedied. There is so much low-hanging fruit for economic reformers to pick in areas such as infrastructure, power supply, excess regulation and corruption that the tree is practically bent down to the ground. But political stasis at the centre, and the fact that much of the reform has to be done at the state level, restricts the ability even of a genuine reformist government to effect radical change.然而,尽管印度已成功创立了世界一流的软件和商业务公司,但一直没能在制造业实现广泛起飞,而许多亚洲国家当年都是凭借制造业起飞摆脱了贫困。不过这一点是可以纠正的。在基建、供电、过度监管以及腐败等领域,可供经济改革者摘采的低垂之果那么多,压得整棵大树几乎要趴到地上。中央的政治僵局,以及大多数改革必须在国家层面展开的事实,束缚了政府(哪怕是一个真正想改革的政府)实现彻底变革的能力。Clearly there is a large cyclical element in India’s current prospects. The monetary policy implemented by Raghuram Rajan, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, has been exemplary. Timely increases in interest rates at the end of 2013 swiftly quelled inflation. Accordingly, India’s economy gathered steam last year while many others, such as Turkey and Brazil, had to raise rates sharply in the face of high inflation and weak currencies. This week the RBI judged it had enough headroom to loosen monetary policy.显然,印度当前的前景中有一个很大的周期性因素。印度央Reserve Bank of India)行长拉古拉姆#8226;拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)实施的货币政策堪称典范013年末,他及时加息,迅速平息了通胀。因此印度经济才能在去年获得强劲的增长动力,而同时期的土耳其、巴西等许多国家面对高通胀和货币走弱都不得不大幅加息。上周印度央行判断自己有足够的空间放宽货币政策。With the RBI having made its contribution, however, Mr Modi’s government has yet to show it can match it by implementing plans to reduce the fiscal deficit and privatise a succession of companies. The privatisation campaign has run into difficulty, and India seems likely to miss its deficit target of 4.1 per cent of GDP this year without hefty spending cuts.印度央行已作出了自己的贡献,但莫迪政府在实行削减财政赤字、并私有化一系列企业的计划上,却还没有显示出与前者旗鼓相当的能力。私有化运动遇到了困难,而且如果不大幅削减开,印度今年看上去很可能实现不了赤字与GDP比例.1%的目标。Yet Mr Modi’s liberalisation drive has aly encountered fierce opposition from interest groups. A huge strike by coal miners protesting against his plans to deregulate the corrupt and inefficient sector forced the government to agree fresh talks to consider the strikersdemands. This is a pattern likely to be repeated in industry after industry.莫迪的自由化运动已遭到利益集团的激烈反对。煤矿工人举行了一次大罢工,抗议他的计划对腐败、低效的煤矿行业放松管制,罢工者迫使政府同意举行新的谈判,考虑他们的诉求。同样的情况可能在一个又一个行业中再现。The enduring gains if Mr Modi succeeds could be huge. India has some long-term advantages over China. First, its demographics are considerably better, with a relatively much larger cohort of young people entering the workforce. Second, while China requires great political upheaval to become a prosperous liberal democracy, India has only to improve the imperfect democracy it aly has. Third, China is beginning to exhaust the rapid manufacturing phase of expansion, and may find growth harder to come by in the future.如果莫迪取得成功,长期利益可能是巨大的。与中国相比,印度有几个长期优势。首先,印度的人口结构比中国要有利得多,即将进入劳动力市场的年轻人相对要多得多。其次,中国尚需要一场政治剧变才能成为一个繁荣的自由民主国家,而印度只需改进已有的不完善的民主制度。第三,中国以制造业快速发展为特点的经济扩张阶段即将走到尽头,未来可能会发现增长更难实现。Predictions of India overtaking China have been disappointed so many times over the decades that it is risky, bordering on foolhardy, to make them once more. Yet by virtue of his sweeping election victory last year and the happy macroeconomic position that India is currently in, Mr Modi has one of the best chances in a long while to fulfil a little more of the country’s vast but unused potential.过去几十年,印度经济增速超过中国的预言已经落空过如此很多回,使得再一次作此预言成了件冒险的、甚至近乎鲁莽的事。不过,凭借去年在大选中的压倒性胜利,以及印度目前乐观的宏观经济形势,莫迪得到了长久以来的一个最佳机会,可以将印度巨大的、但未得到利用的潜力多发挥出来一些。来 /201501/355494。

