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2019年06月25日 23:38:21 | 作者:排名分享 | 来源:新华社
Russia is gearing up for an oil boom on the same scale as the US, as the techniques that sparked the shale revolution are applied to Siberia’s deposits of unconventional oil, according to one of the country’s top oil executives.俄罗斯一位石油业高管表示,俄罗斯将迎来一场规模堪比美国的石油热潮,引发美国页岩气革命的技术正应用于西伯利亚的非常规石油储量。Leonid Fedun, vice-president of Lukoil, said Russia, the world’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, will be able to maintain crude output of 10m barrels a day for years to come as output from West Siberia’s Bazhenov Shale offsets declines in its mature oilfields.卢克石油公司(Lukoil)副总裁列奥尼德#8226;费顿(Leonid Fedun)表示,仅次于沙特阿拉伯的全球第二大产油国——俄罗斯将有能力在未来几年保持1000万桶的原油日产量,来自西西伯利亚地区巴热诺夫页岩油田(Bazhenov Shale)的产量将抵消俄罗斯成熟油田产量下滑的影响。But he said such an outcome hinged on tax breaks the government has promised for the industry. Ministers have proposed a waiver of Russia’s onerous mineral extraction tax for groups drilling in the Bazhenov.但他表示,这一局面取决于政府承诺向该行业提供的税收优惠措施。部长们已提出免除在巴热诺夫钻采的石油集团繁重的矿产开采税。Mr Fedun told the Financial Times that President Vladimir Putin’s goal of keeping Russian oil production at 10m b/d till 2020 was “absolutely realistic”, “but only if these fiscal innovations are introduced”.费顿告诉英国《金融时报》,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)提出的在2020年前将俄罗斯石油日产量保持在1000万桶的目标“绝对切合实际”,“但前提是落实这些财政创新措施”。Experts have long placed Russia at or near the top of the list of countries with the potential to replicate North America’s shale revolution. It has huge unconventional resources, a sophisticated oil industry and little of the environmental opposition that has blocked shale in some European countries.长期以来,专家们一直将俄罗斯列在有可能复制北美页岩能源革命的国家名单的首位或前列。俄罗斯拥有巨大的非常规资源,技术实力雄厚的石油业,同时几乎没有遭到环保组织的反对,此类反对阻止了一些欧洲国家开采页岩资源。 /201304/232950APPLE prides itself on constantly re-imagining the future, but even the world#39;s leading gadget-maker likes to dwell on the past too. Thirty years ago Steve Jobs commanded the stage at the Flint Centre for the Performing Arts near Apple#39;s headquarters in Cupertino to show off the new Macintosh computer. On September 9th Mr Jobs#39;s successor, Tim Cook, held a similar performance in the same location to thunderous applause. Those invited were given a chance to play with the gadgets presented on stage: two new iPhones and a wearable device, called the Apple Watch. “This is the next chapter in Apple#39;s story, ” he said, sounding much like the young Mr Jobs in 1984.苹果公司以能够不断勾画未来蓝图而自豪,但即使作为世界上最顶尖的小型设备制造商,苹果也难免沉溺于过去。三十年前,史蒂芬·乔布斯在弗林特演艺中心(位于库比蒂诺的苹果公司总部附近)展示Macintosh电脑;今年9月,乔布斯的继任者,蒂姆·库克,在同一个舞台面对千万热情观众举行了一个类似的产品展示活动。被邀请到的人有机会试用展台上的设备:两台新款iPhone和一款叫做Apple Watch可佩戴手表。像当年的乔布斯一样,库克说:“这是苹果的下一篇章!”It may well be true—but not for the reasons most people might think. Consumers, analysts and investors have been howling for proof that Apple can still do the magic tricks of the Jobs era; iPad sales have weakened in recent quarters and the iPhone, launched a tech aeon ago in 2007, still generates more than half of the firm#39;s revenues. Yet lost in the maelstrom of snazzy new gadgets, applause and photos was an important shift: this week#39;s announcements showed that Apple#39;s future will be less about hardware and more about its “ecosystem”—a combination of software, services, data and a plethora of partners.