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2019年07月19日 15:55:28来源:网上知识

The crisis in Ukraine has revived memories of the cold war and sparked fears of a new one. But as vulnerable as the country looks – with Crimea annexed and Russian troops on its borders – many are equally discouraged by its economic fragility, including slow growth and a fiscal deficit exceeding 5 per cent of gross domestic product.乌克兰危机再度勾起了人们对冷战的回忆,并引发了人们对新冷战的担忧。然而,就像乌克兰看上去不堪一击(克里米亚被俄罗斯吞并,同时俄罗斯大军压境)一样,很多人对于该国的经济脆弱同样感到失望,包括增长缓慢以及财政赤字对国内生产总值(GDP)的比例高于5%。Yet Ukraine’s economic plight does not mean its economic future has to be bleak. Like Poland in 1989, it has great potential for improvement. And if it addresses its problems with the right reforms it can still release that potential as Poland did quarter of a century ago.然而,乌克兰当前的经济困境并不意味着,其经济未来肯定一片黯淡。与1989年的波兰一样,乌克兰具有经济转好的巨大潜力。如果能够借助适当的改革解决好各个问题,乌克兰仍能像25年前的波兰那样把潜力释放出来。Since the collapse of communism, huge variations in long-term growth have appeared in the former Soviet block While Poland’s gross domestic product had doubled by 2013, that of Ukraine remains below its initial level. Institutional change, or the lack of it, is a key to this divergence. Poland and most other former Soviet countries swiftly restructured state machinery to enable the growth of dynamic, politically autonomous private companies in competitive domestic markets. By contrast in Ukraine, as in Russia, crony capitalism took hold. Politically connected businesspeople can use political patronage to take over the assets of less fortunate entrepreneurs while some politicians use their power to enrich themselves.自从共产主义制度倒台以来,前苏联共和国的长期增长出现巨大差距,到2013年,波兰的GDP翻了一番,而乌克兰仍不及最初水平。体制变革(或者未进行体制变革)是导致这种差距的关键。波兰和其他多数前苏联共和国迅速改组了国家机器,使得活力十足、政治自主的私营企业在有竞争性的国内市场实现了增长。相比之下,乌克兰就像在俄罗斯那样,裙带资本主义生根发芽。有政治人脉的商人可以利用政治保护伞,夺取不那么幸运的企业家的资产,同时一些政客利用手中的权力发财致富。This limits competition, efficiency and structural change, works against small and medium enterprises, curbs investment and fosters a shadow economy. The ensuing poor economic performance and blatant unfairness lead to deep distrust of politicians, who respond by competing for popularity with fiscally disastrous policies such as fuel subsidies. These features of Ukraine’s regime grew worse under President Viktor Yanukovich, ejected last month after the protests in Kiev’s Maidan Square.这限制了竞争、效率和结构性改革,不利于中小企业,同时阻碍了投资并培育了一个影子经济。继而出现的经济表现疲弱和明目张胆的不公平,导致人们对政客的极度不信任,政客们的回应是用能源补贴等有损财政健康的政策来争夺选民的持。在总统维克多#8226;亚努科维奇(Viktor Yanukovich)的领导下,乌克兰政府的这些特点变得更为糟糕,在基辅独立广场爆发抗议后,亚努科维奇在上月遭到驱逐。However, there is no cause for condescension towards Ukrainians. The conditions they inherited from the Societ era, including high inflation and poor state structures, were tougher than those in Poland. Western economies have their own problems arising from mistaken policies. For example, the availability of easy credit led to costly boom-and-bust episodes in the US, Britain, Greece, Spain and Ireland and to delays in structural reforms in Italy and France. So it is no surprise that both problems cropped up in Ukraine, the fastest-growing country in Europe between 2002 and 2008.然而,我们没有理由在乌克兰人面前表现得高人一等。他们从前苏联时代所继承的状况(包括高通胀以及疲弱政府结构),要比波兰更为严峻。西方经济体本身有着因错误政策引发的问题。例如,宽松信贷政策导致美国、英国、希腊、西班牙和爱尔兰出现代价高昂的荣衰期,并导致意大利和法国推迟了结构性改革。因此,这两个问题突然出现在乌克兰就毫不奇怪了,2002年至2008年,乌克兰是欧洲增长最快的国家。More importantly, even though embarking on comprehensive and radical reforms immediately after the collapse of communism has proved more effective, reforms undertaken later have also worked. In the late 1990s Bulgaria rid itself of hyperinflation and recovered from financial collapse by introducing a currency board. It has since displayed impressive fiscal and monetary stability. Poland accelerated privatisation, reformed its pension system and strengthened local government in 1998-2000. A small but competent, cohesive group of reformers with a clear leadership can turn a country around given a political mandate and sufficient time.