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2019年10月19日 03:38:39 | 作者:百家问答 | 来源:新华社
We are at a moment in which the rage of uncertainties is unusually wide. We have just passed through the worst financial crisis since World War Two. It is quantitatively much larger and qualitatively different from other financial crisis. The only relevant comparisons are with the Japanese real estate bubble which burst in 1991 and from which Japan has still not recovered, and with the Great Depression of the 1930s. What differentiates this crisis from the Japanese experience is that the latter was confined to a single country, while this crisis has involved the entire world. What differentiates it from the Great Depression is that this time the financial system was not allowed to collapse but was put on artificial life support.在我们这个时期,各种不确定因素无处不在。我们刚刚度过了二战以来最严重的金融危机。危机不仅规模更大,而就其性质而言,也与其他金融危机有所不同。可与之相提并论的只有日本至今依然饱受其害的1991年房地产泡沬破灭,以及20纪30年代的美国经济大萧条。与日本的危机相比, 这次金融危机席卷了整个世界,而前者仅限于一个国家;与大萧条相比,这次危机金融系统没有崩溃,而是依赖生命保障系统来维持。In fact, the magnitude of the credit and leverage problem we have today is even greater than in the 1930s. In 1929, total credit outstanding in die ed States was 160% of GDP and it rose to 250% by 1932; in 2008 we started at 365% — and this calculation does not take into account the pervasive use of derivatives which was absent in the 1930s.实际上,我们今天所面临的信贷和杠杆问题比20世纪30年代严重的多。在1929年,美国信贷总额占国内生产总值的160%,1932 年上升至 250%;2008年则高达365%,且这一数据不包括20世纪30年代没有而现在广泛使用的金融衍生品。201409/325678Thats a systematic approach.这是一个系统的方法。Now the question, is this important?那么现在问题来了这很重要吗。Yeah, its important to understand poverty,是的,这对理解贫穷。extreme poverty and how to fight it,and how to bring girls in school.极端贫穷 以及如何与之斗争很重要以及如何让女孩子们上学。When we realize that actually its succeeding, we can understand it.当意识到这些问题实际正在改善时 我们才能理解这些问题本身。But is it important for everyone else who cares about the rich end of this scale?但是 会有人在意处于富裕一端的人吗?这很重要吗?I would say yes, extremely important,for the same reason.我想说是的 非常非常重要同样的理由。If you have a fact-based worldview of today,you might have a chance to understand whats coming next in the future.如果你对当今世界的认知是基于事实的,那么你才可能会有机会去预测将来会发生什么。Were going back to these two humps in 1975.我们回过头来看1975年的这两个峰值。Thats when I was born, and I selected the West.也就是我刚出生的时候我选择了西方国家。Thats the current EU countries and North America.也就是现在的欧盟和北美国家。Lets now see how the rest and the West compares in terms of how rich you are.我们来看看其他地区和西方国家的比较关于富裕程度。These are the people who can afford to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.这些是能够负担得起坐飞机出国度假的人。In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived outside EU and North America.1975年的时候 只有30%的人是住在欧盟和北美以外的地区。But this has changed, okay?但是情况已经变了。So first, lets look at the change up till today, 2014.首先我们来看看当今的情况 2014年。Today its 50/50.现在是一半一半。The Western domination is over, as of today.西方国家的统治在当今已经不复存在了。Thats nice. So whats going to happen next?很好那么接下去会发生什么呢?Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?你看到那个高峰了吗? 你看到它是如何变化的吗?。I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund, website.我做了一个小试验,我查看了国际货币基金组织的网站。They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita.他们对今后五年的GDP做了一个预测。So I can use that to go five years into the future,assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.所以我可以借此来推测未来5年的变化,假设各国的贫富差距保持不变。I did that, but I went even further.除此以外我还做了进一步的预测。I used those five years for the next 20 years with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen.我用未来5年的数据对未来20年做了预测同样的变化速度 就像一个实际很可能会发生的试验一样。Lets move into the future.让我们移步未来。In 2020, its 57 percent in the rest.2020年 57%来自非西方国家。In 2025, 63 percent.2025年 63%。2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market.2030年68%,到了2035年 西方国家在富裕消费者市场中的比例被赶超。These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future.这些仅仅是针对未来的GDP所作出的推测。Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers are going to live outside North America and Europe.73%的富裕消费者将居住在北美和欧洲以外的地区。So yes, I think its a good idea for a company to use this certificate to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future.所以没错 我认为公司应该用“知识书”来确保未来能作出基于事实的决策。Thank you very much.非常感谢。