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2019年10月24日 03:02:19来源:赶集乐园

  • Two of the great political parties in the west the Republicans in the US and Labour in the UK are in a state of near collapse. That, in turn, threatens the health of democracy on both sides of the Atlantic.西方两家伟大政党——美国的共和党和英国的工党——濒临崩溃,这相应威胁到大西洋两岸民主体制的健康。The crises in the Republican and Labour parties are strikingly similar. In both cases, a leader has emerged from the fringes of politics and taken the party in a different and radical direction. The emergence of Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn threaten to destroy the electoral prospects of their two parties and will sow division and ideological confusion long into the future.共和党和工党的危机惊人地相似。在两个例子里,都有一名领导人崛起于政治生态的边缘,将各自党派带向了新的激进方向。唐纳德#8226;特朗Donald Trump)和杰里米#8226;科尔Jeremy Corbyn)的崛起可能破坏两党的选举前景,将在未来很长时间内造成分歧和意识形态的混乱。Even if Mr Trump and Mr Corbyn never make it into the White House or 10 Downing Street, their ascendancy is also damaging to the wider political system. Well-functioning democracies need a credible opposition to hold the government to account. But in the UK and the US, that basic function is no longer being properly performed.即便特朗普和科尔宾永远不会问鼎白宫或唐宁0号,他们的崛起也在破坏更广泛的政治体制。运转正常的民主政体需要可靠的反对党来问责政府。但在英国和美国,这种基本功能已不再正常发挥作用。In Britain, the challenge of negotiating the UK’s exit from the EU cries out for an alert and responsible opposition. The government, led by Theresa May, has managed to acquire a reputation for competence, partly because Labour is such a shambles. Yet, although two months have elapsed since Britain voted to leave the EU, there is very little sign that the May government has any idea of how to handle the issue. Simply repeating “Brexit means Brexitis no substitute for a strategy.在英国,谈判英国退欧事宜是一个巨大的挑战,亟需一个警觉而负责任的反对党。特里萨#8226;Theresa May)领导的政府成功获得能干的名声,一定程度上是因为工党非常烂。然而,尽管英国退欧公投已经过去了两个月时间,但几乎没有迹象显示梅政府知道如何操作这件事。只是重复“退欧就是退欧”代替不了战略。A competent opposition would, by now, be all over the May government. It would highlight the infighting among the ministers who are charged with negotiating Brexit. And it would hammer the prime minister for failing to articulate her priorities on crucial issues, such as the trade-offs between immigration and access to the EU’s internal market.一个称职的反对党现在肯定早已把梅政府批得体无完肤了。它会呼吁大家关注负责谈判英国退欧事宜的部长们的内讧。它会抨击梅未能阐明她在一些关键问题上的优先度排序,比如移民与进入欧盟内部市场这两件事之间的权衡。But Mr Corbyn’s Labour party has failed to do any of this. This may be because Mr Corbyn is actually a secret supporter of Brexit. Or it may simply be incompetence. Either way, the Labour party is failing in its duty.但上述这些事情科尔宾的工党全都没有做到。这可能是因为科尔宾私底下实际上是持英国退欧的。抑或工党可能就是没有能力。无论哪一种情况,英国工党都没有尽到自己的职责。The situation in the US is more dire. Mr Trump’s idea of opposition is to seize upon any crackpot conspiracy theory circulating on the internet or on talk radio. The Trump campaign is so obsessed with painting Hillary Clinton and the Democrats as “crookedthat it has failed to highlight real problems that have festered under the Obama administration. These include the unfolding disaster in Syria and the worry that the US economy is addicted to ultra-loose monetary policies. In a well-functioning democracy these issues would be at the centre of the presidential election. As it is, they have been lost in an endless series of controversies generated by the Trump campaign.美国的情况更为糟糕。在特朗普的观念里,反对党就是要利用互联网或谈话类节目上流传的任何异想天开的阴谋论。特朗普的竞选活动一门心思描绘希拉里#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)和民主党人“不诚实的”形象,以致于它未能揭示出奥巴马政府治下一些不断恶化的真正问题。这些问题包括叙利亚正在发生的灾难以及对美国经济沉溺于超级宽松货币政策的担忧。在一个正常运转的民主体制中,这些问题将处于总统大选的核心位置。但实际上,特朗普竞选活动制造的没完没了的争议已经将这些问题淹没了。The similarities between the Corbyn and Trump phenomena are disguised by the almost comic differences between the two politicians. Mr Corbyn primly insists that he “doesn’t dopersonal abuse; Mr Trump does almost nothing else. The Labour leader is most at home in his allotment garden; Mr Trump’s natural environment is a penthouse suite. Mr Corbyn is on the far-left. Mr Trump is on the far-right. Mr Corbyn is an internationalist; Mr Trump is a nationalist.