更为重要的是,尽管事实明,在共产主义倒台后立即启动全面且彻底的改革是更有效的,但以后实行的改革也起到了作用。上世纪90年代末,保加利亚引入了货币发行局制度,消除了恶性通胀并从金融危机中复苏。此后,该国展现出了不俗的财政和货币稳定局面。1998年至2000年,波兰加速了私有化进程,改革了养老金制度并增强了地方政府的实力。如果获得政治授权并假以一定时日,一个规模小但有能力和凝聚力的改革者团队,再加上清晰的领导权是能够让一个国家脱胎换骨的。The general goal of the necessary reforms is clear to many Ukrainians, regardless of which part of the country they live in: replace the existing unfair and inefficient system with the one that increases economic freedom for all; and respect the rule of law, thus generating more rapid and sustained economic growth.对于很多乌克兰人而言,不管他们生活在该国的哪个地区,必要改革的总体目标是清晰的:用一套扩大为全民经济自由的制度来取代目前不公平且低效率的制度;尊重法治,从而实现更快、更长久的经济增长。It is not intellectually difficult to suggest what form a proper package of reforms should take. It has to be broad and introduced rapidly. It should include measures that make both economic and political sense, such as deregulation to smooth the establishment of enterprises, quick auditing and, following appropriate investigation, dissolving the most corrupt parts of the state. The gas sector, a focus of high-level corruption, needs to be restructured; and the stolen assets recovered from officials. Introducing these measures would reduce resistance to the elimination of massive fuel subsidies.从学术上指出一份像样的改革计划应采取何种形式,不是一件难事。它必须覆盖范围广,而且应快速推出。它应该包括在经济上和政治上都行得通的举措,例如放松监管,为企业创立提供便利、快速审核以及在适度调查后,消除政府最腐败的部门。天然气行业(腐败最严重的焦点领域)需要接受重组;被窃取的资产应从官员手中收回。引入这些举措将减小取消巨额燃料补贴所面临的阻力。Many economists and politicians in Ukraine know what should be done. The key is the politics – and there are hopeful signs. A society that produced the Maidan movement shows an impressive capacity for self-organisation. Most Ukrainians know a huge gap has appeared in their standard of living relative to that of, say, Poland, and want it to be bridged. Many understand this requires radical reforms and that such reforms are also crucial for strengthening Ukraine’s position relative to Russia. Finally, most oligarchs do not relish the prospect of operating in a subservient position in a Ukraine dominated by Russia.乌克兰的很多经济学家和政界人士都知道应该采取什么措施。关键是政治,目前的迹象让人充满希望。一个制造了独立广场运动的社会,表现出了了不起的自我组织的能力。多数乌克兰人明白,他们的生活水平与波兰等国存在巨大差距,他们希望弥补这一差距。很多人认为,这需要彻底的改革,而且这种改革对于提高乌克兰与俄罗斯的相对地位至关重要。最后,多数寡头并不期待在一个由俄罗斯主宰的乌克兰低声下气地经商。Which brings me to the final remark. Mr Yanukovich’s downfall has increased Ukraine’s chances of rule of law and democratic reform. This is the most likely reason Vladimir Putin is trying to destabilise the country. The Russian president’s annexation of Crimea has created geopolitical risks that call for a decisive response from a united west. Such a response is also needed to discourage further attempts to destabilise the country and thus obstruct its reforms.接下来是我的结束语了。亚努科维奇的下台扩大了乌克兰实行法治和民主改革的几率。这是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)试图搅乱该国的最有可能的原因。普京吞并克里米亚之举引发了地缘政治风险,需要西方联合起来做出果断回应。要阻止俄罗斯进一步搅乱乌克兰从而阻碍其改革的企图,也需要这种回应。The writer is a former deputy prime minister of Poland and former president of the Polish central bank本文作者是波兰前副总理、波兰央行前行长 /201404/284529。

  • South Korean military divers worked into darkness Wednesday to search for close to 300 people missing after a ferry sank near the country#39;s southwest coast, in what many fear will become one of the nation#39;s worst passenger-ship disasters.为了寻找在客轮事故中失踪的近300人,韩国潜水兵周三一直工作至天黑。此前这艘客轮在韩国西南海岸附近沉没,许多人担心这起事件将成为韩国最严重的客轮事故之一。Most of those missing are 16- and 17-year-old students from a high school near Seoul who were headed for a spring vacation, officials said. Murky waters and fast currents hampered the search for people as ships and aircraft scoured the area during the day.官员们说,大部分失踪者是首尔附近一所中学16、17岁的学生,当时这些学生正在赶赴春假活动。当天船只和飞机在相关区域展开搜索,而浑浊的海水和急流却妨碍了搜救活动。