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2019年08月26日 06:33:22 | 作者:丽时讯 | 来源:新华社
For years, French, Italian and American luxury brands have thrived as China’s middle class developed a taste for high-end fashion and jewelry.这几年,随着中国中产阶层逐渐迷上高档时装和珠宝,来自法国、意大利和美国的众多奢侈品牌在中国发展得红红火火。But that sales boom is ebbing based on the disappointing results many Western luxury retailers have reported of late, though much suggests this slowdown will be short-lived.但这种销售热潮正在消减,近来多家西方奢侈品零售商发布的令人失望的业绩就是明。尽管也有很多迹象表明,这种放缓只是暂时的。Last year, Chinese luxury sales fell 1% compared to 2013 at 115 billion RMB (.5 billion at current rates), according to a report by Bain amp; Co. A slowing Chinese economy and a government crackdown on graft and gift-giving that was particularly brutal on the watch industry is mostly to blame.据贝恩咨询公司统计,去年中国的奢侈品销售额比2013年下降了1%,跌至1150亿元人民币。中国经济放缓以及政府打击贪污腐败和送礼之风对手表行业的影响尤其明显,也是奢侈品销量走低的主要原因所在。French luxury brand Hermès said watch sales fell 11% in large part because of China, and the company is expecting overall growth this year to remain slow compared to recent averages. Meanwhile, Prada said it expects the tough times for luxury to continue after its China sales fell 4% in 2014.法国奢侈品牌爱马仕表示,其腕表部门销售业绩去年下滑了11%,很大程度上受中国奢侈品市场萎缩影响。该公司预计,与近年平均水平相比,2015年的整体增长将依然缓慢。普拉达2014年中国市场的销售业绩则下滑了4%,其预计今年奢侈品牌依旧面临艰难处境。At the same time, Hermès, known for its highly coveted Birkin bags and horse-themed silk scarves that go for thousands of dollars each, has continued to expand its stores in China. That includes its flagship Maison Hermès in Shanghai a few months ago.然而,以铂金包和丝巾等闻名的爱马仕一直在中国持续增设门店,就在几个月前,它在上海的新旗舰店——爱马仕之家开张。Why? Because there is ample data to suggest that luxury’s current slowdown in China is but a speed bump.这一切是为什么?因为有充分数据表明,当前中国的奢侈品销售只是遇到了一个“减速带”。According to a new report by the Economic Intelligence sponsored by Citigroup, China’s wealthy will have double the assets of their U.S counterpart within five years. By 2020, the financial assets of Chinese worth 0,000 to million will reach trillion, compared to trillion in the ed States, according to the report.由花旗委托经济学人智库完成一份新研究报告称,五年内,中国富人拥有的资产将是美国富人的两倍。该报告指出,到2020年,身家在10万到200万美元的中国人拥有的金融资产总额将达53万亿美元,而美国仅为27万亿美元。That means a lot of people will be wanting to shop at Prada, Gucci and Tiffany amp; Co TIF 0.35% and buying expensive Estée Lauder EL 0.58% beauty products. And such companies are happy to oblige.也就是说,有很多人会想去普拉达、Gucci和蒂芙尼店里去购物,以及购买昂贵的雅诗兰黛美妆产品。这些公司对此乐意之至。Fashion company Michael Kors KORS -0.25% , which is just getting started with its China expansion, recently said sales there are “starting to take hold.” Kors’ archrival Coach COH 0.17% , which plans several new stores in China, saw its sales there rise 13% in its most recent quarter. Tiffany is full steam ahead with its China expansion despite disappointing numbers over the holidays at its Hong Kong stores, a favorite haunt of mainland customers.刚着手在中国扩张业务的时装公司Michael Kors最近表示,其在华销售业绩“开始稳定下来”。这家公司的劲敌Coach则计划在中国新开几家门店,它最新一个季度的在华销售额增长了13%。另外,尽管深受内地游客喜爱的蒂芙尼香港门店的假期销售数字未达到预期,但它依然在全速推进在华扩张计划。Other Western companies, including non-luxury brands, also have big plans for China. Gap Inc GPS -0.58% , whose brands include Old Navy, plans to open 40 new stores in China this year, while Ralph Lauren RL -0.10% sees China as one of its “greatest” markets on the back of double-digit sales growth last year.其他一些非奢侈品牌的西方公司也准备在中国大展拳脚。拥有Old Navy等品牌的Gap公司计划今年在中国新开40家门店。拉尔夫o劳伦去年在中国实现了两位数的销售增长,眼下将中国视为其“最至关重要”的市场之一。