上海美容医院静安区QQ知识

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原标题: 上海美容医院静安区快问优惠
ARE heatwaves more common than they used to be? That is the question addressed by James Hansen and his colleagues in a paper just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Their conclusion is that they are-and the data they draw on do not even include the current scorcher that is drying up much of North America and threatening its harvest. The team#39;s method of presentation, however, has caused a stir among those who feel that scientific papers should be dispassionate in their delivery of the evidence. For the paper, interesting though the evidence it delivers is, is far from dispassionate.热浪来袭真的比以前更加频繁了吗?詹姆斯#8226;汉森与他的同事试图在《美国国家科学院院报》上发表的一篇新文章中回答这一问题。他们得出的结论是,情况的确如此,而且得出这一结论的依据这还不包括最近北美的酷热天气。现在那里的大部分地区已经干旱无比,当地农作物的收成也因此受到了威胁。然而,詹姆斯#8226;汉森与他的同事所采用的展示方案却在一群人中引起了骚动。这些人认为科技论文在表述据时应客观公正,但有意思的是,该文章在表述据时却远未做到不偏不倚。Dr Hansen, who is head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, a branch of NASA that is based in New York, is a polemicist of the risks of man-made global warming. Despite his job running a government laboratory, he has managed to get himself arrested on three occasions for protesting against those he thinks are causing such climate change. He clearly states in the paper#39;s introduction that he was looking for a way of conveying his fears to a sceptical public.总部在纽约的戈达德太空研究所(GISS)是美国国家航空航天局的一个分部门,该研究所的负责人汉森士能言善辩,他声称人为因素导致的全球变暖将给人类带来危害。尽管汉森士主管政府实验室,他却参加过抗议活动,以此来反对那些他认为将造成此类气候变化的行为,而他也因此;如愿;被警察逮捕过三次。汉森士在他的文章序言中明确指出,他正在寻找一种方法,以此让那些对他的观点持怀疑态度的公众体会到他的焦虑。Some of that scepticism is connected with the fact that although changes in the climate will inevitably result in changes in the weather, ascribing any given event-such as a local heatwave-to climate change is impossible. Dr Hansen has therefore tried to go beyond the study of individual causes by demonstrating that what was once unusual is now common.尽管气候变化将不可避免地导致天气变化,但不能将所有特定事件(如地方性的热浪)都归因于气候变化,而公众的怀疑态度中有一部分就与这一事实有关。因此,汉森士通过论过去人们眼中的异常天气如今已是十分常见,试图使他的研究不仅仅局限于个别原因。Longer, hotter summers夏天愈加漫长炎热了To do so, he and his colleagues took 60 years#39; worth of data (the period from 1951 to 2011) from the Goddard Institute#39;s surface air-temperature analysis. This analysis divides the planet#39;s surface into cells 250km (about 150 miles) across and records the average temperature in each cell. The researchers broke their data into six decade-long blocks and compared those blocks#39; statistical properties.为此,汉森士与其同事从戈达德研究所收集了60年(从1951年至2011年)地表气温分析数据。这些分析材料将地球表面分成了一个个宽250公里(约150英里)的区块,并记录了每个区域内的平均温度。研究者将这些数据按十年一组分成了六个时间段,并对这些时间段内的统计特性进行了比较。They looked in particular at the three months which constitute summer in the northern hemisphere (June, July and August). First, they created a reference value for each cell. This was its average temperature over those three months from 1951-80. Then they calculated how much the temperature in each cell deviated from the cell#39;s reference value in any given summer. That done, they plotted a series of curves, one for each decade, that showed how frequently each deviant value occurred.研究者特别关注了北半球夏季三个月(六月、七月、八月)的温度。首先,他们计算出了1951年至1980年每一个区块夏季三个月的平均温度,并将这些数据作为每个区块的参考值。接着,研究者又计算在任意指定的夏季内每个区块内的温度分别与各自的参考值存在多少偏差。这一步完成后,他们以十年为单位绘制了六条曲线,这些曲线显示出了每一个偏差值发生的频率。Since small deviations are common and large ones are rare, the result of plotting data in this way is a curve shaped somewhat like the cross-section of a bell. Such distributions can be modelled by a mathematical function known as the normal distribution-or ;bell curve;.由于小的偏差时有发生,而大的偏差则较为少见,因此用这一方法对数据进行描绘,得出的曲线形状就像一个钟的横截面。这样的分布状态可以用数学上的一个函数来表示,即正态分布,又称;钟形曲线;。Whether based on data or a mathematical ideal, such a curve always has two parameters. These are its mean (the value of all of the data points added together and divided by the number of points; this is also the peak of an ideal curve) and its standard deviation, which measures how wide the bell is. The standard deviation is calculated from all of the individual deviations of the data points.