As the day unfolded, a drama that played out on national television took on increasingly nightmarish proportions. Parents of the students on the trip said they were initially informed by the coast guard that all had been rescued. Later, local media reports said most of them were safe, but by evening it became clear that just 75 of the 325 students who were on board were among the rescued.随着时间的推移,国家电视台的相关报道越来越悲观。船上学生的家长们说,最初海岸警卫队告诉他们所有学生都已获救,随后地方媒体报道称多数学生安全,但到了晚上,情况才变的清楚――船上325名学生中只有75人获救。There were 462 passengers and crew on board. Four people were confirmed dead, coast guard officials said, and at least 174 were rescued.这艘客轮载有462名乘客和船员。海岸警卫队官员说,目前有四人确认死亡,至少有174人获救。The passenger ferry was traveling to the resort island of Jeju from a port near Seoul when it flipped over and sank in just two hours. The cause of the disaster wasn#39;t clear.这艘船是在从首尔附近的一个港口驶向济州岛途中发生倾覆,并在两小时内沉没。目前还不清楚事故原因。The ship sent out a distress signal around 9 a.m. local time close to the island of Jindo, off the southwest coast of the peninsula, where it capsized.当地时间上午9点前后,客轮在朝鲜半岛西南海域的珍岛附近(发生倾覆的地点)发出求救信号。Survivors spoke of a loud thumping sound and then a sudden lurch by the boat to one side. #39;Students were tumbling in all directions,#39; survivor Kim Hong-kyong, 58, told South Korea#39;s Yonhap News.幸存者说在一声巨响后,船突然向一侧倾斜。58岁的幸存者Kim Hong-kyong对韩国联合通讯社说,学生朝着各个方向摔倒。Teams of divers searched the ship in relays as concerns rose that many of the passengers and crew may have been caught in the vessel as it rolled over. Only a small part of the bow of the ship remained above the waterline.潜水队轮换对这艘船进行搜救,人们愈发担忧客轮倾覆时许多乘客和船员可能被困在船内。目前这艘客轮只有船头的一小部分还露在水面上方。In the initial rescue effort, from local TV stations showed South Korean navy forces clambering across the walls of the ship as it lay on its side, pulling passengers through hatches and windows. Helicopters lifted survivors away.当地电视台播放的画面显示,在最初的救援过程中,韩国海军在客轮一侧沉入水中时爬过船舷将乘客从舱口和窗内拽出来,并用直升机将他们救走。Other passengers emerged from the ship after it had almost fully rolled over near the waterline and scrambled onto small boats. Air escaping from the sinking ship created a huge spray.其他乘客在客轮几乎完全倾覆后出现在客轮吃水线附近,仓促爬上救生小船。客轮沉没时从船体内冒出的气体引发巨大水花。The USS Bonhomme Richard, which had been on patrol in the Yellow Sea, joined the rescue effort.在黄海巡逻的“好人理查德号”( USS Bonhomme Richard)也加入到救援中。Most of the passengers were students from Danwon High School near Seoul, traveling to Jeju for a brief vacation. Students from their level at the school take a spring excursion before the pressure of college entrance examinations takes over a year later.船上多数乘客是首尔附近檀园高中(Danwon High School)的学生,他们当时正乘船前往济州岛度假。该校这个年纪的学生通常在面临高考压力前的一年举行一次春游。#39;Other kids tripped over and hit themselves against the compartments of the cabin,#39; a 16-year-old survivor identified only by her family name, Jeong, told Yonhap.一名姓Jeong的16岁幸存者对韩国联合通讯社说,其他学生都摔倒了,撞上穿舱内的物体。Mr. Kim said he and other passengers made a rope out of curtain cloth to pull kids up from lower levels of the boat. Other kids remained behind because they were advised by the ship#39;s crew to wear life vests and wait for the right time for their rescue, he said.Kim说,他和其他乘客用窗帘做了一根绳子将下层的孩子拽上来。他说,其他孩子呆在原地,因为船员建议他们穿上救生衣,等待救援。Parents quickly gathered at the high school seeking news about the sinking. In chaotic scenes at the school auditorium, some yelled at school officials and frantically tried to make phone calls to their children.学生父母很快聚集在这所高中寻求沉船事件的有关消息。学校礼堂场面十分混乱,有人对校方人员叫嚷,并疯狂地给自己的孩子拨打电话。One woman shouted: #39;they [the teachers] should hold responsibility if anything happens to my son.#39; Another burst into tears upon hearing the news of one student#39;s death.一名女子喊道,如果儿子出什么事,他们(教师)应该负责。另一个人在听到一名学生遇难的消息后哭了起来。Kang Eun-gyung, the aunt of one of the students on the trip, said she was worried about the possibility of people being trapped inside the hull of the ship. #39;I called my nephew#39;s mobile phone time and time again but I couldn#39;t talk to him. Maybe he dropped his phone in the sea. I just hope he#39;s OK,#39; she said.