So it’s clear that any Chinese slowdown is seen by luxury and retail executives as a blip.显然,对奢侈品牌和零售业高层来说,中国市场放缓只是一个暂时的变化。“China’s prestige beauty growth remains at high single digits, and we see widesp opportunity to enter additional cities, doors and channels, and launch more brands,” Estée Lauder CEO Fabrizio Freda said last month.雅诗兰黛首席执行官法布里吉奥o弗里达上个月说,“中国高档美容产品市场仍保持着高单位数增长,我们看到这里遍布机会,可以进入更多的城市,建立新的门店和销售渠道,并推出更多品牌。” /201504/367998Even those who know little about China have heard of its policy limiting most couples to one child. The 1980 law in the world#39;s most populous country was originally intended to tame fears that a surging population would suck up resources and hurt growth. Birthrates plunged to 1.64 children per woman in 2011 from 4.77 in the 1970s, but the policy has led to countless troublesome consequences over the years, including forced sterilizations and abortions and a shortage of women in a country that overwhelmingly prefers boys over girls.即便是对中国所知不多的人,也听说过计划生育政策,这项政策限制大部分中国夫妇只能生一个孩子。1980年,这个全球人口最多的国家颁布了这一法律,其原意是出于对人口增长过快所带来的资源消耗和伤害经济增长的担忧。中国的人口出生率从70年代的每名妇女生育4.77个儿童锐减至2011年的1.64个,但是这些年来,这一政策显示出了无数后遗症,包括强制绝育和流产,以及重男轻女导致的女性人口短缺失衡。Last week, leaders pledged to relax the one-child policy, allowing couples to have two children if one parent is an only child. Currently, couples are restricted to one child unless both parents are only children and rural families are allowed to do so if their first child is a girl. The policy change comes as China seeks to address a looming shortage of workers in the face of a rapidly aging population. Such demographic changes could also ripple across an unexpected part of China#39;s economy -- its booming housing market.上周,中国领导人表示将放宽计划生育政策,允许有一方为独生子女的夫妇生二胎。目前,除非夫妻双方都是独生子女,否则仍只能要一个孩子;如果农村家庭的第一个孩子是女孩的话,可以生第二胎。政策变化的原因在于中国正寻求解决人口迅速老龄化背后所隐现的劳工短缺问题。这一人口结构的变化也将出人意料地影响到中国经济的某一块——蓬勃发展的房地产市场。Property prices have spiked dramatically, making it unaffordable for many Chinese to buy. And studies have found that the rapid rise of China#39;s home prices is linked to its widening gender imbalance. Because there are many more men than women (a ratio of 1.15 men of marriage age of 15 to 30 years old for every woman), China#39;s dating scene has become ultra-competitive.房价长期上涨,已超出了很多中国人的承受范围。一些研究发现,中国房价的飙升与日益扩大的男女比例失衡有关。因为男性比女性多很多(15-30岁适婚年龄段中的男女比例为1.15:1),中国的婚恋竞争已变得异常激烈。While nothing says ;Will you marry me?; quite like a shiny diamond in the U.S., an engagement in China typically comes with a home. To be considered marriage material, men are expected to either own property or have enough for a down payment; as a result, between 2003 and 2009, as much as 48% (or trillion worth) of the rise in property values across China#39;s 35 major cities is linked to the nation#39;s gender imbalance, according to a 2012 study by Columbia University professor Shang-Jin Wei.在美国,闪闪发光的钻石是“你愿意嫁给我吗?”的最佳代言,然而,在中国,求婚的典型必备品是房子。作为挑选如意郎君的标准,女性往往期待男性要么拥有自己的房产,要么有足够的首付;正因为如此,哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)教授魏尚进2012年所做的调查显示,2003-2009年间,在中国35个主要城市中,房价上涨的部分中高达48%(价值约合8万亿美元)都与国内男女比例失衡有关。With China easing its one-child policy, however, demand for housing could eventually fall.然而,随着中国放宽计划生育政策,房屋需求量最终有可能下降。Wei cites two reasons: It could take another 10 to 15 years before China sees any fundamental changes, but giving more couples a chance to have two children would help balance the male-to-female ratio. And if more men can find wives, it would help ease China#39;s super competitive marriage market.