这可能是真的——但原因并非大多数人想的那样。消费者、市场分析员、投资者一直都在极力试图明苹果可以再创乔布斯时代的传奇;然而,iPad近几季的销量已有所下降,于2007年发布的iPhone掀起了一段科技狂潮,它至今仍然占据苹果公司收入的半壁江山。然而,在充斥着时髦的新产品、掌声、美图的狂潮中,被人忽略的是苹果的重大转型:本周发布会表示苹果未来的重心将从硬件转移到“生态系统”——一个集软件、务、数据、众多合作伙伴于一体的有机系统。If Apple were simply a hardware-maker, there would be reason to worry. It is losing market share to rivals such as Samsung of South Korea and Xiaomi of China, which make cheaper devices, and to Google#39;s Android operating system, which runs on 71% of the world#39;s smartphones. Apple#39;s average selling price is 9, compared with 9 for smartphones worldwide, according to IDC, a market-research firm. That is good for profits, but it makes Apple increasingly a niche player, somewhat like a luxury-goods firm, says Colin Gillis of BGC, a stockbroker.如果苹果只是一家简单的硬件制造商,那么情况是让人担忧的。苹果的市场份额正在缩小,相反的韩国的三星和中国的小米因为价格低廉而占据着越来越多的市场份额,并且谷歌的安卓操作系统占领了全球70%的只能手机。据市场调研公司IDC的数据,苹果手机的平均售价为609美元,而全球智能手机均价为249美元。一名来自BGC的股票经纪人科林.吉利斯认为:这样利润固然客观,但是这使得苹果市场越来越成为一种缝隙市场,有点类似于奢侈品企业。As with Apple#39;s existing products, much effort went into the watch#39;s design. Its backplate contains sensors that measure the user#39;s vital signs; and people can send their heartbeat to other watch-wearers—as a new sort of expressive message. But starting at 9, and only usable in conjunction with an iPhone, it looks unlikely to be a serious competitor to other expensive watches (see article).与现有的产品一样,苹果为设计这款手表做出了很大努力。它的后板装有感应器,可以测量出佩带者的生命特征;作为一种新的信息表达方式,人们可以将心率数据发送给其他的手表用户。但是它的售价为349美元起,而且只能与iphone联合使用,这使得它难以敌对其他名贵手表。Still, many are likely to stick with their iPhones and even plunk down the money for an Apple Watch, because of the firm#39;s ecosystem. Apple is considered a laggard in online offerings, especially since it bungled the launch of its map service. Its services and apps can be maddening. But iTunes, Apple#39;s media store, now boasts more than 800m active users, three times as many as Amazon#39;s. Apple#39;s software and services category, which includes iTunes, its Apps Store, revenue from warranties and other businesses, brought in sales of more than billion in 2013 and is growing steadily.但是许多人仍然愿意坚守苹果阵营,继续使用iPhone,甚至是为了苹果的“生态系统”而大手笔地花钱购买Apple Watch。在线务方面,苹果被认为是落后者,尤其是它粗制滥造的地图务。它的务和应用有时候让人抓狂。但是,苹果的媒体商店iTunes,它的活跃用户现在已经飙升超过了8亿,是亚马逊的三倍之多。苹果的软件和务,包括iTunes、应用Store,来自授权和其他业务的收入等,2013年超过160亿美元,并依然在稳定增长。Apple#39;s watch is supposed to help the firm expand into new areas. One example is a mobile wallet. It aims to replace swiping credit cards with the tap of an Apple watch (or an iPhone) on a device connected to a retailer#39;s cash register. Apple#39;s new health and fitness applications help people monitor their workouts. The firm#39;s new operating systems, due out soon, will allow its devices to work together seamlessly: an e-mail started on an iPhone can be finished on an iMac.苹果试图通过智能手表拓展到新领域,移动钱包就是一个例子,它的目标是用苹果手表(或手机)轻触与收款机相连的设备来取代划信用卡。苹果新的健身应用可以帮助人们监视自己的运动过程。另外,新的操作系统即将推出,它将实现设备的无缝操作:如在iPhone上开始写的电子邮件可以在iMac电脑上继续写完。For Ben Wood of CCS Insight, another market-research firm, Apple#39;s plan is to be even more like the Hotel California (as in the Eagles#39; song), “where you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave”. The more Apple-gadget owners store their data in them, from photos to health information, the more they are locked in, and must stick with Apple.