201501/356203Thank you so much. (Applause.) Thank you. Please have a seat. Well, thank you, everybody. And let me begin by thanking Penny Pritzker for her outstanding leadership. Weve got six Cabinet Secretaries and dozens of U.S. ambassadors here, which should tell you that SelectUSA is a major priority for this administration. Since I was here with you 17 months ago, this gathering has doubled in size. So I want to thank all 2,600 of you – elected officials and local leaders from across this country, and business leaders from around the world – thank you for making this a priority, as well.The fact is theres never been a more exciting time for us to do business together. And today, I want to talk about why America is not only the right place for you to invest, but why America is the safest, strongest, smartest place for you to invest than weve been in a long time.After the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, America is now in the midst of the longest streak of private sector job growth on record – 60 straight months; 12 million new jobs. Businesses in America have added more than 200,000 jobs each month for 12 straight months. Thats the first time thats happened in nearly 40 years.Our unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 10 percent in to 5.5 percent today. After a decade of outsourcing, were starting to bring good jobs back to America. Over the last five years, manufacturers have added jobs at a rate not seen since the 1980s. In fact, the manufacturing sector is actually growing faster than the rest of the economy. And last week, I announced nearly 0 million in new public and private investment in strengthening American manufacturing.And even though the ed States is aly home to more foreign direct investment than any other country in the world, weve worked hard to address some of the challenges that held us back for too long. Our high school graduation rate is now at an all – time high. More young people are earning their college degrees than ever before. Our energy production is booming, our energy costs are low, our leadership on climate change is restored. On the fiscal front, our deficits have shrunk by two-thirds. Our health care costs are flattening out for the first time in half a century.Over the past six years, weve worked hard to make ourselves a smarter place to invest and to do business than any other country in the world. So weve got a good story to tell. And thats one reason I created Select USA, the first-ever government-wide initiative to encourage more companies from around the world to invest and create jobs right here in the ed States. Weve got a good story to tell, but we want to make sure all of you had a chance to hear it. And the SelectUSA team wakes up every morning with one mission – bringing job – creating investment to the ed States of America. Its a kind of one-stop shop, sort of a match-making service for investment.Economic development organizations from around the country can connect with foreign investors from around the world who are interested in bringing their businesses here. Now, understand a lot of state and local leaders in this room have been working tirelessly for a long time to attract foreign investment. The idea behind SelectUSA is just to make it easier for you to do that, and easier for our international partners to find the best opportunities.201507/384572

You know, Baidu was founded at the beginning of 2000,百度成立于2000年初and quickly NASDAQ reached its historical high of 5,000.不久,纳斯达克指数创下5000点的新高I remember it was March of 2000.那是2000年的3月Then it dropped to about 1100 a little over a year later.但是,一年多时间里又跌回1100点That is a very difficult time for people对于互联网行业来说in the Internet industry.那是一段困难时期I think its much severe than what you have experienced in甚至比过去两年的经济形势the past year or two for the general economic situation.还要严峻During that time, its just the very early那段时期days of Baidus startup experience.正逢百度成立Thats why when we officially entered the recession or the由于金融危机而导致的经济衰退challenging situation caused by the financial crisis,使得公司处于困境I keep asking myself, ;What should we do?;我一直自问,我们能做些什么?What I learned during the last downturn,能从上一次经济萧条中学到什么especially in the early 2000特别是在2000年初that when the Internet bubble burst,互联网泡沫破灭的时候I guess, some of you still remember,大家可能还记得its quite an experience for many of the companies and many那是一段不平常的经历of the people who work for those Internet companies.对互联网产业影响深刻We were lucky to raise the first round of幸运的是,我们在泡沫破灭之前money before the Internet bubble burst.完成了第一轮融资But the challenge is that we really didnt但问题是have a business model at that time.那时公司没有一个商业模式We didnt have a feasible business model,或者说没有一个lets put it this way,可行的商业模式because when we started,因为公司成立初期的商业模式the business model is to provide the backend search是给门户网站公司technology to the portal companies in China.提供后台搜索技术We did that, we came up with very good我们开发了Chinese search engine technology,很好的中文搜索引擎技术and we signed up a lot of the Chinese portals并在短期内,和许多门户网站公司in a very short period of time.签了合约That includes SINA, Sohu, Netease, Yahoo!包括,新浪,搜狐,网易,雅虎中国China, and any major portal company以及其他主要的you can think of in China.门户网站公司201503/364613