魏尚进列举了两个原因:虽然中国要在10-15年之后才能看到重大的变化,但是给更多的家庭生二胎的机会将有助于平衡男女比例。如果适婚女性数量增多,那么中国婚恋市场异常激烈的竞争将有望得到缓和。Also, raising the birthrate would compel citizens to save less. Because China#39;s government invests so little on medical coverage, education, and other social safety nets, most Chinese save overwhelmingly more than they spend. They often store their money by buying up real estate, but with more children, couples would need to spend more. More than that, such couples would enjoy a wider safety net in a country where children are expected to take care of their elderly parents (Yup, that#39;s right -- in China, visiting mom and dad is the law).此外,生育率的提升将迫使公民减少储蓄。因为中国政府在医疗覆盖、教育和其他社会保障网络领域的投资甚少,大多数中国人更愿意攒钱,不愿意花钱。他们往往会通过购买房地产的方式来存钱,但是孩子越多,需要花销的地方也就越多。除此之外,这样的夫妇也将享有更多的保障,因为孩子有望会给他们养老(没错,的确如此——在中国,看望父母已被写入法律)。It#39;s unclear how Chinese families would respond to a relaxed policy. After all, rising housing and education costs have made couples in urban areas prefer having only one child.我们仍不清楚政策放宽后中国家庭会有什么样的反应。毕竟,房价和教育开销的上涨让城镇家庭宁愿只要一个孩子。It has been estimated the policy change could add 1 to 2 million more births every year, in addition to the approximately 15 million births a year today. Wei says as incomes rise in the world#39;s second largest economy, it#39;s likely that more couples will have more children.目前,中国每年的新生婴儿数量约为1500万,据估计,计划生育政策的变化每年将为中国新添1-2百万的人口。魏尚进表示,随着世界第二大经济体国民收入的不断增加,想多生孩子的夫妇可能会越来越多。All this could make homes more affordable over the next several years; that is, of course, if the Chinese choose to have more babies.所有这些因素可能将在未来几年内让房价更平易近人;当然,前提是中国家庭愿意生更多的孩子。 /201311/266014

In the last several months, at least three brokerage firms have made announcements touting their international reach — so, it must be a trend.过去几个月里,至少已经有三家房地产经纪公司高调宣布了它们的国际化经营路线——因此,这肯定是个潮流。First, the German brokerage Engel amp; V#246;lkers announced it was opening an office in New York City; then the New York stalwart Douglas Elliman Real Estate codified a longstanding relationship with the brokerage firm Knight Frank of London, creating Douglas Elliman Fine Homes/Knight Frank Residential. And finally, a few weeks ago, Town Residential said it was opening an outpost in London and expanding relationships in places as far-flung as Brazil, Nigeria and Hong Kong.一开始,德国经纪公司Engel amp; V#246;lkers宣布,它将在纽约市开设办事处;接着,纽约大鳄道格拉斯·艾丽曼房地产公司(Douglas Elliman Real Estate)和伦敦的经纪公司莱坊国际(Knight Frank)就其长期合作关系达成协议,创立了道格拉斯·艾丽曼美居/莱坊住宅(Douglas Elliman Fine Homes/Knight Frank Residential)。最后,几星期前,Town Residential也宣布将在伦敦设立办事处,同时在巴、尼日利亚、香港等遥远地区拓展合作关系。Why so much emphasis in New York on the global market? Real estate is, after all, very local. And New Yorkers have always prided themselves on uniqueness, with quirky co-op buildings, lengthy board applications and deep neighborhood identities.为什么纽约在全球市场当中如此受重视呢?毕竟,房地产业的地域性是很强的;况且纽约人素来以自己的独特而自豪,他们的共管公寓楼外形古怪,管委会审批申请的流程冗长,社区身份的观念也根深蒂固。But over the last decade, and especially in the years since the recession, New York City real estate has undergone a significant shift. Hundreds of high-end condominiums have been built, and many of the builders no longer have, as the local cable channel NY1 News might put it, “real New Yorkers” in mind. Instead, it is the overseas buyer they are considering when they tout their tower’s expansive views of Central Park or hotel-style concierge services.不过近几十年来,尤其是在经济衰退后的这些年里,纽约市的房地产业经历了重大变迁。成百上千的高端共管公寓拔地而起,很多建筑商已不再考虑当地买家,也就是当地有线电视频道NY1新闻所说的那些“真正的纽约人”了;相反,当他们标榜其楼盘的住户能够坐拥中央公园的广阔景观,和酒店式的门房务时,他们考虑的是海外买家。