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2018年06月18日 13:44:49来源:家庭医生解答

  • While 2016 was the year the unlikely became real, currency investors enter 2017 no better equipped to tell the difference between reality and illusion.尽管2016年是一个不太可能的事情变成现实的年份,但在进入2017年之际,外汇投资者仍无法更好区分现实与假象。Brexit and Trump made a mockery of assumptions, shredded investorsbest-laid plans and turned political risk analysts into the most in-demand advisers of the year.英国退Brexit)和特朗普是对假设的嘲弄,破坏了投资者精心设计的计划,并让政治风险分析师成了去年最抢手的顾问。The two big themes of 2016 will feel palpable during the first quarter of 2017. Donald Trump takes the oath of office to become US president on January 20. By March’s end, UK prime minister Theresa May will have sent to the EU the letter that triggers the UK’s formal divorce proceedings, and revealed some element of her negotiating hand.2017年第一季度,人们仍将明显感觉到2016年的这两大主题0日,唐纳特朗Donald Trump)将宣誓就任美国总统。到3月底,英国首相特里萨?Theresa May)将已向欧盟致信,触发英国的正式退欧程序,并显示她的谈判立场的一些元素。All the same, neither of these “facts on the groundwill bring clarity to investors, even if their market behaviour in the tail-end of 2016 suggests they hope and expect otherwise.尽管如此,这两个“既成事实”都不会让投资者拨开迷雾,即便他们在2016年底的市场行为似乎表明,他们希望并期待情况会变得明朗。A “dollar exuberancebroke out post-election, says Peter Rosenstreich of the internet-based bank, Swisse. Trump promises of fiscal policy and tax reform had the “near-magical effectsof convincing investors that monetary policy would end smoothly, global growth enhanced and corporate profits boosted.互联网瑞Swisse)的彼罗森施特赖希(Peter Rosenstreich)表示,“美元繁荣”在美国选举后出现。特朗普承诺的财政政策和税收改革承诺产生了“近乎魔力般的效果”:让投资者相信货币政策将平稳收尾,全球增长将提速,企业利润将得到提振. November 9: Donald Trump’s election victory spurs start of dollar rally11日:唐纳特朗普胜选,开启美元涨势. December 5: Supreme Court hearing into UK’s government’s Article 50 appeal adds to Brexit doubts, pushing sterling higher22日:英国最高法院开始审理英国政府就触发《里斯本条约》第50Article 50)权限提起的上诉,这加剧了外界对于英国退欧的疑虑,促使英镑汇率上涨. December 7: China’s reserves drop a further bn as central bank struggles to halt sliding value of renminbi32日:中国外汇储备进一步缩00亿美元,中国央行艰难阻止人民币贬值. December 14: Dollar rally sustained by Fed rate rise424日:美联Fed)加息维持了美元的涨势。This is giving the US consumer a false sense of wealth and wellbeing, he believes, arguing that US data merely reflect a temporary upswing in a large cyclical downturn.他认为,这给美国消费者带来了一种虚假的富有和幸福的感觉,他辩称,美国数据只是反映出一段大规模周期性低迷期间出现的暂时回升。“We remain sceptical that President Trump will accomplish anything close to the miracle growth rhetoric he has been supplying,says Mr Rosenstreich.罗森施特赖希表示:“我们仍怀疑,特朗普总统能否实现他一直夸口的近乎奇迹般的增长承诺。”The pound’s recent rally also suggests investors expect a clearer picture of Brexit to emerge early in 2017, fuelled by softer rhetoric from Mrs May and her ministers.英镑最近的上涨也似乎表明,受到梅和她手下的部长级官员们较为柔和的言论的鼓舞,投资者预计英国退欧的前景将在2017年初变得更为明朗。Yet according to Nomura’s foreign exchange strategist Jordan Rochester, Mrs May’s Brexit plan is likely to be “very vague, full of hope, but lacking in any concrete details to safeguard the government’s negotiation tactics然而,野村券(Nomura)外汇策略师策略师乔丹?罗切斯特(Jordan Rochester)表示,梅的退欧计划可能会“非常含糊,充满希望,但缺乏具体的细节来保障政府的谈判策略”。For greater certainty, investors may well revert to what they have followed more closely in recent years economic data and the utterances of central banks. This will be the case even if the limitations of monetary policy mean policymakers are supposedly passing responsibility for global growth to politicians.