无论是基于数据还是理想数学模型,钟形曲线都有两个参数。一个是平均值(将所有数据的值相加,除以总数所得;同时也是这条理想曲线峰值的横坐标值),另一个是它的标准差(代表钟形曲线的;胖瘦;)。标准差可以通过计算所有数值的方差(再开方)得到。To see what was going on, Dr Hansen superimposed the actual curves for each decade from the fifties to the noughties on a normal distribution, which acted as a reference curve. To make all the curves comparable, he expressed the values of the actual deviations as fractions of a standard deviation, and their frequencies as proportions of their total number.为了弄清气候变化,汉森士以正态分布曲线为参照曲线,将其与六十年中每十年一条的实际曲线相叠加。为了使所有这些曲线具有可比性,汉森士将实际偏差值用其与所属样本标准差的比例来衡量,用数据发生偏差数与数据总数的比例表述其频率。As the chart (right) shows, there are two trends. First, the peaks of the data-based curves move right, over time, with respect to the reference curve. In other words, the average temperature is rising. Second, more recent curves are flatter. A flatter curve means a bigger standard deviation and a wider sp of results.如(右)图所示,钟形曲线表现出了两种趋势。第一,对照参考曲线,随着时间的推移,这种数据型曲线的峰值会向右移,也就是说地球上的平均温度在上升。第二,时间距离现在越近,曲线越;矮胖;,这也就意味着标准差越大,温度数据分布越广。If the mean of each curve were the same, such flattening would imply both more cold periods and more hot ones. But because the mean is rising, the effect at the cold end of the curves is diminished, while that at the hot end is enhanced. The upshot is more hot periods of local weather.如果每一条曲线的平均值相同,那么这种平滑过程也就意味着地球上的寒冷期和炎热期的出现次数都会增加。但由于这些曲线的平均值在增加,因此地球上寒冷期的出现次数会减少,而炎热期的出现次数则会增加。最终导致的结果就是各地出现炎热天气的次数越来越多。Moreover, the bell-curve method makes it possible to say just how much more hot weather there is. Dr Hansen defined extreme conditions as those occurring more than three standard deviations from the mean of his reference curve. In that curve, this would be an eighth of a percent at each end, which is more or less the value in the curve for 1951-61. Nowadays, though, extreme conditions (or, at least, those that would have been considered extreme half a century ago) can be found at any given time in about 8% of the world.此外,有了钟形曲线,人们还能判断炎热天气的出现频率比过去增加了多少。汉森士下了定义:如果在他的参考曲线中某一数值偏离其平均值达到或超过三个标准差,那么这就是极端天气。在参考曲线中(标准的正态分布曲线),左右两端数据中偏离均值超过三个标准差的极端数据应该恰好分别为0.125%(百分之一的八分之一),而1951至1961年这一时间段的极端数据分布情况大致上也符合这一特征。但现在世界上约有8%的地区在特定时间内都有极端天气(或者,至少在半个世纪前会被认为是极端天气)的出现。Local weather patterns do, of course, have local causes. To that extent, they are accidental. But Dr Hansen#39;s analysis suggests that claims there is more hot weather around than there used to be have substance, too.当然,各地天气模式的出现的确包含着地方性的原因。在这种程度上说,它们的发生是具有偶然性的。但汉森士的分析表明,各地的炎热天气的确比以往多这种说法也是有依据的。Nothing in his analysis speaks of the cause of that substance. That is deliberate. As he says in the paper, he wants the data to speak for themselves-though he is personally convinced that the cause is human-generated emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. But as the ed States bakes in what may turn out to be a record heatwave, he hopes he might now persuade those for whom global warming is, as it were, on the back burner, to agree that it is real, and to think about the consequences.但他的分析并没有涉及到这种依据的来源,而这也是汉森士有意为之。正如他在文章中所说,他希望数据能说明问题——尽管他本人相信气候变暖是因为人类排放二氧化碳等温室气体造成的。但现在,一股或许是有史以来最猛烈的热浪正在炙烤着美国。他希望他现在能够说那些跟过去一样搁置考虑全球变暖问题的人,使他们认同全球变暖现象的确存在并考虑其后果。 /201208/195399THIS summer 20m or so Americans have hit the road in motor homes or towable caravans. El Monte RV, a national recreational-vehicle rental chain, observes that rentals are up about 40% year on year so far for 2012, with the strongest growth in the north-east. The manager at the El Monte branch in Linden, New Jersey is seeing double-digit growth over last year. RV sales are up, too. According to the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA), a trade group, wholesale shipments have increased 5% over 2010 and are expected to grow another 7% by the end of the year.今年夏天,大约有两千万美国人开着房车或者拉着拖车上了路。全美休闲车出租连锁公司艾尔蒙特休闲车租赁发现,2012年车辆出租数量比去年同比增长了40%,其中,东北地区增长最高。艾尔蒙特位于新泽西州林登市的分公司经理正在见两位数的同比增长。