And it seems to have worked. With our ever-expanding number of foreigner-friendly buildings, New York is taking its place as a hot spot for global wealth. “All my friends aly bought old townhouses in London,” said Emir Bahadir, a founder of RLTY NYC in Manhattan and a fifth-generation member of a Turkish real estate family. “They want to come to New York, where you can get developments with pools inside the apartments and beautiful design — things London can’t offer,” said Mr. Bahadir, who ought to know, having grown up in London and at a Swiss boarding school.而这招似乎已经奏效了。随着“亲外”楼盘的数量达到前所未有的水平,纽约正日益成为吸引全球财富的一大热点。“我所有朋友都在伦敦买过年代久远的联排别墅,”埃米尔·巴哈迪(Emir Bahadir)说,他是曼哈顿房企RLTY NYC的创始人,也是土耳其一个地产世家的第五代成员,“他们想来纽约,因为在纽约的开发项目,你可以买到设计美观且带游泳池的公寓——这些东西都是伦敦给不了的。”巴哈迪说。他从小在伦敦长大,在瑞士读过寄宿学校,因此了解情况。“For the first time, you have a full class of luxury condominiums in New York, and that product type caters to the non-New York buyer,” said Stuart N. Siegel, the president of Engel amp; V#246;lkers New York Real Estate. “In the past, you might have had the Olympic Tower, or Trump Tower, but those were first-generation buildings and they were seen as a class below the classic townhouse or co-op in New York. That is no longer the case.”“纽约的奢华共管公寓首度形成了气候,而这种产品类型面向的是外地的买家,”Engel amp; V#246;lkers地产公司纽约办事处的总裁斯图尔特·N·西格尔(Stuart N. Siegel)说,“过去,你可能会有奥林匹克大厦(Olympic Tower)或者川普大楼(Trump Tower),但那些是第一代楼盘,在人们眼里它们不如经典的联排别墅或合作公寓。而现在,情况不一样了。”James C. Cox Jr., a broker at Urban Compass who lived for three years in Kazakhstan, has many buyer clients from that country, once part of the Soviet bloc. “We had an early look at the Woolworth building, because I have clients interested in buying there,” he said. “There is a lot of dark, heavy wood and big panels of marble. It might not be appealing to local buyers since it is not as fresh and modern-looking, but for sure it is the style of my clients from the former Soviet Union.”Urban Compass的经纪人小詹姆斯·C·考克斯(James C. Cox Jr.)曾在哈萨克斯坦生活了三年,有很多买家客户来自这个原为苏联集团成员国之一的国度。“我们很早就关注了伍尔沃斯大厦(Woolworth),因为我有几个客户有兴趣在那里买房,”他说,“那个楼盘采用了很多深色、厚重的木材,和大块的大理石板。当地买家可能会不喜欢,因为它看起来并不新鲜,也没有现代感;但是可以肯定,我的前苏联客户很钟意这种风格。”Kenneth S. Horn, the president of Alchemy Properties, the developer that is reinventing the Woolworth tower into condominiums, said the interiors were not created to cater to any specific clientele. “We have designed the Woolworth Tower Residences to appeal to a classical sense of design,” he said. “We wanted to create units that had great architectural significance and were true to the heritage of the building.”炼金地产(Alchemy Properties)是负责将伍尔沃斯大厦改建成共管公寓楼的开发商。其总裁肯尼思·S·霍恩(Horn)说,其室内设计风格并没有刻意讨好某个特定的客户群体。“我们将伍尔沃斯大厦住宅(Woolworth Tower Residences)设计得比较吸引那些喜欢经典设计的人群,”他说,“我们想建造既有建筑重要性,又忠于原物风格的单元。”It is no secret, though, that New York developers are increasingly building with a foreign clientele in mind. And these buyers have a multitude of choices. There are the tall Midtown spires offering enormous cityscape views like One57 and 432 Park Avenue, or buildings with known brands and hotel services like the 30 Park Place Four Seasons Residences in Lower Manhattan, or highly stylized projects like the Zaha Hadid-designed condominium adjacent to the High Line park.不过,纽约开发商的项目正日益迎合外国客户的需求,已经不是什么秘密了。这些买家的选择范围很广,既有能够观赏辽阔城市景观的高耸中城区尖塔,比如One57、公园大道(Park Avenue)432号;也有附带酒店务的知名品牌,比如曼哈顿下城的公园广场(Park Place)30号四季公寓(Four Seasons Residences);还有风格独特的项目,比如由扎哈·哈迪德(Zaha Hadid)设计、毗邻高线公园(High Line park)的那些共管公寓。