另一家市场调研公司CCS Insight 的本.伍德认为,苹果的计划更像是“加州旅馆”(老鹰乐队的歌):“你可以随时退房,但却永远不会离开。”苹果用户在系统中储存的数据越多,从照片到健康信息,他们就越依赖苹果。At the same time, Apple is trying to become more open to partners—a big change for the firm. “There has always been a huge tension between keeping control and opening up” at Apple, explains Michael Cusumano of MIT#39;s Sloan School of Management. Mr Jobs saw Apple products as complete works of art and never wanted them unbundled. Only after the executive team rebelled, for instance, did he relent and in 2003 let iTunes become available on Windows—a move that dramatically increased sales of the iPod.与此同时,苹果正尝试向合作伙伴们更开放——这对苹果是个好机会。麻省理工斯隆管理学院的迈克尔.库森曼诺解释说,就开放程度问题,苹果内部一直存在很大分歧。在乔布斯看来,苹果的产品是一个完整的艺术作品,绝不希望它被拆分。直到管理团队出现反叛之后,他才在2003年做了退步,让iTune可以通过Windows访问——这一举措大大地提升了iPod的销量。Three years after Mr Jobs#39;s death, Apple seems to be y to go further, hoping to entice other firms to contribute to its ecosystem and make it more attractive. Earlier this year Apple announced a partnership with IBM, as well as changes that make it easier for outside developers to design apps for the iPhone. And Apple#39;s watch will have third-party apps from the start. The iPhone launched without the app store; it opened only a year later, after many outside developers had hacked the device, allowing them to write apps for it.乔布斯去世了三年,苹果似乎要采取进一步行动,希望通过与其他公司合作来构建苹果的“生态系统”,使其更具吸引力。今年早些时候,苹果就宣布与IBM合作,同时作了些改变以方便外部开发者为iPhone设计应用。并且苹果手表一开始就会有第三方应用。iPhone刚发行的时候并没有应用商店,直到一年后许多外界开发商黑进了手机,苹果才勉强允许他们开放应用。The new openness does not only apply to technology. Mr Cook has let outsiders join his inner circle, hiring executives from retail and other industries to expand Apple#39;s expertise. He has also overseen the largest acquisition in Apple#39;s history, the billion purchase in May of Beats, a headphones and music-streaming company. For its new payment system it teamed up with big retailers, such as Whole Foods and Walgreens, and credit-card firms, including MasterCard and Visa.这种新的开放制度不仅适用于技术层面,库克已经允许外界人士参与它的内部圈子,并且聘请零售和其他行业的管理者来扩展苹果公司的业务面。库克见了苹果史上最大的一起并购案:苹果于今年5月斥资30亿美元收购了Beats(一家生产耳机和音乐流媒体公司)。至于其新开发的付体系,苹果将与各大零售商进行合作,如有机食品连锁店Whole Foods 和沃尔格林,以及信用卡公司,包括万事达卡和Visa卡。This opening-up may need to go further, to keep up with Google#39;s ecosystem. The internet giant#39;s services still beat Apple#39;s. And it not only lets device-makers modify Android, but also gives it away (albeit with conditions, such as the requirement to carry Google#39;s services). “Apple v Android” could still end up a repeat of “Apple v Windows”: in personal computers Apple lost the battle against Microsoft because it refused to license its operating system to other hardware-makers.为了赶上谷歌的生态系统,苹果的对外开放制度需要更进一步。目前苹果的务仍逊于这家互联网巨头。谷歌不仅允许制造商们改造安卓系统,而且可以完全撒手不管(虽然这是有条件的,比如必须安装谷歌的某些务)。“苹果VS安卓”的结局可能会和“苹果VS Windows”一样:在个人电脑市场,苹果因为拒绝向其他硬件制造商认其操作系统,所以不敌微软。Umberto Eco, an Italian novelist, once compared Apple#39;s platform to Catholicism and Microsoft#39;s to Protestantism. The Macintosh, he wrote, “tells the faithful how they must proceed, step by step”. By contrast, Windows “allows free interpretation of scripture...and takes for granted the idea that not all can achieve salvation.” This still rings true today, but Apple is clearly going through a Reformation.一名意大利小说家恩贝托.艾克曾经将苹果比作天主教,而将微软比作新教。他这样写道:Mac电脑“告诉信徒必须沿着一个方向,一步一步坚定地走下去。”相反的,Windows则“允许对教义进行自由的解释,并且认为不是所有的想法都可以最终解决问题。”这些道理至今仍然受用,但是很显然,苹果已经开始改变并且将进一步改革。 /201409/330253

