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2019年08月22日 17:58:22来源:京东爱问

To the casual observer, it’s easy to doubt that China and Russia would have ever struck a natural gas supply and purchase deal during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Shanghai last month. After all, countless summits between Chinese and Russian leaders have come and gone with no final agreement signed for the long-discussed plans to ship more Russian gas to China. However, Putin and Xi finally ended an energy courtship, agreeing to a 0 billion deal for the delivery of 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China starting in 2018.中俄天然气交易已经酝酿数年之久,如今终于达成协议。包括这笔交易在内,中俄近十几年年来在能源领域的一系列合作表明,双方弈的主动权已经逐渐从俄罗斯转移到了中国手中。Long before the Chinese and Russian leaders on May 21 toasted their supply contract, the two countries had viewed each other as attractive natural gas partners. Russia regarded tapping into the Chinese market as essential to its plans to diversify its exports away from Europe, where natural gas demand is projected to grow at a substantially slower pace than in China. Meanwhile, the surge in China’s natural gas demand in recent years made the Chinese eye their northern neighbor, the world’s largest natural gas exporter, as an important source of supply to fill the gap between China’s domestic natural gas production and consumption.上个月,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔o普京与中国国家主席习近平在上海会面时,外行的观察者们可能不会相信中俄两国会达成天然气供应协议。毕竟,针对俄罗斯向中国增加天然气出口的问题,两国经历了漫长的谈判,双方领导人也进行了无数次会谈,却始终没有结果。最终,普京与习近平终于敲定,000亿美元的能源合作协议。双方商定,俄罗斯从2018年开始,每年向中国输80亿立方米天然气。Developments in the months leading up to the Shanghai summit may have provided Russia and China with added incentives to get serious about a natural gas marriage. For Russia, the new imperative is the country’s increased isolation from the ed States and Europe in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the resulting Western sanctions.51日,中俄两国领导人为达成天然气供应协议举杯庆贺。事实上,两国很早便将彼此视为极具吸引力的天然气合作伙伴。俄罗斯希望摆脱天然气出口业务对欧洲的依赖,而中国市场对实现这个计划至关重要。根据预测,欧洲市场的天然气需求增长速度将远远低于中囀?而另一面,近几年,中国天然气需求激增,而中国的北方近邻作为全球最大的天然气出口国,自然被中国视为填补国内天然气产量与消费量差距的重要供应来源。Europe’s renewed interest in finding alternatives to natural gas supplies from Russia, and the calls by U.S. policymakers and pundits for Washington to expedite the process for granting LNG export licenses and lift the virtual ban on crude oil exports to help wean Europe off Russian energy, undoubtedly made signing a gas pact with China even more appealing to Moscow.而近几个月,促使两国举行上海峰会的局势变化,也为中俄认真考虑天然气合作提供了更多诱因。在俄罗斯方面,吞并克里米亚地区和由此导致的西方国家制裁使俄罗斯遭到美国和欧洲的进一步孤立,因此,与中国的合作势在必行。For China, the country’s poor air quality and it’s “war on pollutiondeclared by Premier Li Keqiang in March likely increased the desirability of Russian natural gas. Indeed, the Chinese government’s announcement in April that the country aims to more than double the country’s natural gas consumption from 170 bcm in 2013 to 400-420 bcm in 2020 means China now needs Russian gas more than ever.欧洲重新开始寻找新的天然气供应以取代俄罗斯,而美国决策者和华盛顿权威人士呼吁加快授予液化天然气出口许可的进程以及取消原油出口禁令,以帮助欧洲摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖,这无疑使得莫斯科方面更加迫切与中国签署一份天然气协定。The major obstacle that Russia and China encountered on past attempts to make it to the altar was price. Russia did not want to sell gas to China at a price lower than it commanded in Europe, its largest customer. Meanwhile, China did not want to buy gas at a higher price than it paid Turkmenistan, its largest supplier of natural gas.