“A Brazilian who has a health insurance business recently bought a million apartment at One57, and we have sold a few units at the Trump SoHo just over the phone,” said Cristiano Piquet, the founder of Piquet Realty, who represents many Brazilian buyers. “Demand from Brazil is increasing, and we are going to see a big wave of buyers coming right after the elections in a few weeks,” he said. “They are uncertain of the future there, and want to park their money in a more stable economy like the U.S.”“有个开健康保险公司的巴西人,最近在One57买了一套价值6000万美元(约合人民币3.7亿元)的公寓。而且我们通过电话就卖出了苏豪川普大厦(Trump SoHo)的一些单元,”皮奎特地产(Piquet Realty)的创始人克里斯蒂亚诺·皮奎特(Cristiano Piquet)说,他有很多巴西客户,“巴西市场的需求越来越旺盛,几星期后,选举一结束,我们紧接着就会迎来一买家,”他说,“他们对那边的未来感到不确定,所以想把钱投到美国这类更加稳定的经济体中来。”Global instability is a key driver of demand here, and while there has been an increase in supply to satisfy demand, “we are still at an absorption rate of almost half of what is considered normal in New York City,” said Wendy Maitland, the president of sales at Town Residential. “Yes, we have more inventory, and yes, there will be certain segments of the product that won’t move as quickly as sellers hope, but we are still at historic lows in terms of existing inventory and inventory coming on line.”当地的房产需求,主要是由全球不稳定因素拉动的。房源的供给量已有所增涨,以满足需求,而“吸纳率依然只接近纽约市正常水平的一半。”Town Residential的销售负责人温蒂·梅特兰(Wendy Maitland)说,“诚然,我们的存量房更多了,而且,某些类别的产品不会像卖家所希望的那样很快转手;但是我们现有的存量房和即将上市的存量房,依然处在历史较低水平。”Armed with this view, Town is making an effort to push its presence overseas. “We have consciously and deliberately set about forging direct and vetted relationships with brokers in the luxury market in cities all over the globe,” Ms. Maitland said.出于这样的考虑,Town Residential正致力于海外扩张。“我们已经开始有意识地与全球各地奢华住宅市场的经纪人建立直接而长远的联系。”梅特兰说。While brokerages are expanding their footprint overseas to lure foreign buyers to Manhattan and vice versa, there are, of course, some stumbling blocks. One is New York taxes. “Taxes are a major problem,” Mr. Cox of Urban Compass said. “We help buyers structure limited liability companies to avoid, or minimize, some taxes, but it is often a challenge to explain all the different taxes they are charged.”虽然经纪公司正在纷纷进军海外,吸引外国买家前往曼哈顿(反之亦然),但是他们也不可避免地会遇到一些绊脚石。其中之一,便是纽约的房产税费。“税费是一大问题,”Urban Compass的考克斯说,“我们帮助买家组建有限责任公司来避税、或者尽量减少某些税费。但是,要想把他们负担的所有税费一一解释清楚,往往是个很大的挑战。”These charges include transfer taxes, the mortgage recording tax and the mansion tax. “When I have buyers from outside New York — not just overseas buyers but Americans who live in other states — they are overwhelmed by the taxes they see crossing the table at a closing,” said Jeffrey S. Reich, a partner at the law firm Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman amp; Herz.这些税费包括转让税、房贷登记税(mortgage recording tax)和豪宅税。“每次接待外地买家——还不仅仅是海外买家,也包括居住在其他州的美国人——他们在成交的时候都会被即将面临的税费吓到。”律师事务所Wolf Haldenstein Adler Freeman amp; Herz的合伙人杰弗里·S·莱希(Jeffrey S. Reich)说。Buyers who are borrowing more than 0,000 must pay a mortgage recording tax of 2.175 percent of the total; for properties of more than million, there is an additional 1 percent mansion tax. Then there are the transfer taxes, which can total close to 2 percent of the purchase price, and are supposedly the responsibility of the seller, but in a market like the current one, are often paid by the buyer. “It ends up that you can pay over 5 percent in taxes just for the benefit of being able to invest your money in New York City,” Mr. Reich said.贷款超过50万美元(约合人民币306万元)的买家,必须付总额的2.175%,作为房贷登记税;如购买价值超过100万美元(约合人民币612万元)的房产,还需额外缴纳1%的豪宅税。