Apple Inc., welcome to stock-market purgatory.苹果公司(Apple Inc.)的股票将在市场上遭受磨难。That#39;s essentially the view Barclays analysts took Wednesday in downgrading the iPhone and iPad maker to equal weight from overweight. The firm predicts the stock will remain rangebound for at least the next year, and could suffer growing pains similar to the ones software giant Microsoft Corp. experienced when it transitioned into a mature, value stock.这基本上就是巴克莱(Barclays)分析师周三将苹果公司的评级从增持下调至中性时所持的观点。该行预计,至少在未来一年,苹果的股价都将保持区间波动,而且可能承受越来越大的压力,类似于微软(Microsoft Co.)的股票在向一只成熟的价值股转变时所遭遇的情况。#39;Frankly, we just couldn#39;t quite bring ourselves to use smart watches or TVs as reasons to raise numbers--nor were we fully convinced that these products could move the needle like new categories did in the old days,#39; Barclays wrote to clients. #39;As a result, we believe it is time to step aside, given a maturing smart phone market.#39;巴克莱在给客户的报告中写道,坦率说,我们不能仅凭智能手表或智能电视就上调预期,我们也不太相信这些产品可以像新产品在过去那样产生决定性作用;因此,鉴于智能手机市场日趋成熟,我们相信现在是投资者回避的时候。Apple shares recently fell 1.3% to 0.50. The stock is up about 20% over the past 12 months, although it remains well off its record high above 0 hit in September 2012.苹果的股价最近下跌了1.3%,至530.50美元。该股在过去12个月上涨了约20%,但仍远低于其在2012年9月创下的逾700美元的纪录高点。One of the bullish views on Apple in recent months has been the company#39;s relatively cheap valuation compared to its peers. It trades at about 12 times future earnings, according to FactSet, less than the price-to-earnings ratios of Microsoft, Google Inc. and Facebook Inc.最近几个月,看好苹果股票的观点之一就是该股的估值与同类股相比较为便宜。FactSet的数据显示,苹果的预期市盈率约为12倍,低于微软、谷歌(Google Inc.)和Facebook Inc.。Barclays isn#39;t convinced. #39;We believe the valuation argument is becoming less and less helpful,#39; the firm said. #39;Furthermore, we look at a valuation analogy vs. Microsoft from 2000 to about 2010 and see no precedent that large-size tech companies simply start to broadly outperform again after a tough year or two if the law of large numbers is catching up to them and margins have peaked.#39;巴克莱并不认同这种看法。该行称,我们相信估值偏低的说法会越来越没有意义。另外,我们对2000年至2010前后的苹果与微软的估值进行了对比,发现如果符合大数定律且利润率已达到峰值,没有大型科技公司在度过艰难的一两年后能再度表现出众的先例。Here#39;s a chart overlaying Microsoft#39;s performance from 1998 through the present compared to Apple#39;s performance since 2011.下面这张图将1998年至今的微软股价表现与2011年至今的苹果股价表现进行了对比。Barclays offered four similarities between Apple now and Microsoft back then:巴克莱列举了苹果公司与微软的四点相似之处:Market Cap: Microsoft#39;s market cap peaked at about 0 billion in 1999. Apple surpassed that mark in August 2012, but shares peaked the next month. #39;The point is that the most dominant tech leaders of their era don#39;t necessarily just regroup from these types of peaks and re-assume a new all-time high market cap after a year or two,#39; Barclays says. #39;They may get usurped in the ensuing decade or two. These observations are easier to see in hindsight -- but it shows how hard it is to get to this type of size and stay there, much less regroup -- and rise above it again.