在中国方面,糟糕的空气质量以及今年三月份李克强总理“向污染宣战”的决心使得俄罗斯的天然气更具吸引力。实际上,中国政府今年四月份宣布,到2020年,全国天然气消费量将增长两倍以上,013年的1,700亿立方米增加,000 4,200亿立方米。这就意味着,中国现在更需要俄罗斯的天然气。Although the Russians and the Chinese have come to a meeting of the minds on price, they are treating it as a commercial secret. Consequently, there has been much speculation by outside analysts about the price implied by the 0 billion contract and what it says about which country got the better deal. A back-of-the-envelope calculation yields an implied price of 0 per thousand cubic meters, which is close to what the Chinese are understood to have paid for gas from Turkmenistan last year. This estimate fits with the consensus among many outside observers in the lead up to the summit that Chinese had the upper hand due to Russia’s strained relations with the U.S. and Europe and the number of natural gas producers eager to supply the Chinese market.过去,中俄无法达成天然气协议的主要障碍在于价格。俄罗斯不希望价格低于自己向最大的客户欧洲出口天然气的价格。而中国却不希望价格高于自己从最大天然气供应国土库曼斯坦进口天然气的价格。That said, we do not know the pricing formula, the base number to be plugged into that formula or how a variety of other issues on the negotiating table such as the apparent lack of upstream access in Russia for the Chinese, a rumored prepayment from the Chinese to the Russians, a Russian proposal to exempt gas sent to China from a mineral extraction tax, a Chinese proposal to exempt Russian supplies from an LNG import tax, and expectations about the pace of natural gas price reform in China influenced both countries decisions about price.中俄两国最终就价格问题达成了共识,但双方都把这个价格看成商业机密。因此,对于4,000亿美元合同中隐含的价格以及合同的受益方,外界分析师有大量的猜测。通过大致计算得出的隐含价格是每千立方50美元,基本接近去年中国从土库曼斯坦进口天然气的价格。这个估算结果也符合许多外部观察家在两国领导人峰会之前的一致意见,即由于俄罗斯与美国和欧洲的紧张关系,而且希望向中国市场供应天然气的国家大有人在,因此,中国在谈判中掌握了主动权。It is also important to note that this is not a marriage among equals. The natural gas supply agreement is the third time in the past decade that the Russians have brokered a multi-billion dollar energy deal with the Chinese in a time of need. In 2005, the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China were lenders of last resort to Rosneft, providing the Russian national oil company with a billion oil-backed loan to help fund the purchase of the main production asset of a private Russian oil company, Yukos.另外需要注意的一点是,中俄两国在这笔交易中并不是处在平等的地位上。过去十年间,包括此次天然气供应协议在内,俄罗斯曾经三次在有需要的时候与中国达成数十亿美元的能源交易005年,中国国家开发(China Development Bank)与中国进出口(Export-Import Bank of China)成为俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)的最后贷款人,为这家俄罗斯国有石油公司提0亿美元以石油为抵押的贷款,帮助它收购俄罗斯私有石油公司尤科斯(Yukos)的主要生产资产。Four years later, the China Development Bank extended oil-backed loans worth billion to Rosneft and Transneft, the state-owned pipeline operator, when oil prices collapsed and credit crunch during the global financial crisis left both Russian companies in a world of hurt. These deals have not only deepened bilateral energy relations, but also underscored a shift in power in the relationship away from Russia and toward China.四年后,中国国家开发向俄罗斯石油公司和俄罗斯国有管道运营商俄罗斯石油运输公司(Transneft)提供了250亿美元以石油为抵押的贷款。当时正值全球金融危机,石油价格暴跌,信贷紧缩,这两家俄罗斯公司都陷入困境。这几笔交易不仅加深了两国的能源关系,同时也意味着在这种关系中,主动权正在从俄罗斯向中国转移。