此外还有转让税,其总额可达售价的2%,本该由卖家付,但在一个当前这样的市场里,转让税往往是由买家付的。“这样算下来,你可能需要付超过5%的税费,就是为了能够享受在纽约投资的好处。”莱希说。In recent weeks, an idea has been floated of also charging a so-called pied-à-terre tax for part-time residents who buy expensive properties. Under one proposal, the owner of a unit valued at between million and million would pay 0.5 percent of the amount over the million threshold. This would gradually increase, capping off at properties of more than million, where the owner would pay a 0,000 fee plus 4 percent of the amount over million.最近几周,出现了一个新观点,就是要额外征收所谓的“临时住所税”(pied-à-terre tax),其征收对象是购买昂贵房产作为临时住所的住户。在一项提议下,如果房主的单元价值在500到600万美元(约合人民币3058到3670万),那么房主需要对超过500万美元的部分付0.5%的临时住所税。而且,税负是呈梯级上升的,最高梯级是超过2500万美元(约合人民币1.5亿元)的房产,其房主需要付37万美元(约合人民币226万元)的费用。同时,对于售价超过2500万美元的部分,还需交纳4%的税。This could have a chilling effect on the market. “My clients compare New York with Florida,” Mr. Piquet said of his Brazilian clientele, “and if Florida has much lower taxes, that could be a deciding factor for them to buy there instead.”这对于市场有着寒蝉效应(Chilling effect)。“我的客户会把纽约和佛罗里达做比较,”皮奎特提到他的巴西客户时说,“如果佛罗里达的税费要低很多,那么这会成为一个决定性的因素,促使他们转而在佛罗里达买房。”New York, of course, is not the only city popular with global buyers that charges high taxes. In London, for instance, a buyer of a new million property would pay nearly 8 percent of the value in taxes and fees, while in Hong Kong, that number can rise to as much as 25 percent, according to Liam Bailey, the global head of research at Knight Frank. London, like New York, is also bracing for the possibility of an additional tax next year, with a proposal to charge a mansion tax on properties valued at more than 2 million pounds, Mr. Bailey said.当然,纽约不是唯一一个受到全球买家热捧的高税费城市。比如说在伦敦,如果购置价值300万美元(约合人民币1835万元)的新房,买家需付将近8%的税费;而在香港,这一比例可能高达25%。这些数据来源于莱坊国际全球住宅研究部的主管利亚姆·巴莱(Liam Bailey)。伦敦和纽约一样,也在考虑明年额外设立一个税种的可能性。有提议说,要对价值超过200万英镑(约合人民币1969万元)的房产征收豪宅税,巴莱如是说。In London, and increasingly in New York, there is a feeling that wealthy foreign buyers are driving up the price of real estate for locals. There is also a fear that so many part-time residents will create ghostly avenues of tall towers that stand mostly dark and vacant in the night sky.在伦敦(在纽约也日益如此),人们感觉,富裕的外国买家正在抬高当地的房价,让本地人不胜其扰。还有人担忧,如此众多的临时住户,会催生出一条又一条“鬼街”,街边的高楼大厦在夜空下大多黑压压的一片,里面空无一人。The jury is still out, and the luxury market fueled by foreign wealth could wane. Still, half the buyers of properties priced above 2 million pounds in Central London are foreign nationals, Mr. Bailey said; they show no sign of leaving anytime soon. If the trend continues apace, New York might soon be able to make a similar claim.前景仍不明朗,而被外国富豪炒起来的奢华住宅市场也可能会衰落。不过,在伦敦市中心购买超过200万英镑房产的买家当中,依然有半数是外国人,巴莱如是说;这些人还没有任何在短期内离开的迹象。如果这个趋势继续快速发展下去,纽约或许很快也能与伦敦并驾齐驱了。 /201410/339276

The ranks of immigrants and their children will grow to hit a record share of the US population in the second half of this century, new projections show, with Asian immigration taking over as the major source of population growth.皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)一项新的预测显示,本世纪下半叶,外来移民及其子女在美国人口中的占比将升至创纪录水平,亚裔移民将接棒成为美国人口增长的主要来源。The forecasts show the extent to which immigration will reshape the US population in the coming decades, even as politicians including Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump use hostility towards foreigners to appeal to significant parts of the electorate.该预测显示出未来几十年移民将在多大程度上重塑美国人口格局,尽管包括共和党总统候选人唐纳德礠朗普(Donald Trump)在内的一些政客正通过敌视外国人来拉拢大量选民持自己。