莱芜中医医院打胎一般要花多少钱美专家

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原标题: 莱芜中医医院打胎一般要花多少钱88大全

Tens of thousands of people marched through Moscow yesterday in memory of Boris Nemtsov, the slain liberal politician, in the largest opposition demonstration the city has seen in three years.数万人昨日走上莫斯科街头游行,悼念被杀的自由派政治人物鲍里斯#8226;涅姆佐夫(Boris Nemtsov),这是三年来该市爆发的最大规模反对派示威。People carrying portraits of the charismatic opposition leader and waving Russian flags moved in a sombre procession towards the spot where he was murdered on Friday while walking home from a restaurant a stone’s throw from the Kremlin.人们举着这位富有政治魅力的反对派领袖的画像,并挥舞着俄罗斯国旗。游行者在肃穆的气氛中走向他在上周五被谋杀的现场,当时他在离开一家餐厅后,正步行回家,案发地点距离克里姆林宫很近。Gennady Gudkov, a former member of parliament and opposition activist, said: “[Nemtsov’s] death has shocked people both inside and outside the Kremlin. People realise it’s a watershed moment.”前杜马成员、反对派活动家根纳季#8226;古德科夫(Gennady Gudkov)表示:“(涅姆佐夫的)离世令克里姆林宫内外的人们感到震惊。人们意识到这是一个分水岭时刻。”President Vladimir Putin has vowed to pursue those responsible for Nemtsov’s killing, which he called a “provocation”. But government critics have blamed the Kremlin for the politician’s murder.总统弗拉基米尔#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)誓言追缉那些要对涅姆佐夫被杀负责的人,称这起事件是“挑衅”。但批评政府的人士将这起谋杀归咎于克里姆林宫。Nemtsov’s death has demoralised an anti-Kremlin opposition aly weakened by Moscow’s crackdown on dissent and the big jump in Mr Putin’s approval ratings following Russia’s annexation of Crimea last year.涅姆佐夫的离世挫伤了反对克里姆林宫的势力的士气。反对派势力本已被削弱,原因既包括莫斯科方面打压异见,也包括俄罗斯去年吞并克里米亚后普京的持率大幅跃升。Yesterday’s march came with Moscow awash with conspiracy theories about who could have killed Nemtsov, a former deputy prime minister who came to prominence in the mid-1990s as one of the so-called young reformers and had once been touted as a potential successor to Russia’s first democratically elected president, Boris Yeltsin.昨日举行游行的同时,莫斯科充斥着有关谁可能杀害涅姆佐夫的阴谋论。涅姆佐夫曾是俄罗斯副总理,他在上世纪90年代中期作为所谓的年轻改革者之一声名鹊起,一度被吹捧为俄罗斯首任民选总统鲍里斯#8226;叶利钦(Boris Yeltsin)的一名潜在继任者。While Putin critics blamed the authorities, state media, government officials and pro-Kremlin politicians portrayed the killing as an attempt to destabilise Russia and floated the idea that the west was behind it.尽管普京的批评者指责当局,但官方媒体、政府官员和亲克里姆林宫的政界人士将这起谋杀说成是企图破坏俄罗斯稳定的举动,并提出了西方是幕后黑手的构想。Organisers estimated the number of marchers yesterday had reached 50,000 — although police put it at 21,000. Florists in Moscow city centre sold out of their stock, as people bought tributes to lay on the spot on Great Moskvoretsky Bridge, close to the Kremlin, where Nemtsov was shot dead while walking with his girlfriend.组织者估计昨日游行人数达到5万,尽管警方估计有2.1万人。莫斯科市中心的花店售出了全部存货,因为人们纷纷购买花束,然后向克里姆林宫附近的莫斯科河大桥上涅姆佐夫被杀的现场献花。击发生时,涅姆佐夫正与女友一起步行。Marchers held black-framed placards with the words: “Boris, I’m not afraid,” and “They killed you, they are killing freedom.”游行者举着黑框标语牌,上面写着:“鲍里斯,我不害怕,”以及“他们杀了你,他们杀了自由。”The marchers appeared to be a broad cross section of Russian society. “I am proud that I’m here today,” said Pyotr, a 60-year-old man who would only give his first name. “I have never been to a demonstration before, except for those marches we had to attend in the Soviet Union.”游行者似乎代表着俄罗斯社会各界。“我很自豪我今天在这里,”一个只愿意说自己名叫“彼得”的60岁男子表示。“我以前从来没有参加过示威——除了我们在苏联时代不得不参加的那些游行外。”But the atmosphere differed markedly from past opposition demonstrations. There was no stage, no music and no speeches. Most people simply chatted quietly under an icy drizzle.但是,现场气氛与过去的反对派示威活动明显不同。没有舞台,没有音乐,也没有演讲。大多数人只是在冰冷的细雨中悄悄地聊着。Occasional shouts of “Russia will be free” and “Russia without Putin” rose from the crowd — slogans that had been popular during the mass anti-Putin rallies of 2011-12. But the chanting quickly died down.偶尔,人群中爆发出“俄罗斯将会自由”和“俄罗斯没有普京”的高喊——这些口号在2011-12年的大规模反普京集会中曾经流行。但这些高呼很快就沉寂下来。“I’m glad that so many people came, but I don’t think this changes anything,” said Vera Matveyeva, a 34-year-old civil rights activist.“我很高兴有这么多人来了,但我不认为这会改变任何情况,”34岁的民权活动家维拉#8226;马特维耶娃(Vera Matveyeva)说道。 /201503/361986