要想获得更大确定性,投资者很有可能回到最近几年他们更密切关注的事情上:经济数据和央行的表态。即便货币政策的局限性意味着政策制定者是时候将全球增长的责任移交给政治人士,情况仍会如此。Steven Saywell, BNP Paribas’s global head of foreign exchange strategy, says the dollar’s post-election rally of more than 11 per cent against the yen was built on Trump-fuelled expectations.法国巴黎(BNP Paribas)外汇策略全球主管斯蒂塞维Steven Saywell)表示,美元兑日元汇率在美国大选后上涨1%,这基于特朗普引发的预期。Contrast that with Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve, and her upbeat assessment of the US economy that accompanied last month’s rate rise.这与美联储主席珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)的表态以及她0162月加息后对美国经济的乐观评估形成对比。“Inflation has picked up,says Mr Saywell. “Even without Trump expectations, the dollar would be stronger.”“通胀已上扬,”塞维尔表示,“即便没有特朗普引发的预期,美元也会走强。”If the Fed is a better guide than Mr Trump for the dollar’s broad direction in 2017, what will determine the euro’s path the European Central Bank or European elections?如果说,就美元在2017年的基本走势而言,美联储是比特朗普更好的指引,那么决定欧元走势的因素会是什么?欧洲央行(ECB)还是欧洲选举?The temptation for investors is to keep a close watch on the slew of 2017 European elections for further signs of the populist traits that secured victories for the Leave campaign in the UK referendum and Mr Trump in the US.投资者也许将忍不住密切关017年欧洲的一系列选举,看有没有民粹主义情绪的更多迹象,这些情绪曾让退欧阵营在英国公投中获胜,也让特朗普赢得美国大选。Yet as Derek Halpenny at MUFG points out, largely forgotten in the attention on Brexit and Trump were the actions of the ECB last month in increasing quantitative easing purchases.然而,就像三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)的德里克?赫尔潘尼(Derek Halpenny)指出的那样,欧洲央行0162月做出的扩大量化宽松(QE)购买规模的措施,在人们对英国退欧公投和特朗普的关注中基本上被忽视了。These, he says, “brought about a revival in the divergence trade that will probably be the theme for the dollar, the euro and the yen in the first part of 2017他表示,这些措施“带来了分化交易(divergence trade)的复苏,这或许会成为美元、欧元和日元017年上半年的主旋律”。Mr Saywell agrees. “The euro hasn’t fallen as much against the dollar as the yen,he says. “A lot will come down to the policy response of central banks.”塞维尔认同这点。“欧元兑美元汇率的下跌幅度不及日元兑美元汇率,”他表示,“很多事情将取决于央行的政策回应。”The ECB, he suspects, will taper monetary policy. While BNP Paribas forecasts the yen heading for 28 against the dollar, maybe even to 35, the bank expects the euro to drop to parity with the dollar but not much further.他估计,欧洲央行将逐渐结束货币政策措施。尽管巴黎预测,日元兑美元汇率将跌向1美元28日元,甚美元35日元,但该行预测,欧元兑美元汇率将跌:1,但不会进一步大幅下跌。“As the ECB exits QE, the market will rebound,says Mr Saywell.他表示:“随着欧洲央行退出量化宽松政策,市场将反弹。”Still, the canny investor will doubtless keep up to date with all developments, political and economic, to chart the most trouble-free path through foreign exchange. As Simon Derrick at BNY Mellon says, 2017 has all the hallmarks of being a repeat of 1985 loose fiscal policy, tax cuts, a hawkish Fed and a soaring dollar.话虽如此,精明的投资者肯定会跟踪所有政治和经济事态,以求在外汇市场摸索出一条麻烦最少的道路。正如纽约梅隆银BNY Mellon)策略师西德里Simon Derrick)所言017年具备让1985年重演的所有特点:宽松财政政策、减税、美联储鹰派立场和美元汇率飙升。“It was the pressure of US corporates that was brought to bear on Congress and subsequently the Reagan White House that led to the abandonment of a strong dollar policy,says Mr Derrick.德里克表示:“美国企业的压力影响了美国国会,后来也影响了里根主政的白宫,导致美国放弃了强势美元政策。”Could there be a similar political backlash in Trump’s US? “Absolutely,Mr Derrick says.在特朗普主政时期,美国会否出现类似的政治反弹?德里克表示:“绝对会”。This is by no means the only moment in 2017 when the realities of politics and economics will affect investment choices. The other, warns Mr Derrick, is China.