同时,休闲车的销售额也有所上涨。据美国房车工业协会(RVIA,一家贸易集团)透露,去年批发供货量比2010年提高了5%,预计今年再涨7%。RVs sell for as little as ,000 for a caravan to .5m and higher for a deluxe motor home. More than 90% of them are made in the ed States and more than 80% in a single county in Indiana. James Ashurst of RVIA sees the RV market as a sort of bellwether of the American economy. In 2009 it was hard to shift the things; but now, says Andy Heck, a dealer at Alpin Haus in Amsterdam, New York, ;Growth in sales is a good sign that credit is opening up.;在艾尔蒙特休闲车租赁,一辆休闲车只卖5000美元,拖车却要150万美元,豪华房车卖的更贵。这些车90%以上是产于美国,其中有80%以上都产自印第安纳州的一个县城。RVIA的詹姆斯#8226;艾舍斯特(James Ashurst)认为休闲车租赁市场是美国经济的一只领头羊。纽约州阿姆斯特丹市Alpin Haus的经销商安迪#8226;赫克(Andy Heck)称,在2009年作买卖相当困难,但是现在,;销售业绩增长是建立信誉的好兆头。;Affordability and flexibility are the main attractions. Most Americans get only two weeks of annual holiday and find it hard to escape work. Many prefer to go away for several long weekends, so do not stray far from home; RV-drivers often stay within 200 miles of it. Some even commute to work from campsites. The average rental cost is about ,200 a week, potentially much cheaper than a hotel, especially for families.房车两大主要卖点是价格合理,用途广泛。大多数美国人的年假都只有两个星期,要想借此逃离工作可不是那么简单。因此,很多人都选择出去度一个长周末[1],这样就不会离家太远;开休闲车就能把离家范围控制在200英里之内。甚至还有些人干脆就往返于工作和营地。租一辆房车一周大概只要1200美元,可能比住宾馆便宜很多,如果是全家一起出游,更为划算。And they are not just for holidays. Parents use RVs to haul children to matches. American football fans and NASCAR supporters use them for ;tailgating;, pre-game parties held in stadium car parks. Still, surveys show that ;seeing America; is one of the most important reasons for buying one. The National Parks Service has seen a slight jump in RV campers at its sites over the year to June. Just beware getting stuck behind one on a picturesque mountain road.休闲车不仅适用于假期,平时也一样。家长可以开着休闲车带孩子们去看比赛。橄榄球球迷和全美赛车协会的粉丝可以开车追逐每一场比赛,还可以在体育馆停车场开上几场赛前派对。但仍有调查表明,购买休闲车最重要的理由之一还是;走遍全美;。截至今年6月,在各大国家公园,休闲车野营者的接待数量有小幅度上涨。只用提防被房车堵在风景如画的山路之中就够了。 /201208/195606

This 1977 file photo shows Apple co-founder Steve Jobs as he introduces the new Apple II in Cupertino, Calif. 苹果公司创始人史蒂夫乔布斯在旧金山的库比蒂诺(苹果电脑的全球总公司所在地)介绍新研发的苹果II 型机,1977,旧金山 In this April 24, 1984, file photo, from left, Steve Jobs, chairman of Apple Computers, John Sculley, president and CEO, and Steve Wozniak, co-founder of Apple, unveil the new Apple IIc computer in San Francisco 照片左起分别是苹果董事长史蒂夫乔布斯,总裁兼CEO约翰斯卡利,创始人之一的斯蒂夫沃兹尼亚克,他们正在推出新款苹果II c型机,1984年4月24日,旧金山 In this Jan. 24, 1984, file photo, Steve Jobs, chairman of the board of Apple Computer, leans on the new "Macintosh" personal computer following a shareholder's meeting in Cupertino, Calif 乔布斯靠在一台“麦金托什”个人电脑上在股东大会谈笑风生,1984年1月,旧金山,库比蒂诺 In this Sept. 18, 1990, file photo, Steve Jobs, president and CEO of NeXT Computer Inc., shows off his company's new NeXTstation after an introduction to the public in San Francisco NeXT 电脑公司总裁兼CEO史蒂夫乔布斯在向公众展示他的新一代NeXT 工作站(此时乔布斯已经离开苹果创办了皮克斯动画和NeXT 电脑公司),1990年9月18日,旧金山 In this Jan. 7, 1997, file photo, Steve Jobs, chief executive of Pixar, speaks at the MacWorld trade show in San Francisco. 皮克斯动画公司CEO乔布斯(此时乔布斯已重返苹果公司)在苹果展销会上作演讲,1997年,1月7日 In this May 6, 1998, file photo, Steve Jobs of Apple Computers unveils the the new iMac computer in Cupertino, Calif 苹果推出了新一代iMac 电脑,1998年5月6日,旧金山 In this Jan. 6, 2004 file photo, Apple CEO Steve Jobs displays the at the Macworld Conference and Expo in San Francisco. Jobs, 乔布斯在苹果览会上展示iPod mini ,2004年1月6日,旧金山 Apple Inc.'s Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs is shown in this combination photo of file photographs dating (top row L to R) July 2000, November 2003, September 2005, (bottom L to R) September 2006, January 2007 and September 2008. Jobs will take a medical leave of absence until the end of June because his health problems are "more complex" than he had thought, shocking investors and sending the company's shares down as much as 10 percent on January 14, 2009. /201110/156061

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