#39;市值:微软的市值在1999年达到了约6,200亿美元的峰值。苹果的市值在2012年8月超过这一水平,但股价在随后的一个月达到了峰值。巴克莱认为,关键问题是,一个时代最具影响力的科技领导者并不一定会在达到这样的峰值后重整旗鼓,并在一两年后再度创下新的最高市值纪录。该行称,这些企业的地位可能会在随后的一二十年被取代;回顾企业的发展历程会更容易看清这一点,但这也说明一个企业要达到并保持这种状态有多难,更不要说重整旗鼓、再创新高。The Next Big Thing: Apple trades at about 12 times next year#39;s earnings, down from its P/E of 15.9 in October 2012. By comparison, Microsoft traded at about 20 times earnings in 2004, but its multiple decreased and has roughly maintained in the mid-teen range since then. #39;Once the market decides that your main product will remain slow for a long time, there does seem to be a visible pattern for multiples to sustain lower levels for a long time even if revenues grow --as was the case with Microsoft,#39; Barclays says.公司发展过程中的下一个重大事件:目前苹果以下一年预期收益计算的市盈率为12倍,2012年10月份时的市盈率为15.9倍。与之相比,微软2004年的市盈率约为20倍,但此后市盈率下降并基本维持在13至16倍之间。巴克莱指出,一旦市场认定一家公司的主要产品会长期维持缓慢发展,那么即便该公司的收入增长,其市盈率长期维持在较低水平似乎也是一种明显格局,就像微软的情况。Valuation: #39;Both companies seemed to share a peak in the valuation that roughly coincided with the high point in gross margins,#39; Barclays says. #39;Microsoft#39;s operating margins were in the high 50% range, which marked the high point in the shares. Apple#39;s operating margins were over 39% in the second quarter of 2012, and the high in the shares followed about two quarters later.#39;股票估值:巴克莱表示,苹果与微软的股票估值高峰似乎都有与各自毛利率的高点基本同时出现。在微软的营业利润率处于57%-59%的水平时,其股票估值也处于高点。苹果的营业利润率在2012年第二季度突破39%,其股票估值的高点出现在大约两个季度之后。Buybacks: #39;Both Microsoft and Apple bowed to market pressure to issue dividends and start buybacks -- and it really did not lead to a resurgence in share price,#39; Barclays says. #39;We acknowledge that Apple may have put a #39;floor#39; in its stock at 0 given recent buyback acceleration, but the stock may not outperform from the mid 0s simply due to buybacks.#39;股票回购:巴克莱表示,微软和苹果都迫于市场压力派发了股息并开始回购股票,但这并没有导致其股价回升;从苹果最近加快回购速度来看,该公司可能已将股价的“底线”定在500美元,但正是由于回购行动,苹果的股价可能不会大幅高于540-560美元。In an interview earlier this month, Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company had bought billion of its own shares in the two weeks following its quarterly results. Apple reported lower iPhone sales than projected and warned that revenue in the current quarter might fall from a year ago.本月早些时候,苹果公司首席执行长库克(Tim Cook)在接受采访时表示,苹果在发布季度财报后的两周内已回购了140亿美元的股票。此前,苹果宣布iPhone销售额的下降幅度高于预期,并警告说当前财季的收入可能低于上年同期。Apple has bought back more than billion of its shares over the past 12 months, an aggressive push that billionaire investor Carl Icahn has been advocating since he took a position in the company last year.苹果公司在过去12个月回购了超过400亿美元的股票,这是富豪投资人伊坎(Carl Icahn)去年入股苹果以来一直在倡导的大力度行动。Still, unless Apple really has a breakthrough product up its sleeve, Barclays sees the company#39;s future looking awfully similar to Microsoft at the turn of the century.不过,巴克莱认为,除非苹果真的拥有突破性产品,否则该公司的前景看起来与微软在世纪之交时的情况颇为近似。#39;We see plenty of evidence to suggest that each product cycle or #39;next big thing#39; will get less and less meaningful. The risk to investors, we believe, is that earnings power ex-buybacks could be flattish stemming from multiple pressures on margins,#39; Barclays says.巴克莱表示,我们看到有很多据表明每一个产品周期或者说“下一个重大事件”的影响力会越来越小。我们认为,投资者面临的风险是,由于利润率面临多重压力,除了回购之外的收益能力可能平平。 /201402/277076