Regardless of which country may have conceded more, both countries can present themselves as winners to domestic and international audiences. The gas deal signifies that the China-Russia energy relationship is starting to live up to its full potential. Russia, which was China’s fourth largest crude oil supplier in 2013, is poised to become a major source of natural gas imports for its southern neighbor. This arrangement should provide Russia with greater security of demand and China with greater security of supply in the long-term. In the short-term, the main benefits of the gas agreement are political. Russia can claim a powerful friend in China, and China can point to another indicator of its growing economic and political clout on the world stage.不论到底哪一方做出了更多让步,在国内和国际舞台上,中国两国都把自己描绘成获胜者。这次的天然气交易预示着中俄两国的能源关系开始充分发挥潜力013年,俄罗斯是中国第四大原油供应国,未来将成为它南方邻邦重要的天然气进口来源。从长期来看,这份协议将分别给俄罗斯和中国带来更可靠的供应与需求保障。而从短期而言,天然气协议的主要好处表现在政治方面。俄罗斯可以获得中国这个强有力的盟友,而中国也获得了又一次机会,彰显出它在世界舞台日益扩大的经济与政治影响力。Erica Downs is a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings Institution. She focuses on the international expansion of Chinese companies and China’s energy and foreign policies as well as government-business relations in China, and was previously was an energy analyst at the CIA.本文作者邓丽嘉是布鲁金斯学会约翰oLo桑顿中国研究中心研究员。她一直致力于研究中国公司的海外扩张、中国的能源和外交政策以及中国政府与企业的关系,之前曾在美国中央情报局担任能源分析师 /201406/307770。

  • To whom will monuments be built a century from now? Among them, perhaps, will be Lee Kuan Yew. He will be remembered not only as the first prime minister of Singapore, but also as the creator of authoritarian capitalism, an ideology set to shape the next century much as democracy shaped the last.百年之后,人们会为谁树起纪念碑?在这许多座丰碑之中,或许有一座会属于李光耀。人们铭记他,将不仅因为他是新加坡第一任总理,还因为他创造了威权资本主义——这一思想将决定下一世纪的面貌,就像民主决定上一世纪的面貌那样。It was, after all, to Singapore that Deng Xiaoping came before enacting his far-reaching economic reforms in China. Until then, capitalism and democracy had seemed inextricably linked. Now the link is broken.毕竟,在中国实施影响深远的经济改革之前,邓小平访问的是新加坡。在那之前,资本主义和民主仿佛有着千丝万缕的联系。如今,这种联系已荡然无存。It is often said that the west has failed in its attempt to export its civilisation to the rest of the world. That is only part right. No one dreams any longer of a global liberal democracy that marks the end of history. But economic models have proved more portable than political ideas, and capitalism has triumphed. Poor countries that endorsed it are growing at spectacular rates.人们常说,西方没能实现向世界其他地方输出自己的文明。这句话只说对了一部分。已不再有人梦想代表历史终结(end of history,福山的“历史终结论”——译者注)的自由民主制度在全球取得胜利。现实已明经济模式比政治理念更容易推广,资本主义也取得了胜利。接受了资本主义的贫穷国家正在以惊人的速度增长。Market-based economics has no problem accommodating local religions, cultures or traditions. It is easily reconciled with the primacy of an authoritarian state. No longer wedded to western cultural values, it is arguably divorced from them; critically reinterpreted, many of the ideas that westerners hold dear egalitarianism, fundamental rights, a generous and universal welfare-state can be deployed as weapons against capitalism.市场经济适应起当地宗教、文化或传统来毫无问题。它很容易地实现了与威权国家和谐共处。市场经济与西方文化价值观不再是一对儿,两者可以说已经分道扬镳。以批判的眼光重新解读,西方人所珍视的许多理念,比如平等主义、基本权利、慷慨且普惠的的福利国家,都可以被用作反对资本主义的武器。It is not that free enterprise automatically pushes its people towards the single-minded pursuit of hedonic pleasure. Consider India, a country that has single-mindedly followed the capitalist path. Yet there has been no universal rejection there of traditional social structures. People give preference to community ties over individual achievement. Respect for one’s elders remains a powerful check on the autonomy of the young.