The report from the Pew Research Center finds that foreign-born individuals and their children will comprise no less than 36 per cent of the US population by 2065, higher than the peaks reached at the beginning of the 20th century and up from 26 per cent now. The ranks of foreign-born individuals alone will also rise to a record.这份研究报告发现,到2065年时,海外出生的人及其子女将至少占美国人口的36%,不但比现在的26%要高,而且高于20世纪初达到的峰值。即使只考虑海外出生的人本身,其数量也将升至创纪录水平。The research finds that the largest driver of US population growth over the next five decades will be immigration from Asian countries, with the expansion overtaking arrivals of Hispanics.该研究发现,未来50年美国人口增长的最大驱动因素将是来自亚洲国家的移民,这一移民群体的扩张将超过拉美裔移民。By 2065, Asians are projected to become the largest immigrant group, at 38 per cent of the immigrant population, surpassing Hispanics, at 31 per cent. Overall, the immigrant population will soar to 78m by 2065, compared with 45m today, with a growth rate double that of the US-born population.到2065年时,预计亚裔将成为最大的移民群体,占全部移民人口的38%,而拉美裔占31%。总体来说,到2065年时美国的外来移民人口将飙升至7800万(现在为4500万),增长速度是美国境内出生人口增速的两倍。The outlook comes as controversy over immigration plays a big role in the presidential election debate. Mr Trump’s attacks on Mexicans have raised fears among Republican strategists that the party will alienate Hispanic voters when they are becoming a powerful voice at the ballot box.移民问题引发的争论如今正是美国总统大选辩论的重头戏。特朗普对墨西哥裔移民的抨击引起了共和党内战略家的担忧,他们担心在拉美裔选民成为投票箱前一重要力量之际,共和党会疏远这些选民。His words pander to a belief that illegal immigrants are still flooding into the US. Yet the ranks of unauthorised immigrants in the US stayed static between 2009 and 2014, Pew numbers showed, as illegal arrivals from Mexico slowed.特朗普的言论迎合了某些人的一种看法,即非法移民仍在如潮水般涌入美国。然而皮尤的数据显示,2009年到2014年间,美国非法移民数量没有什么变化,而墨西哥裔非法移民的流入有所减缓。“We are basing our trends on the patterns we have seen over the last 10 years,” said Jeffrey Passel, senior demographer at the research centre.皮尤资深人口统计学家杰弗里帕塞尔(Jeffrey Passel)说:“我们是基于过去10年观察到的模式得出这一发展趋势的。”Pew polling shows Americans deeply divided over benefits of further immigration, with 55 per cent of Democrats saying immigrants make US society better while 53 per cent of Republicans say immigrants make society worse.皮尤的民调显示,对于进一步的移民流入是否有好处,美国人的看法存在严重分歧,55%的民主党人认为外来移民让美国社会变得更好,53%的共和党人认为让社会变得更糟。The US population is expected to reach 441m by 2065, compared with 324m today, with 88 per cent of the increase linked to future immigrants and their descendants, says the report.皮尤的报告显示,预计到2065年时美国人口将达4.41亿(现在为3.24亿),88%的人口增长与未来的移民及其后裔有关。 /201510/401913

Rising transport costs and pricey alcohol have earned Singapore the title of the world#39;s most expensive city, according to a new survey.一项新调查显示,交通成本高涨和昂贵的酒精饮料为新加坡赢得了全球最生活成本最高城市的头衔。The Economist Intelligence #39;s #39;The Worldwide Cost of Living#39; survey also found that Tokyo, Japan#39;s notoriously spendy capital, has fallen to sixth place from top spot in its ranking from last year.经济学人智库(Economist Intelligence ,简称EIU)进行的“全球生活成本”调查发现,东京的排名从去年的第一降至第六。Published every March to the public, the study tracks the prices of a basket of goods and services, such food, transport, utilities, alcohol, tobacco, private schools and domestic help as they were in September of the previous year. It then compares them across 131 cities around the world to form an index. The baseline of the index is New York, which has a score of 100. The survey doesn#39;t take into account the price of real estate or income taxes, but it does factor in consumption taxes such as sales tax and levies on alcohol and tobacco.