这绝017年唯一一个政治和经济现实将影响投资选择的时刻。德里克警告称,另一个是中国。In November, the People’s Bank of China drained its reserves by bn and has consequently been reducing its holdings of US Treasuries to prevent the renminbi depreciating further. In the background stands Mr Trump, y to repeat accusations that China has been deliberately weakening the renminbi for competitive gain.20161月,中国央行(PBoC)消耗了700亿美元外汇储备,减持了美国国债,以阻止人民币进一步贬值。特朗普则站在背景中,准备重复他的指责:中国一直在故意削弱人民币汇率,以获得竞争好处。“There is a reasonable chance China will rethink its currency policy,says Mr Derrick. “It must be galling to be spending bn and at the same time to be called a currency manipulator. How that plays out next year will be fascinating.”“中国有合理机会反思其汇率政策,”德里克表示,“花00亿美元外汇储备,同时又被称作汇率操纵国,这肯定令人难堪017年这方面的事态将如何发展,将是一件扣人心弦的事。”来 /201701/487468。
  • While Turkey says it has reached its ;capacity to absorb; refugees, Turkish aid workers are providing tents and supplies for Syrian refugees who have gathered at the border between the two countries.尽管土耳其表示其接纳难民的能力已经饱和,土耳其援助人员仍在为叙利亚难民提供帐篷和其他补给,这些难民目前滞留在土叙边界。Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus told CNN-Turk television Sunday Turkey has aly taken in 3 million refugees, the vast majority of them Syrians.土耳其副总理库尔图尔穆什星期日对美国有线电视新闻网说,土耳其已经收容00万难民,其中绝大多数是叙利亚人。Turkey has closed its Oncupinar border opposite Syrias Bab al-Samam frontier where thousands of Syrians massed Sunday for a third day waiting for the border to open. Turkish officials say up to 35,000 Syrians are waiting at the border. The Syrians are escaping a Russia-backed government offensive in the Syrian city of Aleppo.土耳其关闭了进入叙利亚的奥库皮纳尔过境点,成千上万叙利亚人星期日已是连续第3天滞留那里,等待重开边界。土耳其官员说,在边界等候的叙利亚人多达3千人。这些叙利亚人是为了逃离得到俄罗斯持的叙利亚政府军对阿勒颇的进攻。It was not immediately clear, however, what has to happen before the crossing is opened.目前还不清楚,土耳其在什么情况下才会重开边界。来 /201602/425848。
  • A website specializing in broadcasting trials of Chinese courts went public last Tuesday, the Supreme Peoples Court (SPC) said.最高人民法院日前表示,中国庭审公开网已于上周二正式开通。The website, ts.chinacourt.org, is another key step that the SPC took to build ;intelligent courts; across the country, according to a statement of the SPC.根据最高法发布的声明,ts.chinacourt.org网是最高法在全国建;智能化法;的又一项关键举措。So far, 520 courts in the country have connected with the website and will broadcast case hearings on this platform.目前,全国已20家法院实现了与中国庭审公开网的联通,并将通过该平台直播庭审。Since July 1, all courts have been asked to disclose case hearings on the internet, it said, adding that the top court has broadcasted 78 trials by the end of August.该声明指出,日起,所有法院都被要求在互联网上公开审理案件的听会。截月底,最高法已经通过网络直播案件庭审78件。The website aims to strengthen judicial transparency, help the public understand how Chinese judges hear a case and supervise courts work, as well as provide a reference for law specialists, it said.该声明称,中国庭审公开网旨在增强司法透明度,帮助公众了解我国法官如何审理案件、监督法院工作以及为法律专家提供借鉴。On the website, people can easily find live footage of case hearings they are interested in and will be informed what trials are y to open next.公众可以轻松在中国庭审公开网上找到其感兴趣的庭审直播录像,看到庭审预告。Meanwhile, they are allowed to collect the and leave messages or share opinions below live shows.同时,公众可以收藏视频并在直播视频下方留言或分享观点。It is the fourth open website set up by the top court to improve transparency.这是由最高法为提高透明度而设立的第四个开放的网站。来 /201610/469810。
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