这并不是说自由事业必然促使人们一心追求享乐。想想印度吧,这个国家一心一意地走着资本主义道路。但印度迄今未出现对传统社会结构的普遍排斥。相比个人成就,印度人更看重社会关系。尊重长辈仍有力地制约着年轻人的自由思想。Some see in the persistence of these traditions a form of resistance against global capitalism. They are wrong. Fidelity to such values is, paradoxically, the reason why the harsh logic of capitalism has been embraced even more radically in countries such as China, Singapore and India than it has in the west.有些人认为,这些传统的继续存在是反抗全球资本主义的一种形式。他们错了。吊诡的是,正是因为忠实于传统价值观,中囀?新加坡和印度等国家才更彻底地接受了资本主义的残酷逻辑。The market is a ruthless place where people sustain grievous injuries. It is hard to reconcile yourself to this, if all you are offered in return is the opportunity to satisfy your whims. It is far easier if you can fall back on traditional values to justify your indifference to other people’s fate in ethical terms. “I did it for my parents.“I did it so my cousins will be able to study.Such rationales are far more palatable than “I did it for myself市场是个无情的地方,在这里人们要忍受严重的伤害。如果所能得到的全部回报,不过是有机会满足你的任性想法,那么你很难说自己。如果你能用传统价值观来明,你对他人命运的冷漠在道德上是站得住脚的,那么你心里会好过得多。“我这么做是为了父母。”“我这么做是为了让兄弟能上学。”这样的理由远比“我这么做是为了我自己”容易接受。It is no accident that freedom is a weak foundation for capitalism in the west, for it is also a hollow one. Liberty survives there, but in a strangely twisted form. Since free choice has been elevated into a supreme value, social control can no longer appear as infringing on it. Often, however, the accommodation is merely rhetorical.西方资本主义以自由为基础是不牢固的,这并不令人意外,因为这自由也是空洞的。西方虽有自由,却是一种奇怪的、扭曲的自由。由于自由选择已经被抬高成一种至高无上的价值观,社会控制再也不能显示出在侵犯自由。然而,这种对自由的容忍往往仅是口头上的。When the hope of long-term employment is taken away, it is sold as a “flexiblelabour market, one that offers the perpetual opportunity to reinvent ourselves. When state provision for retirement is taken away, it is to give us the freedom to plan our old age. We are constantly forced to make “freechoices decisions we must make alone, though we do not know enough to make them wisely. If this is freedom, it is a burden.长期雇佣的希望被拿走,被包装为“灵活的”劳动力市场,这个市场为我们提供永久的自我重塑机会。国家的养老保障被拿走,被说成给了我们自己规划老年生活的“自由”。我们不断被迫作出“自由”的选择,即我们必须自己做出的选择,尽管我们缺乏做出明智选择所需的知识。如果这就是自由,那么它是个负担。Many westerners sense there is something defective about this freedom. We sense it most when we witness the choices of people who are not free, yet who take control of their futures in ways that we cannot. What was fascinating about the protesters in Maidan Square who demanded a new political order for Ukraine was not that they stood up for the mirage of the European way of life. It was simply that they stood up.许多西方人都感觉到这种自由存在某些缺陷。尤其当我们看到,那些并没有自由、却能以我们做不到的方式掌控自己未来的人,做出了怎样的选择。乌克兰独立广场(Maidan square)上的示威者要求乌克兰有新的政治秩序,他们的吸引人之处并不在于他们为过上幻想中的欧式生活站起来反抗,而仅在于反抗本身。They acted. They made things change. They were not free, and yet they had powers of agency that westerners, for all their freedom, lack.他们采取了行动。他们改变了局面。他们不自由,然而他们的行动力是西方人所缺乏的,尽管后者拥有一切自由。来 /201502/360149。