Keeping track of the hottest Chinese apps is nigh impossible. Apps, or what you hear more often in China is A-P-P, quickly come and quickly go. Right now the hottest is MYOTee, a cartoon avatar creator with dozens of options.跟踪中国最热门的应用程序几乎不可能。应用程序在中国通常被称为A-P-P,往往是迅速窜红,又马上过气。眼下,中国最火的应用是卡通头像制作应用脸萌(MYOTee),它能向用户提供几十种选择。The app got hot earlier this month around China’s Dragon Boat Festival, when over a couple days it was downloaded more than a million times, according to a QQ report. It hit the top of Apple’s free app ranking in China, according to Technode, a TechCrunch partner in China.脸萌于本月早些时候的端午节前后窜红。据QQ的一份报告称,几天之内,脸萌的下载量就已经超百万。据科技客TechCrunch中国合作伙伴Technode称,在中国,脸萌已经成为排名第一的苹果免费应用。MYOTee began as a T-shirt company using the designs of a Hong Kong artist. You created a cartoon and printed it on T-shirts, mugs, wrist bands, even a watch. Last year a former Tencent employee decided to move it into the app space. Chinese fans can transfer their characters to popular social networks Sina Weibo and Tencent’s WeChat.脸萌最初是一家使用香港某艺术家设计方案的T恤公司。用户可以创作一个卡通形象,然后印在T恤、马克杯、腕带、甚至手表上。去年,一位以前腾讯工作过的员工决定,把这种做法移植到应用程序领域。中国粉丝能将自己创作的卡通形象导入新浪微和腾讯的微信等流行的社交网络。If it is China’s next big thing, don’t expect to find it around the world. It seems “Mad Men Yourself” has a stranglehold on the avatar space in the U.S. and Europe.或许脸萌有望在中国成为下一款大红大紫的应用,但别指望它能席卷全球。欧美的头像市场似乎已被“Mad Men Yourself”应用牢牢掌握。The company has received funding from International Data Group and is seeking a second round of funding, according to Technode.据Technode称,脸萌已获美国国际数据集团(International Data Group)投资,正在进行第二轮融资。 /201406/305763

The news broke on a recent Friday night: Nike Fires Majority of FuelBand Team, Will Stop Making Wearable Hardware. It was a shock to just about anyone who had bought, worked on, wrote about, or invested in the white-hot category called ;wearables.;不久前的一个周五晚上爆出了一个重大新闻:耐克公司(Nike)炒掉了FuelBand团队的大部分成员,将停止生产可穿戴设备。对买过、用过、报道过或投资过所谓“可穿戴设备”这款炙手可热产品的人来说,这个消息都不啻于晴天霹雳。Hailed as the next big platform in computing, wearable ;smart; devices like fitness tracking bracelets, clip-on heart monitors, Google Glass, smartwatches, and even smart wigs (yes, smart wigs) suddenly looked a lot less interesting.这样一来,一度被捧为下一代计算大平台的可穿戴“智能”设备,如健康追踪腕带、卡扣式心脏监护仪、谷歌眼镜、智能手表,甚至还有智能假发(没错,就是智能假发)突然之间就魅力大减。If Nike (NKE), which had sold an estimated million worth of FuelBand bracelets in 2013, employing 200 people and even running an accelerator program around the device, was no longer interested, did this spell disaster for the category? What does Nike know that the rest of us didn#39;t?2013年,耐克公司售出了约3300万美元的FuelBand腕带,为此它招了200名员工,甚至围绕这个设备开展了一个加速计划。如果它都对可穿戴设备没兴趣了,这是不是意味着这种设备气数将尽了?耐克又是怎么知道我们没兴趣了呢?Since the news, the top wearable makers have openly touted the future of their business. This week at the TechCrunch Disrupt conference in New York, Hosain Rahman, CEO of Jawbone, said his company will expand the amount of data it tracks and services around it. Jawbone#39;s UP band accounts for 19% of the fitness tracking device market. Meanwhile Fitbit, which dominates the category with 68% market share, made a short statement to CNET that it#39;s been doing this for seven years, guys. Fitbit, with products like the Flex, One, and Zip, remains confident, ;despite some of the recent sensationalized headlines.;这个消息曝出后,一些可穿戴设备顶级制造商就开始公开造势,大肆渲染自己业务的美好未来。