  • China and Brazil have criticised the amount of money wealthy countries have pledged to help poorer nations deal with global warming in a sign that sealing a climate treaty next year still faces serious snags.中国和巴西抨击富裕国家承诺帮助较贫穷国家应对全球变暖问题的资金规模太少,这表明明年签署气候条约仍面临巨大障碍。Speaking on the eve of this week’s UN climate talks in Lima, Peru, top negotiators from both countries said the nearly bn that the US, Japan and European countries have promised in recent months was far from the 0bn in annual climate financing that developing nations are expecting from 2020.联合国气候变化会议本周将于秘鲁利马召开。中国和巴西的最高谈判代表在大会前夕发表讲话时表示,美国、日本和欧洲国家最近几个月承诺的近100亿美元援助资金,远低于发展中国家期望020年起每年获得000亿美元应对气候变化资金。The criticisms came as Oxfam said that Brazil should also start channelling money to poorer countries, despite being deemed a developing country by the UN. However, the aid agency which based its calculations on income distribution, poverty levels and greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 did not include China.中国和巴西提出批评之际,乐施Oxfam)表示,巴西也应开始向较贫穷国家提供资金,尽管它被联合国认定为发展中国家。然而,这家援助机构没有将中国包括在内——乐施会的计算是基于收入分布、贫穷程度以及自1990年以来的温室气体排放量。Oxfam said the pledged annual 0bn climate fund would not be enough to both curb global warming and help countries adapt to a changing climate. “Sub-Saharan African countries alone will need bn per year to invest in climate adaptation,it said.乐施会表示,承诺的每000亿美元气候基金将不足以既遏制全球变暖,又帮助各国适应日益变化的气候。它说:“仅撒哈拉以南非洲国家每年就需要投20亿美元来适应气候的变化。”José Antonio Marcondes de Carvalho, Brazil’s chief climate negotiator, said the money pledged so far was welcome. “But we are also mindful of the commitments [OECD] countries made to bring 0bn a year from 2020 onward into fighting climate change.”巴西首席谈判代表何#8226;安东尼奥#8226;马孔德斯#8226;德卡José Antonio Marcondes de Carvalho)表示,迄今承诺的资金规模受人欢迎。“但我们也要提醒的是,经济合作组OECD)国家曾承诺从2020年起每年提供1000亿美元来应对气候变化”。Xie Zhenhua, China’s chief climate negotiator, said: “The number is not ideal because bn is still far away from 0bn.”中国气候谈判代表团团长解振华表示:“现在的资金规模并不理想,因00亿美元离1000亿美元还很远。”Their comments are a jolting reminder of the hurdles that remain ahead of a global climate deal due to be signed in Paris at the end of next year, despite the excitement generated by the US and China when they jointly announced plans to combat global warming nearly three weeks ago.他们的言论强烈地提醒人们,明年年底在巴黎签署全球气候协定依然存在障碍,尽管近三周前美中联合宣布应对全球变暖计划令人兴奋。A stand-off between the two biggest greenhouse gas emitters has blocked years of effort to produce a meaningful international climate treaty, along with squabbles over the level of aid from developed countries deemed most responsible for global warming.两大温室气体排放国的对峙,再加上围绕发达国家援助水平的争吵——发达国家被视为全球变暖的罪魁祸首——阻碍了签署有意义的国际气候协定的多年努力。The UN Green Climate Fund said on Friday that it had raised .7bn from 22 countries in its first fundraising drive this year. This is one of the biggest amounts raised in such a short period.联合国绿色气候基UN Green Climate Fund)上周五表示,今年的首轮筹资活动从22个国家筹集了97亿美元资金。这是在如此短的时间里筹集的最大金额之一。来 /201412/346226。