  • The Republican presidential campaign entered a new week with some memorable moments. Frontrunner Donald Trump revealed his tax plan on Monday in New York while rival Carly Fiorina barely escaped a falling curtain wall at an event in San Antonio.美国共和党总统竞选活动进入新的一周,出现了一些难忘时刻。领先者川普星期一在纽约公布了他的税务计划,而对手卡莉·费奥丽娜在圣·安东尼奥一次活动中,险些被倒塌的大幕砸到。Trump promised to cut income taxes for middle-class as well as wealthy Americans, while eliminating them altogether for people making less than ,000 a year. He also said he would slash corporate taxes by half and reduce taxes for businesses, both to help create new jobs. He said he would eliminate exemptions and close tax loopholes for the rich.川普承诺为中产阶级和美国富人减税,对年收入不到两万五千美元的人免税。川普还表示,将把大公司税收减半,并为小企业减税,二者均可创造新就业。Trump said: ;We are lowering taxes very substantially, we are simplifying and we are getting rid of deductions that are actually obsolete.;川普表示,将取消富人的税务减免,堵塞税务漏洞。他说:“我们将切实降低税收,简化并取消那些实际上已过时的减税项目。”Trumps Republican rivals did not have comments. Senator Marco Rubio was quite emphatic about it during a radio interview. He said: ;I am not interested in the back and forth to be a member or part of his freak show.;川普的共和党对手对此没有置评。参议员卢比奥在电台采访中以强烈口气说:“我没有兴趣和他你来我往,出演或加入他的怪人秀。”Democratic Party presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton slammed Trumps proposal, saying the rich would benefit most from it. But both she and Trump have criticized the loopholes that help speculators, such as hedge funders, avoid taxes.领先的民主党总统参选人希拉釷克林顿猛烈抨击川普的主张,称富人是主要受益者。不过,克林顿和川普都批评那些有利于投机者的税务漏洞,例如,对冲基金项目和避税现象等。Trump was well received at a meeting with Christian and Jewish clergy Monday in his Trump Tower offices.川普星期一在川普大厦其本人办公室内与基督教和犹太教领袖会谈,而且反应不错。Vox Pop, Pastor, said: ;He wasnt trying to pander to us to gain our support. He was speaking to us as one of us.;牧师沃克斯·帕普说:“他没有为了赢得持而迎合我们,他同我们平等交谈。”But the polls show the billionaires Republican rivals catching up to him, with former surgeon Ben Carson only one point behind in opinion surveys.不过,民调显示,这位亿万富翁的共和党竞争对手们正在急起直追,前外科医生本·卡森在民调中只落后川普一个百分点。Republican Presidential Candidate, Ben Carson said: ;It kind of reflects what weve been seeing out on the road - just tremendous crowds but enormous enthusiasm.;共和党总统候选人本·卡森说:“这部分反应了我们在竞选途中所看到的,人山人海,热情高涨。”Former business executive Carly Fiorina had a memorable moment during her campaign Monday when she barely escaped a heavy curtain wall crashing onto the stage where she spoke.前企业高管卡莉·费奥丽娜星期一竞选时遇到惊险一刻,她在讲话时险些被一面倒向舞台的沉甸甸的大幕砸到。费奥丽娜说:“大家没有事吧?有人受伤吗?”Carly Fiorina said: ;Is everybody all right? Was anybody hurt?; Fiorina even joked that the fall could have been arranged by Trump or Clinton.费奥丽娜甚至玩笑地说,大幕压顶可能是川普或克林顿安排的。来 /201510/402457。
  • President Barack Obama has admitted that his failure to pass ;common sense gun safety laws; in the US is the greatest frustration of his presidency。奥巴马总统承认未能在美国通过“常识性安全法”,是任职期间遭受的最大挫折。In an interview with the B, Mr Obama said it was ;distressing; not to have made progress on the issue ;even in the face of repeated mass killings;.He vowed to keep trying, but the B’s editor Jon Sopel said the president did not sound very confident。接受B采访时,奥巴马表示,“尽管反复出现击事件”,但未能作出改变,因此感到“沮丧”。他发誓表示将继续尝试,但B编辑Jon Sopel表示,听起来,奥巴马并不自信。However, Mr Obama said race relations had improved during his presidency. But with just 18 months left in power, he said gun control was the area where he has been ;most frustrated and most stymied; since coming to power in .但奥巴马总统表示在任期间,种族关系得到了改善。奥巴马的任期还8个月,他表示009年当权以来,的管控是“受到阻碍”最多的一个领域;If you look at the number of Americans killed since 9/11 by terrorism, it’s less than 100. If you look at the number that have been killed by gun violence, it’s in the tens of thousands,; Mr Obama said. ;For us not to be able to resolve that issue has been something that is distressing.; 。“自9.11恐怖袭击之后,因恐怖袭击受害的美国人不00人。