本周在纽约举行的TechCrunch Disrupt大会上,Jawbone公司首席执行官侯赛因o拉赫曼称,公司将扩展它追踪的数据量,增加务种类。Jawbone的UP腕带现在已占健康追踪市场19%的份额。同时,以68%的市场份额雄踞市场老大的Fitbit公司则对科技资讯网(CNET)做了一个简短声明,称自己这么做早已有七年之久了。凭借Flex、One和Zip这些产品,“尽管最近冒出了几条耸人听闻的头条新闻,”Fitbit照样自信满满。Even Nike has clarified the initial report, saying it is not giving up on all of fitness tracking, only the hardware part. Nike will stop producing FuelBands itself, but it will continue to build software and fitness tracking apps for phones, smartwatches, and whatever other form factor smart devices take.耐克也站出来澄清最初的报道,称不是要放弃所有的健康追踪业务,只是放弃硬件罢了。耐克将不再生产FuelBand,但还会继续为智能手机、智能手表以及各种智能设备打造软件和健康追踪应用。Nonetheless, it#39;s clear the fitness tracking and wearables need to evolve beyond their initial offerings. Many of the fitness trackers in their current form are large, unattractive, uncomfortable bracelets. But an even bigger issue is what these devices do. As my colleague JP Mangalindan wrote earlier this week, his quest to become a quant junkie failed when the available options required him to use disparate systems that didn#39;t talk to each other:不过,现有的健康追踪和可穿戴设备显然需要改进。现在很多健康追踪器都是又大又难看、戴起来也不舒的腕带。而更大的问题在于它们的实际功能。正如我的同事JPo曼格林丹本周初所写的那样,他想变成数字达人的愿望落了空,因为这些设备上的可用选项要求他使用完全不同、彼此无法兼容的系统:One day, I just stopped using everything. I had invested hundreds of dollars into hardware and software and cobbled them together so I could to get a holistic picture of my day. But the process felt too complicated for its own good -- a wristband for sleeping, another for the daytime. An app for eating, and then another running. Why couldn#39;t there be one piece of hardware and software to rule them all?有一天,我开始停止使用任何设备。本来我花了好几百美元买硬件买软件,再把它们生拉硬凑到一起,以为这样就能全面了解我每天的健康信息了。但实现这个目标的过程感觉真是太费事了——睡觉需要一种腕带,白天需要另外一种,吃饭需要一种应用,跑步又得用别的。为什么就不能有种软硬件一体的设备来执行所有这些任务呢?Beyond that, merely knowing how many steps you#39;ve taken each day isn#39;t all that compelling to a large, mainstream audience. It#39;s why one-third of consumers have abandoned their devices, according to a report by Endeavor Partners. Industry insiders say the number of inactive fitness tracking devices is likely much higher than that.除了这一点,对绝大多数人来说,光知道自己每天走了多少步其实没什么吸引力。咨询公司Endeavor Partners的一份报告称,这也是为什么有三分之一的消费者没再用这类设备。而业内人士称,实际停用的健康追踪设备数量很可能比这多得多。For wearables and fitness trackers to become a permanent part of our lives, the devices must become ;need to have,; not ;nice to have.; The only way to do that is to offer better functionality. I spoke with Sonny Vu, CEO of Misfit, about the future of the category. His company was called Misfit Wearables until recently, when it dropped the word ;wearables; from its name.可穿戴设备和健康追踪器要想成为我们生活中不可或缺的一部分,它们就必须成为“必不可少的”、而不是“有了也不错”的时髦玩意。要实现这个目标,唯一的办法是具备更好的功能。我曾和Misfit公司的首席执行官桑尼o乌探讨过这种产品今后的发展。他的公司直到最近还叫Misfit Wearables,然后才去掉wearables这个词。Vu said he expects fitness trackers to be a tiny part of the overall wearables industry. They#39;ll be like iPods and GPS trackers -- useful to some, but no longer top sellers, and mostly replaced by smartphone apps. Fitness trackers will likely be killed by the smartwatch, Vu says.乌表示,他认为健康追踪设备今后只会占可穿戴设备市场的一小部分。它们将像iPod和GPS追踪器一样——对有些人有用,但再也不会畅销热卖,而且它们中的大多数都将被智能手机应用所取代。他说,它们很可能被智能手表给干掉。