  • David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister, is putting in place plans to hold on to power and deliver his promised referendum on EU membership even if he fails to win an outright majority in a knife-edge general election on Thursday.英国首相戴维#8226;卡梅David Cameron)正制定计划以谋求继续掌权,并打算即使不能在大选中赢得压倒性多数席位,也要按照此前承诺,就英国是否脱离欧盟(EU)举行公投。英国大选将于周四举行,结果仍十分难以预测。But opposition Labour party leader Ed Miliband is making similar plans to form a minority government and could become prime minister even if he finishes second, thanks to the expected support of the separatist Scottish National party, which is forecast to win by a landslide north of the border.不过,反对党工党(Labour)的领袖埃#8226;米利班德(Ed Miliband)也在制定类似计划,寻求组建一个少数党政府。他的选票即使落后于卡梅伦,仍有可能成为英国首相,因为奉行分离主义的苏格兰国家Scottish National Party)预计会持米利班德,而该党预计会在英国北部取得压倒性胜利。Opinion polls put the Conservatives and Labour neck-and-neck on about 34 points each, promising one of the most uncertain outcomes for decades in a British election, which until 2010 usually delivered a clear parliamentary majority to one of the two main parties.民调显示,保守党(Conservatives)和工Labour)的持率旗鼓相当,均4%左右。这一局面令此次大选很可能成为数十年来英国大选中结果最难确定的一次。在2010年以前,英国两大主要政党中的一家通常会在大选中赢得明确的议会多数席位。The Tories insist they detect some last-minute momentum in their favour. Allies of the Conservative leader say Mr Cameron would “move quicklyto begin talks with his current coalition partners, the pro-European Liberal Democrats, if he emerges with the most seats on May 7.保守党人士坚称,大选前最后一刻的选情中有一些利于他们的迹象。卡梅伦的盟友表示,如果卡梅日赢得最多席位,他会“尽快采取行动”,与现有联盟伙伴、亲欧洲的自由民主党Libreal Democrats)展开磋商。The prime minister made clear yesterday that his plan to hold an “in-outreferendum by 2017 on Britain’s EU membership was a red line, saying: “I would not lead a government that doesn’t have that referendum in law and carried out.”周日,卡梅伦明确表示,017年以前就英国是否脱离欧盟开展公投,是他的最后底线。他说:“我不会领导一个法律上不认可也不实施这一公投的政府。”Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg signalled he could give Mr Cameron his referendum in exchange for his own party’s red lines, including more spending on schools, healthcare and a “fairerdeficit reduction plan.自由民主党领导人尼克#8226;克雷Nick Clegg)则表示,他可能会持卡梅伦的公投计划,以换取推行自己所在党派的政治主张底线——包括加大对学校、医疗保健的开,以及提高减赤方案“公平程度”。The FT’s election calculator gives Mr Cameron 274 seats and Mr Miliband 270 both well short of the 325 target for a House of Commons majority leaving both dependent on the backing of other parties.按照英国《金融时报》大选计算器的估计,卡梅伦预计会获得274个席位,米利班德预计会获70个席位,都将大大低于获得议会下院多数席位所需25个席位。这一局面意味着双方都需要得到其他政党的持。If Mr Cameron emerges as the leader of the biggest party he is expected to begin talks with the Lib Dems and also the Democratic Ulster Unionist party, which is demanding more public spending in Northern Ireland.如果卡梅伦成为议会最大政党的领导人,预计他会启动与自由民主党及民主统一DUP)的磋商。民主统一党的主张是要求加大对北爱尔兰的公共开。Some Conservatives expect him to make his move on Friday, the day after polling day, to establish momentum, but even Lib Dem and DUP support may not take him over the finishing line.部分保守党人预计,卡梅伦会在投票日之后的周五开始行动造势。然而,即使他得到自由民主党和民主统一党的持,可能也无法确保取得最终胜利。The SNP, which is opposed to austerity and wants to scrap Britain’s nuclear deterrent, has said it would help Mr Miliband into power in a hung parliament and “lock David Cameron out of Downing Street苏格兰国家党已经表示,如果出现“无多数议会hung parliament)局面,该党会帮助米利班德掌权,“将戴维#8226;卡梅伦锁在唐宁街(Downing Street)之外”。苏格兰国家党反对英国实施紧缩政策,并希望英国放弃核威慑。It has built on the momentum of last year’s independence referendum which it lost by 45 to 55 per cent and polls suggest it could win most of the 59 Scottish seats at Westminster.去年的苏格兰公投令苏格兰国家党声势大振——尽管那次公投以45%5%的结果没有取得成功。民调显示,该党可能会赢得苏格兰在英国议9个席位中的大多数。来 /201505/373433。
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