Also bought my first guitar for there Music was an important part of my life And its just so relaxing to play with the guitar every day for twenty years我也在那里花25美元买了第一把吉他音乐是我人生重要的一部分二十年来每天弹弹吉他真的是太放松了Top Dog, here in Berkeley, Ive never... I have never... That inspired me and my computer design so much伯克利大学的顶好热 我从未我从来没有这家店给了我太多电脑设计的灵感because Top Dog, a hot dog then it was at a different price but now like 75 cents but its for a hot dog you dont have to figure some pennies out for tax因为顶好热 现在一般是75美分 当初不是这个价可他家的热就卖三块你也无需找零钱付税You know, you buy a 50 cents for a bun, its a dollar and fifty for a drink就是那种50美分买个面包 一块五买杯饮料Nice simple amounting, you dont have to do all these worrying about the fringe, little extra details that every accountant will tell you are the important critical parts这种算法简洁明了不用你费心想那些附加小细节那种会计认为非常重要的东西It is so simple. It is so nice for the buyer定价如此简单 对于买家来说非常便捷And I like to put that thought about simplicity into all of my designs just make them work so simple, the person doesnt have to do as much work我喜欢在我的所有设计中体现出这种简单性即使得产品使用简便 无需人们多费力doesnt have to think as much get the details out of the way Purpose of engineering courses should build devices,也无需多想不需要考虑细节问题工科类课程的目的是打造设备appliances that make our homelife a lot simpler and give us more fun and more time they save us work and they save us thinking使居家生活变得简单的家用电器给我们带来更多欢乐和时间它们让我们省力又省心and that was the goal and we did this long enough someday wed only have to work four days a week we were totally successful,这就是目标 我们为此一直在努力以后可能我们一周只需工作四天我们很成功but now it takes two people working hard stressful fulltime jobs just to own a home in Sillicon Valley但现在还需两个人努力地进行紧张的全职工作才有可能在硅谷买套房子So we didnt really... the wealth didnt come out that way to those that were doing the work所以我们还没有真正对于那些工作的人来说 财富不会轻易得到201509/397160

Bill Gates: Congratulations, Class of 2014! Melinda and I are excited to be here. It would be a thrill for anyone to be invited to speak at a Stanford Commencement – but it’s especially gratifying for us.Stanford is rapidly becoming the favorite university for members of our family. And it’s long been a favorite university for Microsoft and our foundation. Our formula has been to get the smartest, most creative people working on the most important problems. It turns out that a disproportionate number of those people are at Stanford.Right now, we have more than 30 foundation research projects underway with Stanford. When we want to learn more about the immune system to help cure the worst diseases, we work with Stanford. When we want to understand the changing landscape of higher education in the ed States so that more low-income students get college degrees, we work with Stanford.This is where genius lives.There is a flexibility of mind here – an openness to change, an eagerness for what’s new. This is where people come to discover the future and have fun doing it.Melinda Gates: Some people call you nerds – and you claim the label with pride.Bill: Well, so do we.There are so many remarkable things going on here at this campus. But if Melinda and I had to put into one word what we love most about Stanford, it’s the optimism. There’s an infectious feeling here that innovation can solve almost every problem.That’s the belief that drove me, in 1975, to leave a college in the suburbs of Boston and go on an endless leave of absence. I believed that the magic of computers and software would empower people everywhere and make the world much, much better.It’s been almost 40 years since then, and 20 years since Melinda and I were married. We are both more optimistic now than ever. But on our journey together, our optimism evolved. We’d like to tell you what we learned – and talk to you today about how your optimism and ours can do more – for more people.When Paul Allen and I started Microsoft, we wanted to bring the power of computers and software to the people – and that was the kind of rhetoric we used. One of the pioneering books in the field had a raised fist on the cover, and it was called Computer Lib. At that time, only big businesses could buy