科尔宾和特朗普现象的相似之处被两位政客近乎滑稽的差异掩盖了。科尔宾一本正经地坚称,他“不会进行”人身攻击,特朗普则除了人身攻击以外几乎不做其他事。科尔宾待在自己的公共花园里最自在;而特朗普最自在的地方是顶层套房。科尔宾极左,特朗普极右;科尔宾是国际主义者,特朗普是民族主义者。But, despite these differences, the two leaders have quite a lot in common. Both are “anti-systempoliticians. Both have seized control of their parties by mobilising new groups of activists and voters. The Trump and Corbyn activists despise their partiesold-guards and often have an undercurrent of violence in their rhetoric.但是尽管存在上述差异,两位领导人却有诸多共同之处。两人都是“反体制”的政客。两人都利用新的活动人士和选民群体掌控了本党。特朗普和科尔宾活动人士都鄙视各自党内的保守派,言辞中经常隐含暴力。Mr Corbyn and Mr Trump are also noted for their sympathy towards Vladimir Putin’s Russia and their scepticism about Nato. The fringes of the Corbyn and the Trump movements also seem to be infected by anti-semitism, perhaps reflecting the traditional suspicion of the far left and the far right that “the systemis controlled by Jews.还有一点值得注意的是,科尔宾和特朗普都同情弗拉基米尔#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)治下的俄罗斯、怀疑北Nato)。科尔宾和特朗普运动的极端人士也似乎受到反犹太主义的影响,这或许反映出极左和极右派别的传统疑虑,即“体制”被犹太人控制。The similarities between the two movements suggest that traditional right-left divisions may no longer be the best way of understanding Anglo-American politics. Instead, the new politics is turning into a confrontation between establishment and anti-system parties. The same pattern can be observed in much of western Europe, with the rise of anti-system parties such as Italy’s Five-Star movement, France’s National Front, Spain’s Podemos and the Alternative for Germany. Some of these are described as far right and some as far left. The characteristic they almost all share is a claim that the system is “riggedand that ordinary people are being trampled by elites. In foreign policy, they tend to be pro-Russian.两种运动的相似之处表明,传统的左右翼分歧可能不再是理解英美政治的最佳方式。相反,新的政治生态正转变为建制派与反体制派之间的对峙。随着意大利“五星运动Five Star Movement)、法国国民阵National Front)、西班牙社会民主力量Podemos)以及德国的新选择Alternative)等反体制政党的崛起,同样的模式在许多西欧国家都可以看到。一些政党被描述为极右翼政党,还有一些被称为极左翼政党。他们几乎全都宣称政治体制“受到操纵”,普通人受到精英人士的践踏。在外交政策方面,他们往往是亲俄罗斯的。Given the disasters of the Iraq war and the financial crisis, combined with a long stagnation in living standards, it is not surprising that voters in the US and Europe are seeking more radical alternatives. But the standard-bearers of the new radicalism in the US and the UK are leaders who are sadly bereft of constructive ideas, unless you regard protectionism and the destruction of Nato as the keys to the future.鉴于伊拉克战争和金融危机造成的灾难,再加上生活水准长期停滞不前,美国和欧洲的选民寻求更激进的选择不足为奇。但令人遗憾的是,美英的新激进主义旗手都是缺乏建设性想法的领导人——除非你认为保护主义和摧毁北约是通往未来的钥匙。Instead of introducing creative new ideas, Messrs Corbyn and Trump have merely succeeded in recycling some bad old ones: state control of the economy in the case of Mr Corbyn; and America-first isolationism in the case of Mr Trump. These two individuals may never gain real power. But their rise to prominence is a sign of a real sickness in British and American democracy.科尔宾和特朗普先生没有推出新的创造性想法,而只是捡起了一些老掉牙的糟糕点子:科尔宾捡起的是国家控制经济,特朗普捡起的是美国优先的孤立主义。这两人可能永远也不会真正掌权。但他们的崛起表明英美民主体制真的出现了问题。来 /201608/462396。
  • A Dutch-led criminal investigation into the loss of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014 has said the aircraft was downed by a missile brought in from Russia and fired from territory held by Moscow-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine.由荷兰牵头的针对马来西亚航空公司(Malaysia Airlines) MH17航班2014年坠毁的刑事调查宣布,这架飞机是被从俄罗斯引进、从乌克兰东部由莫斯科持的叛军占领的领土发射的一枚导弹击落的。A team of international investigators has been gathering evidence in an attempt to identify those responsible for the act that killed all 298 people aboard the Boeing 777 en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur.国际调查团队一直在进行取工作,试图指认谁要对从阿姆斯特丹飞往吉隆坡的那架波音(Boeing) 777飞机上全98人遇难负责。