一名学生的姑姑Kang Eun-gyung说,她担心人们有可能被困在船舱内。她说,她一次次拨打侄子的电话,但无法拨通,也许他的手机掉到海里了。她说,只希望他安然无恙。With details about survivors haphazard, about 200 family members took buses provided by the school to Jindo, where many of the survivors were taken. The high school became the site of a makeshift vigil as family members, school staff, journalists and other students mingled in the brightly lit hallways.由于幸存者的相关细节不明朗,大约200名船上人员家属乘坐校方提供的大巴前往珍岛,许多幸存者都已被送到那里。这所高中已成为一个临时蹲守点,灯火通明的大厅里有家属、校方人员、记者以及其他学生。On a white board in the faculty office, someone was keeping a running chronology of the traumatic day in scribbled black marker.有人在教研室的白板上用黑色记号笔潦草地写下了沉船事故当天的事件过程时间表。At 10:32 a.m., less than two hours after the ship sent out its distress signal, the handwritten note : #39;As long as the kids aren#39;t in shock, we can rescue 100% of them!#39;上午10:32,也就是在轮船发出求救信号不到两个小时之后,一条手书信息的内容是:只要孩子们不发生恐慌,他们就能100%获救。Authorities said that changes in the number of passengers and crew that had been rescued were due to repeat counting of some figures. Of the four confirmed deaths, one body was of a female crew member and one male high-school student. The others hadn#39;t been identified.韩国当局表示,乘客和船员获救人数的变化是因为有时出现了重复计数。在已确认的四名遇难者中有一名女性船员和一名高中男生。另外两名尚未辨明身份。Survivors with broken bones and other injuries were taken to nearby hospitals. Two Filipinos working on the ship were confirmed as rescued, the Philippines Foreign Ministry said.出现骨折和其他损伤的幸存者被送往附近医院。菲律宾外交部表示,两名在船上工作的菲律宾人已确认获救。The 425-kilometer route of the ferry from Incheon to Jeju is one of the most common in South Korea. The ship, a 6,825-ton vessel named Sewol--meaning #39;time and tide#39; in Korean--could carry up to 921 passengers and was operated by Chonghaejin Marine Co. The company plies the route twice a week.这艘航行在从仁川到济州425公里航线上的渡轮是韩国最普通的渡轮。这艘6,825吨级名为“岁月”号的渡轮最多可容纳921名乘客,由Chonghaejin Marine Co.公司运营。该客轮每周航行两次。The coast guard said weather conditions were clear and calm in the area where the ship sank, with visibility also good. An official at Cheonghaejin Marine said he didn#39;t think the ferry had deviated from its usual route.海岸警卫队说,客轮失事地区的天气条件良好,能见度也很高。Cheonghaejin Marine的一位管理人员说,他认为客轮并没有偏离通常的航线。Company officials said the captain of the sunken ferry, who was rescued, is a 69-year-old veteran skipper with a career of over 20 years in operating ferries. Identified only by his family name, Lee, the captain has been on the Incheon-Jeju ferry service for eight years since joining the company in 2006.公司管理人员说,失事客轮的船长69岁,是一位经验丰富的老船长,驾驶客轮超过20年。船长已获救。自2006年加入该公司以来,这位姓Lee的船长驾驶仁川和济州岛之间的渡船已经有八年时间。The sinking marks a second accident for Chonghaejin in less than a month. Another smaller ferry operated by the company collided with a small fishing boat on March 28 on its way from Incheon to the island of Baengnyong in the Yellow Sea. The firm attributed the accident to dense fog, and no casualties were reported.此次客轮失事标志着Chonghaejin在不到一个月时间出现第二起事故。3月28日,该公司另外一艘较小的渡船在从仁川驶往黄海Baengnyong岛时撞上了一艘小渔船。该公司把事故原因归于浓雾,事故中未报告有人员伤亡。The worst passenger ship incident in South Korean history was in December 1970, when a ferry carrying nearly 340 people capsized near Busan, South Korea#39;s second-largest city--killing more than 320 people. Investigators found that ferry, the Namyeong, which was traveling from Jeju, had been overloaded with cargo and passengers.韩国最严重的客轮事故发生在1970年12月,当时一艘搭乘了近340人的渡轮在韩国第二大城市釜山附近倾覆,导致超过320人死亡。调查人员发现,这艘从济州岛驶出的Namyeong号渡船货物和乘客超载。In October 1993, another ferry, the Seohae, sank in the Yellow Sea off the coast of Busan with 362 people on board--more than 100 over the ship#39;s maximum capacity. The incident left 292 people dead.1993年10月,另一艘渡船Seohae号在釜山附近的黄海海域沉没,船上搭乘了362人,比该船允许搭乘的最多人数超出了100多人。那次事故造成292人死亡。 /201404/288629。
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