computers. We wanted to offer the same power to regular people – and democratize computing.By the 1990s, we saw how profoundly personal computers could empower people. But that success created a new dilemma: If rich kids got computers and poor kids didn’t, then technology would make inequality worse. That ran counter to our core belief: Technology should benefit everybody. So we worked to close the digital divide. I made it a priority at Microsoft, and Melinda and I made it an early priority at our foundation – donating personal computers to public libraries to make sure everyone had access.The digital divide was a focus of mine in 1997 when I took my first trip to South Africa. I went there on business, so I spent most of my time in meetings in downtown Johannesburg. I stayed in the home of one of the richest families in South Africa. It had only been three years since the election of Nelson Mandela marked the end of apartheid. When I sat down for dinner with my hosts, they used a bell to call the butler. After dinner, the men and women separated, and the men smoked cigars. I thought, “Good thing I Jane Austen, or I wouldn’t have known what was going on.”The next day I went to Soweto – the poor township southwest of Johannesburg that had been a center of the anti-apartheid movement.It was a short distance from the city into the township, but the entry was sudden, jarring, and harsh. I passed into a world completely unlike the one I came from.My visit to Soweto became an early lesson in how na#239;ve I was.Microsoft was donating computers and software to a community center there – the kind of thing we did in the ed States. But it became clear to me very quickly that this was not the ed States.I had seen statistics on poverty, but I had never really seen poverty. The people there lived in corrugated tin shacks with no electricity, no water, no toilets. Most people didn’t wear shoes; they walked barefoot along the streets. Except there were no streets – just ruts in the mud.The community center had no consistent source of power, so they had rigged up an extension cord that ran about 200 feet from the center to a diesel generator outside. Looking at the setup, I knew the minute the reporters and I left, the generator would get moved to a more urgent task, and the people who used the community center would go back to worrying about challenges that couldn’t be solved by a PC.When I gave my prepared remarks to the press, I said: “Soweto is a milestone. There are major decisions ahead about whether technology will leave the developing world behind. This is to close the gap.”As I was ing those words, I knew they were irrelevant. What I didn’t say was: “By the way, we’re not focused on the fact that half a million people on this continent are dying every year from malaria. But we’re sure as hell going to bring you computers.”Before I went to Soweto, I thought I understood the world’s problems, but I was blind to the most important ones. I was so taken aback by what I saw that I had to ask myself, “Do I still believe that innovation can solve the world’s toughest problems?”I promised myself that before I came back to Africa, I would find out more about what keeps people poor.201503/364052

Well of course, in the 20th century,glamour came to have this different meaning associated with Hollywood.当然,在20世纪,魅力开始和好莱坞联系在一起从而拥有了各种不同的含义。And this is Hedy Lamarr.这是Hedy Lamarr。Hedy Lamarr said, Anyone can look glamorous, all you have to do is sit there and look stupid.Hedy Lamarr说,只要你坐在那里装出一副傻样,任何人都可以看起来充满魅力。But in fact, with all due respect to Hedy about whom well hear more later theres a lot more to it.但是事实上,并无意冒犯Hedy Lamarr,我们接下来还会讲到她--其实还有更多的含义。There was a tremendous amount of technical achievement associated with creating this Hollywood glamour.创造这种好莱坞式魅力,暗中联系着数量庞大的科技成就。There were scores of retouchers and lighting experts and make-up experts.有大量的修图师,灯光专家和化妆专家。You can go to the museum of Hollywood history in Hollywood and see Max Factors special rooms that he painted different colors depending on the complexion of the star he was going to make up.你可以去好莱坞的物馆去领会好莱坞的历史然后看看属于Max Factor的特定工作室,这是在这里。根据他要组织的星星的组合他绘出了不同的颜色。So youve got this highly stylized portrait of something that was not entirely of this earth-it was a portrait of a star.所以你可以看到高度风格化的肖像方法它并不是完全属于这个星球--它是一颗星星的肖像。And actually, we see glamorized photos of stars all the time they call them false color.而且事实上,我们经常看到美化过的各种星星的图片也被称作假色。