这项调查的结果每年3月公布,追踪的是截至上年9月的一篮子商品和务的价格,其中包括食品、交通、公用事业、酒精饮料、烟草、私立学校和家政务等,然后对全球131个城市进行比较排名并制成指数。纽约被赋值100并被设置为基准指数。该调查未考虑房地产价格或收入所得税,但却将销售税和烟酒税纳入考量。While some question its utility, the EIU says its survey is intended for human resources managers, who use the findings to calculate how to compensate its managers and executives as they move from one city to another across the globe.有人质疑该调查的实用性。对此EIU表示,调查旨在为人事经理提供参考,他们可利用这一调查结果来计算如何为在全球城市间移居的经理和公司高管提供补偿。Singapore, which topped the rankings, earned a score of 130, meaning the cost of living there is 30% higher than in New York, which ranked 26th. The Southeast Asian city-state moved up five spots from last year#39;s survey.新加坡以130分的成绩荣登榜首,这意味着新加坡的生活成本比排在第26位的纽约高30%。和去年相比,新加坡的排名上升了五位。Persistent inflation, especially with regard to car ownership, was one major factor pushing Singapore to the top of the ranking, said Edward Bell, a Hong Kong-based economist at the EIU. Transport costs represent 20% of the overall basket of goods measured in the survey.EIU驻香港经济学家贝尔(Edward Bell)说,持续的通胀,尤其是购车带来的成本是新加坡荣升全球生活成本最高城市桂冠的主要因素。在调查涉及的一篮子商品中,新加坡的交通成本占到20%。Alcohol was another factor propelling Singapore to the top, with a bottle of table wine there costing roughly , almost twice as much as it would cost in Tokyo (around .40).酒精饮料是促使新加坡名列榜首的又一大因素,一瓶佐餐葡萄酒在新加坡的售价大约在25美元,几乎是东京售价(约为12.40美元)的两倍。Paris, with a score of 129, was ranked the world#39;s second most-expensive city, while Oslo (128), Zurich (125) and Sydney (120) ranked third through fifth.巴黎得分为129,是全球生活成本第二高的城市。奥斯陆(得分为128)、苏黎世(得分为125)和悉尼(得分为120)分别排在第三至第五位。Tokyo had a score of 118, as did Caracas, Geneva and Melbourne. Copenhagen, the last city in the top 10, scored 117.东京得分为118,与加拉加斯、日内瓦和墨尔本一样。前十名中垫底的哥本哈根得分为117。#39;You#39;re seeing the impact of the new policies in Japan and their effect on the yen,#39; said Mr. Bell. #39;Tokyo was so consistent in being in the top 3, but to see it fall quite a bit is changing perceptions.#39; He added that #39;it#39;s feeling much easier on the wallet to spend time there,#39; though the city is still #39;not exactly cheap.#39;贝尔表示,从排名中可以看到日本推出新政策后给日圆等带来的影响。他说东京以前总是排在前三,这次排名大幅下滑令外界有了新的认识。他又说现在到东京敢花钱了,虽然东京的生活成本仍然不低。According to the survey, other expensive cities in Asia-Pacific included Hong Kong (No. 13, with 113), Osaka (No. 14, with 112) and Seoul (No. 17, with 108).调查结果显示,亚太地区其他生活成本较高的城市包括香港(排名第13位,得分为113)、大阪(排名第14位,得分为112)和首尔(排名第17位,得分为108)。Chinese cities are moving up in the rankings, a reflection of higher wages, rising inflation and the appreciation of the yuan, Mr. Bell said. Shanghai rose nine spots to rank No. 21 overall. Its score of 101 means it#39;s now 1% more expensive than New York.贝尔说,受薪酬水平上涨、通货膨胀上升以及人民币升值的影响,中国内地城市在排行榜上名次有所上升。上海在此次调查中的排名上升九位,至第21位,得分为101,这意味着上海目前的生活成本比纽约贵1%。Shenzhen (No. 32, with a score of 96), Dalian (No. 42, with 92) and Beijing (No. 47, with 88) were the other top-ranking Chinese cities.深圳(排名第32位,得分为96)、大连(排名第42位,得分为92)和北京(排名第47位,得分为88)也是排名居前的中国内地城市。At the other end of the scale, the cheapest places to live continue to lie in South Asia. The survey concluded that the three least-expensive cities in the world are Mumbai (No. 131, with a score of 39), Karachi (No. 130, with 40) and New Delhi (No. 129, with 43).排名居后、生活成本最低的城市仍然在南亚。调查结果显示,全球生活成本最低的三大城市分别为孟买(排名第131位,得分为39)、卡拉奇(排名第130位,得分为40)和新德里(排名第129位,得分为43)。 /201403/278733

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