The findings of the Joint Investigation Team, which includes Australian, Belgium and Malaysian prosecutors, follow the publication last year of a report by Dutch air accident investigators that concluded the jet was brought down by a missile fired by a sophisticated Russian-made Buk surface-to-air system. 包括澳大利亚、比利时和马来西亚检察官的这个联合调查组发布调查结果之前,荷兰航空事故调查机构去年发表一份报告,结论是MH17是被俄罗斯制造的山毛Buk)先进地对空导弹系统发射的一枚导弹击落的。That report did not apportion blame.那份报告没有追究是谁发射了导弹。Russia has repeatedly rejected any involvement and pointed the finger at the Ukrainian military, but has changed its version of events a number of times.俄罗斯一再否认自己有任何牵连,并把矛头指向乌克兰军方,但已多次改变其对事件经过的指称。On Monday the Russian ministry of defence released data from radars and a drone monitoring the rebel-held side of the conflict that it said established no projectiles approached the jet from the rebel side, suggesting the missile was fired from Ukrainian territory.周一,俄罗斯国防部公布了来自雷达和监视叛军地盘的无人机的数据,称数据表明没有导弹从叛军一方射向马航飞机,暗示导弹是从乌克兰政府军所控制领土发射的。Wilbert Paulissen, the Dutch chief investigator, said yesterday that the new Russian evidence did not change the JIT’s conclusion that the missile system was brought in from Russia and was fired from rebel-held territory.荷兰首席调查员威尔伯#8226;保利Wilbert Paulissen)昨日表示,俄方的新据没有改变联合调查组的结论,即导弹系统是从俄罗斯引进,并从叛军控制的领土发射的。Russia’s position on MH17 has shifted. 俄罗斯对MH17的立场几经转变。In the immediate aftermath of the incident officials in Moscow claimed the plane was shot down by a missile fired from a Ukrainian combat aircraft a theory that has been discredited and was dismissed yesterday by the Dutch-led investigation.事件过后不久,莫斯科官员们声称,该机是被一架乌克兰战机发射的一枚导弹击落的——自那以来这一理论已被明站不住脚,由荷兰牵头的调查昨日排除了这一可能。Moscow eventually admitted that it was brought down by a Russian-made Buk missile, but claimed it was an older version that was no longer in service with its armed forces but was still used by the Ukrainians.莫斯科最终承认,该机是被一枚俄制山毛榉导弹击落的,但声称那是一个比较老旧的型号,已不在俄罗斯部队役,而乌克兰军队仍在使用。Mr Paulissen produced photographs of what he said was the Buk launcher, along with various excerpts from recordings that he said proved the missile was launched from a field near the village of Pervomaiskiy, just south of the town of Snizhne, in rebel-held territory. 保利森出示了被他称为山毛榉导弹发射车的照片,还有各种录音片段,他称这些资料明导弹是从叛军控制地区斯尼日内镇(Snizhne)以南的Pervomaiskiy村附近的田里发射的。The JIT used these to produce an animated showing the route taken by the launcher. 联合调查组使用这些资料制作了一段动画视频,显示涉案发射车经过的路线。Mr Paulissen also produced evidence that he said showed the launcher came from Russia and crossed back over the border within hours of it shooting down MH17 on July 17.保利森还出示相关据称,该发射车来自俄罗斯,并在77日击落MH17后几小时内撤回俄罗斯境内。Dismissing the recent Russian evidence, he said: From the wealth and diversity of the other evidence gathered by the JIT, we have no doubt whatsoever the conclusions that we’re presenting today are accurate and that conclusion is that on 17 July [2014] flight MH17 was shot down by a Buk missile, shot from farmland in Pervomaiskiy and the system was brought in from the Russian Federation territory and then returned to the Russian Federation afterwards.他否认了俄罗斯最近提交的据的有效性,称:从联合调查组收集的大量且多个来源的其他据看,我们毫不怀疑我们今日陈述的结论是准确的,这个结论就是,20147日,MH17航班被一枚山毛榉导弹击落,这枚导弹是从Pervomaiskiy的农田发射的,导弹系统是从俄罗斯联邦的领土引进的,之后返回俄罗斯联邦。Investigators played recordings of phone conversations between two Russian speakers discussing the need to bring in a Buk-like system to help the rebels in the days ahead of the shooting down of MH17, to counter increasingly successful air strikes by the Ukrainian air force.调查人员播放了两名说俄语者在MH17被击落之前几天的电话交谈录音,他们在讨论需要引进类似山毛榉导弹的系统,以帮助叛军反制乌克兰空军日益成功的空袭。Ukraine’s foreign ministry said the evidence puts an end to all of the Russian Federation’s attempts to discredit activities of the Joint Investigation Team and conclusions by sping distorted or fabricated information.乌克兰外交部表示,这些据彻底挫败了俄罗斯联邦通过散布歪曲或伪造信息来诋毁联合调查组活动和结论的所有企图。来 /201609/468968。
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