但有成千上万人死于暴力。”奥巴马说道。“但我们解决不了这个问题,这着实让人苦恼。”Mr Obama has pushed for stricter gun control throughout his presidency but has been unable to secure any significant changes to the laws。奥巴马任职期间一直努力实行更加严格的管控,但并没有能对相关法律作出实质性的改变。President Obama seemed very confident and very relaxed, as if he felt things were starting to go his way .After the midterm elections, Mr Obama looked as if he was walking around with a very heavy weight on his back, feeling very frustrated。之前,奥巴马总统很自信也很放松,仿佛事情开始按照他的期望发展。但中期选举之后,奥巴马肩上似乎扛起了重担,倍感失意。But since then he’s had the diplomatic deal with Cuba, the nuclear agreement with Iran, an Asian trade deal and several other successes. Suddenly, he has a spring in his step. He feels like he’s achieving quite a lot at the moment and he still has ambitions to achieve an awful lot more。但自此之后,奥巴马先后与古巴签订外交协议,与伊朗签订核计划协议,与亚洲签订贸易协议并取得其他若干成就。突然间,奥巴马的脚步轻松起来。他感觉此刻取得的成就甚多,他仍然是雄心壮志,期待取得更多成就。On race relations, Mr Obama said recent concerns around mass incarcerations were ;deserve intense attention; but insisted progress had been made。就种族关系来说,奥巴马表示与大规模囚禁相关的问题值得引起“广泛关注”,但他坚持表示已经取得了进展。Children growing up during the eight years of his presidency ;will have a different view of race relations in this country.;在奥巴马8年任期中成长起来的孩子,“会对种族关系有不同的认识。”Mr Obama was speaking to the B at the White House before departing for Kenya. Talking about how he was feeling after his recent successes, he said ;every president, every leader has strengths and weaknesses;. ;One of my strengths is I have a pretty even temperament. I don’t get too high when it’s high and I don’t get too low when it’s low,; he said。奥巴马出访肯尼亚之前在白宫接受了B的采访。谈到对最近取得的成功的看法时,奥巴马表示:“每个领导者都有优势和不足。”“我的一个优势是,我拥有平和的心态。情况好时不骄傲;情况差时不气馁。”来 /201507/387928。
  • China has achieved pollution reduction targets set five years ago with six months to spare, its environment minister said yesterday, as international leaders gathered in Paris to negotiate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.中国环保部昨日称,中国已提前半年完成年前设定的污染物减排目标。目前各国领导人正齐聚巴黎举行减少温室气体排放的谈判。However, Chen Jining, environment minister, cautioned that China needed a further 30-50 per cent cut in pollutants in order to achieve a “substantialimprovement in its damaged air, soil and water, in a report carried by the state-run Xinhua news agency.然而,据官方的新华社报道,环保部部长陈吉宁警告称,中国需要进一步减0%-50%的污染物排放,才能实现中国受损空气、土壤及水源的“明显”改善。Beginning in 2010, China pledged to cut emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and ammonia nitrogen as well as chemical oxygen demand (COD), a measure of organic pollutants in water.010年开始,中国承诺减少二氧化硫、氮氧化物、氨氮以及化学需氧量(COD,衡量水中有机污染物的指标)的排放。The goals were incorporated in its 12th five-year plan, which concludes this year, and were primarily tackled by installing emissions-control equipment on power plants, steel mills and other industrial facilities.这些减排目标被纳入了今年结束的“十二五”规划,主要通过在发电厂、炼钢厂及其他工业设施安装排放控制设备来实现。During those five years, choking air pollution has become a top source of discontent among China’s increasingly prosperous urban middle classes.在过去五年中,令人窒息的空气污染已经成为中国日益富裕的城市中产阶层的首要不满。This month the north-eastern city of Shenyang was blacked out by thick brown smog as the city’s heating boilers revved up at the same time, creating the worst recorded pollution in the country in two years. Yesterday, Beijing raised its air pollution alert to “orangefor the first time in 13 months as the concentration of tiny particulates known as PM2.5 hit 300 on a scale in which 50 is considered dangerous to health.