His company produced a fitness tracking wearable device for practice, even as he knows the category will quickly peak and decline. ;We did it because we#39;re being opportunistic,; he says. ;This is where things are going now, and we#39;re exercising our muscles as an organization to build and ship a product.;就算他明知健康追踪可穿戴设备市场会很快大起大落,他们公司还是投产了,目的主要是为了练手。他说:“我们这么做主要是为了抓住机会。它是现在的发展潮流,我们作为一家公司生产它并投放市场可以小试身手。”The next step in the evolution of wearable devices will require a more compelling use case. It will need to pass the ;turn around test,; he says. That means, would you turn around for it if you were halfway to work and realized you#39;d forgotten it? Most people would turn around for their phone, keys, or wallet. But they wouldn#39;t turn around for their activity monitors.可穿戴设备要进一步发展需要有更具吸引力的使用案例。他说,它必须经过“转身测验”的考验。这就是说,如果人们在上班路上忘了带它,他们会不会转身回家去拿?大多数人会转身回家拿手机、钥匙和钱包。但他们不会为了这些活动监控设备转身回去。;Fitness tracking is just not a compelling use case,; Vu says. ;We makers haven#39;t been able to make it sufficiently compelling. It doesn#39;t pass the turn around test. It doesn#39;t even come close.;乌说:“健康追踪还不是太有吸引力的使用案例。我们这些厂家还没法让它具有足够的吸引力,它没法通过转身测验,甚至连接近这个水平都做不到。”Vu is aly scheming up ideas to make wearable devices more compelling.不过他已经在策划让可穿戴设备更有吸引力的创意了。One way to pass the turn around test is with ;persistent identity.; Better than fingerprint recognition, wearable devices would use a person#39;s heart waves to identify them. This proposition becomes compelling, ;if it identifies you, opens your car, turns on your lights and you can use it to pay, all with your physiological signature,; he says, ;and once your take it off of your body, it is no longer a secure device.;要通过转身测验的一个办法是让它拥有“固定身份”。比指纹识别更好的一点是,可穿戴设备可以用人们的心电图来识别用户。他说:“如果它能用你的生理信号认出你,打开车门,开灯,还能付账,一旦离开你的身体,它就不再安全好用,”那这种功能将会很有吸引力。Vu said this would be similar to Disney#39;s MagicBands, the bracelets that allow families visiting a Disney (DIS) theme park to check in, unlock their hotel rooms, enter parks, pay for goods, and connect to their photos online, all by scanning a bracelet. MagicBands essentially replace keys and wallets within Disney#39;s properties. ;That is something I could get behind if they could make it a little nicer and it worked outside of the Magic Kingdom and in the rest of the world,; Vu says.乌说这将会和迪斯尼公司(Disney)的魔力腕带(Magicband)很像。这条腕带只要扫描一下,就能让一家人去迪斯尼主题公园玩时办理入住、打开旅馆房门、进入公园、买东西、上网查看照片。实际上在迪斯尼所属的领地里,这条魔力腕带就取代了钥匙和钱包。乌称:“如果迪斯尼公司能把它做得更漂亮些,它还能在魔法王国以外的其他地方用上的话,我一定会力挺它。”That#39;s one direction the hot category of wearable devices is likely to go. But for now, Vu is sticking with fitness trackers. Launched in the fourth quarter of 2013, Misfit sold 200,000 devices, a number that#39;s increasing each quarter. He expects that, like the market for iPods and GPS trackers, fitness trackers like his will decline, and some hardware makers will follow Nike#39;s footsteps, focusing on smartwatch software over hardware.这就是现在大热的可穿戴设备一个可能的发展方向。但现在乌还得继续做健康追踪设备。Misfit的这个设备2013年第四季度首发,现在已经卖出了20万个,而且每个季度的销量都在增长。他预计,和iPod及GPS追踪器的市场一样,像他这种健康追踪器的销售也会逐渐下降,一些硬件厂商也会步耐克的后尘,最终致力开发智能手表的软件而不是硬件。The era of fitness tracking devices might be waning. But for wearables, it#39;s still early days.健康追踪设备的时代可能将日渐衰落,但对可穿戴设备来说,日子才刚开始。 /201405/298918

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