Glamour is a form of falsification, but falsification to achieve a particular purpose.魅力是一种伪造的形式,但是通过其要达到某种目的。It may be to illuminate the star; it may be to sell a film.或许是去装饰一个星星,或许是营销一部影片。And it involves a great deal of technique.这都牵涉到很多的科技因素。。Its not glamour is not something you dont wake up in the morning glamorous. I dont care who you are.它并不是--魅力并不是一种,你并不会早上一起来就魅力照人,这和你是谁无关。Even Nicole Kidman doesnt wake up in the morning glamorous.即使Nicole Kidman也不会一早起来就魅力十足。There is a process of idealization, glorification and dramatization,and its not just the case for people.这需要一个理想化,赞颂化,戏剧化的过程,这并不是只适用于人。Glamour doesnt have to be people.魅力并不一定要和人相关。Architectural photography Julius Schulman, who has talked about transfiguration,took this fabulous, famous picture of the Kauffman House.建筑摄影,关于转换,Julius Schulman拍摄了这张著名的,梦幻般的Kauffman House的照片。Architectural photography is extremely glamorous.建筑摄影是十分具有魅力的。It puts you into this special, special world.它是你置身于这种非常特别的世界中。This is Alex Rosss comic book art, which appears to be extremely realistic,as part of his style is he gives you a kind of realism in his comic art.这个是Alex Ross的动漫艺术,看起来非常真实,实际上营造这种真实感这也是他的艺术风格的一部分。Except that light doesnt work this way in the real world.只是在现实世界中,灯光效果却不是如此。When you stack people in rows, the ones in the background look smaller than the ones in the foreground but not in the world of glamour.人群按排列座的时候,后排的人要比前排的人看上去小一些。但是在魅力的概念中不是这样。What glamour is all about -- I took this from a blurb in the table of contents of New York magazine,还有什么和魅力相关的呢--这是我在纽约杂志的目录中的一个宣传广告中发现的,which was telling us that glamour is back glamour is all about transcending the everyday.这意味着魅力的回归魅力的宗旨就是不断进取。And I think that thats starting to get at what the core that combines all sorts of glamour is.而且我认为这已经开始和魅力的核心接近了,不管是什么形式的。This is Filippino Lippis 1543 portrait of Saint Apollonia.这是Filippino Lippi在1543年所作的圣女Apollonia的肖像。And I dont know who she is either,century equivalent of a supermodel.我也不知道她是谁,但是在15世纪,这相当于我们今日的超级名模。Its a very glamorous portrait.这是一幅非常迷人的肖像画。Why is it glamorous?为什么它迷人呢?Its glamorous, first, because she is beautiful but that does not make you glamorous,that only makes you beautiful.它之所以迷人的第一个原因是美丽,但这还不够,美丽和魅力是两码事。She is graceful, she is mysterious and she is transcendent,and those are the central qualities of glamour.她高雅,神秘的形象中透露着卓尔不凡,这些是魅力的核心元素。You dont see her eyes; theyre looking downward.你看不见她的双眼,她在向下看。Shes not looking away from you exactly, but you have to mentally imagine her world.她也没有把目光从你的身上移开,但是你却禁不住的思考她的世界。Shes encouraging you to contemplate this higher world to which she belongs, where she can be completely tranquil while holding the iron instruments of her death by torture.她在鼓励你去探索她存在于的这个更高一层的世界,远离喧嚣,手握着把她折磨致死的铁器。201412/346352

Now, I understand--I understand that we all know this has been a tough fight, but the Democratic Party is a family. And now its time to restore the ties that bind us together and to come together around the ideals we share, the values we cherish, and the country we love.如今,我明白了——我明白我们都知道这是一场艰苦的战斗,但是民主党是一个大家庭,现在是时候围绕我们共同的理想、我们抱有的价值观以及我们所爱的国家走到一起,齐心协力了。We may have started on separate journeys, but today our paths have merged. And were all heading toward the same destination, united and more y than ever to win in November and to turn our country around, because so much is at stake.我们也许来自不同的道路,但今天我们的路合并在了一起,我们朝同一个目的地进发、比以往任何时候都要团结和有准备,要在11月赢得总统竞选胜利,使我们的国家彻底不同,因为我们冒着这么大的风险。We all want economy that sustains the American dream, the opportunity to work hard and have that work rewarded, to save for college, a home and retirement, to afford that gas and those groceries, and still have a little left over at the end of the month, an economy that lifts all of our people and ensures that our prosperity is broadly distributed and shared.我们都想要一种经济,一种能够撑美国人梦想的经济,一种让我们有机会努力工作并从中得到回报,让我们在花钱上大学、买房子、交养老金、加汽油、添置生活用品之后,仍能在月末有一点剩余的钱的经济,一种能够振奋所有人的经济,并保广泛繁荣且为大家所分享的经济。We all want a health care system that is universal, high-quality and affordable-so that parents dont have to choose between care for themselves or their children or be stuck in dead-end jobs simply to keep their insurance.我们都想要一种健康医疗体系,一种普及的、高质量的、负担得起的健康医疗体系。这样,爸爸妈妈们不再需要在为自己还是孩子治病之间抉择或者为了交保险费而再陷入没有出路的工作而无法自拔。This isnt just an issue for me. It is a passion and a cause, and it is a fight I will continue until every single American is insured, no exceptions and no excuses.对于我来说,这不只是个问题,而是一种、一项事业、一场战斗,我将继续战斗,直到每一个美国人都得到保,没有例外,没有借口。 /201307/250001

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