本月,中国东北的沈阳市被棕色的浓雾笼罩,该市的供暖锅炉同时投入运行,创造了中国两年以来最为严重的污染纪录。昨天,北京发布3个月以来首次空气污染“橙色”警告,被称为PM2.5的微小颗粒浓度达00,而PM2.5达到50即被认为有害健康。Beijing has been enveloped by smog for most of November, following an unusually clear period that some attributed to a slowing economy. Mr Chen said 20m tonnes of major pollutants are still discharged every year in China.在经历了空气异常清新的一段时期(有人将其归因于经济放缓)后,11月的大部分时间里北京一直被雾霾笼罩。陈吉宁称,中国每年仍然排放2000万吨的主要污染物。China estimates that its carbon emissions will peak around 2030, as economic growth slows and the economy matures enough to shift away from heavy, pollution-intensive industry.中国估计,随着经济增长放缓、以及经济逐渐成熟到足以摆脱重工业和污染密集型产业,中国碳排放量将030年左右达到顶峰。来 /201512/413486。
  • Brazil’s real hit a nine-year low yesterday and stocks plunged as investors reacted with concern to the re-election of the country’s centre-left president Dilma Rousseff in a vote that split the country between rich and poor.巴西雷亚尔汇率昨日跌年最低,同时该国股市下挫。投资者对巴西总统迪尔#8226;罗塞Dilma Rousseff)连任做出担忧的反应,巴西富人和穷人在这场大选中立场对立。The real was trading at R.5330 against the dollar, a depreciation of 2.3 per cent, while the Ibovespa benchmark stock index was down 3.70 per cent by mid-afternoon, led by shares of state-oil company Petrobras, down 12.5 per cent.雷亚尔兑美元汇率跌至1美元.5330雷亚尔,下跌2.3%,截至午后,巴西基准股指Ibovespa下跌3.70%,巴西国家石油公Petrobras)领跌,下2.5%。“We have a serious shadow over Brazil, which is the possibility of a credit rating downgrade, so she [Ms Rousseff] needs to act very quickly,said Andre Guilherme Pereira Perfeito at Gradual Investimentos brokerage in S#227;o Paulo.圣保罗券商Gradual Investimentos的安德烈#8226;吉列尔梅#8226;佩雷#8226;佩尔费托(Andre Guilherme Pereira Perfeito)表示:“一个巨大的阴影正笼罩着巴西,那就是信贷评级可能被下调,因此她(罗塞夫)需要非常迅速地采取行动。”Ms Rousseff won Brazil’s closest and most bitterly fought election in recent memory by about 3 percentage points with nearly 52 per cent of the vote against her more business-friendly rival Aécio Neves of the opposition PSDB, largely by appealing to the country’s poor and lower middle classes.通过迎合巴西穷人和中产阶级的下层,罗塞夫以近52%的选票赢得该国近年竞争最为激烈、得票率最为接近的一次大选,比更为亲商的竞选对手、反对党巴西社会民主PSDB)的阿埃西#8226;内维Aécio Neves)高出个百分点。Investors are now bracing themselves for four more years of rule by Ms Rousseff and her centre-left WorkersParty, or PT, whose interventionist policies to control prices are seen as partly to blame for wiping 50 per cent off the value of the stock market in dollar terms since she took office in 2011 and driving the economy to its slowest average rate of growth since the early 1990s.投资者现在要准备好迎接罗塞夫及其中左翼的劳工WorkersParty)再执年。自罗塞011年上台以来,巴西股市市值(以美元计算)被抹去一半,该国经济也降至自上世0年代初以来的最低平均增速。外界认为,该党为控制物价所采取的干预政策在一定程度上导致了这些结果。Ratings agencies have indicated they will downgrade Brazil if it cannot improve growth. The economy slipped into a technical recession in the first half of the year.评级机构表示,如果巴西无法提高经济增长,他们将调降该国评级。今年上半年,巴西经济陷入技术性衰退。Ms Rousseff’s one concession to investors during the campaign was a promise to dismiss her finance minister Guido Mantega when her first term expires this year, but she has not indicated a replacement. Mr Mantega has been criticised by economists for failing to deliver on the government’s promises of economic growth.罗塞夫在大选中向投资者做出的一个让步是,承诺在她今年结束首个任期时换下巴西财政部长吉多#8226;曼特Guido Mantega),但她没有透露继任人选。经济学家们批评曼特加未能兑现政府提出的经济增长承诺。来 /201410/339278。
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