BUKIT BESI, Malaysia — Giant mining equipment has stripped away the palm trees and other vegetation from a jungle bluff here with a Malay name that translates to “Iron Hill.” Huge power shovels gouge long furrows down cliffs of fuchsia clay, scooping out the shiny black iron ore at their base.马来西亚龙运铁山——这本是一个丛林茂密的悬崖,马来语名字的意思是“铁山”,巨型矿山设备已经清除了这里的棕榈树和其他植物。巨大的挖土机挖开了紫红色粘土构成的悬崖,从底下掏出亮黑色的铁矿石。The mine here operates round the clock, seven days a week. The Chinese-controlled CAA Resources, which reopened the dormant mine early this year, has rapidly ramped up production to an annual rate of 500,000 tons, with plans to double it by next year.这座铁矿每周七天、每天24小时地运转。中资企业CAA资源公司(CAA Resources)今年年初重新启动了这座“休眠”的铁矿,迅速提高产量至每年50万吨,并计划明年再增加一倍。Its ambitions, though, are being undermined by the shifting global terrain: Iron ore sells for less and less these days.不过全球形势的变化,不利于这个雄心勃勃的计划:如今铁矿石的售价正在节节走低。“China still needs a lot of steel for infrastructure, housing projects and rails,” Li Yang, CAA’s chairman and chief executive, yelled as ore-processing machinery clanked noisily nearby. “The only problem is the pricing.”“中国的基础设施、住房和轨道修建仍然需要大量钢材,”CAA公司董事长兼首席执行官李阳大声喊道,矿石加工机械在他附近处轰隆作响。“唯一的问题就是价格。”With seemingly insatiable demand from China, the price of iron ore, along with many other commodities, soared for most of the past decade. China manufactures half the world’s steel, which is made from iron and used for housing construction, rail lines, carmaking and more.中国的需求似乎永无止境,铁矿石以及许多其他大宗商品的价格,也在过去近十年的时间里大幅飙升。中国的钢产量占全球的一半;而钢材由铁制成,用于房屋建筑、铁路、汽车制造业等。The boom helped support the rapid growth of companies like CAA, as well as the economies of developing countries rich with resources. From Indonesia and Australia to Peru and Brazil, multinationals and Chinese companies embarked on large-scale, long-term investments in mines.在这种旺盛需求的推助下,像CAA这样的公司快速发展起来,资源丰富的发展中国家也实现了快速经济增长。从印度尼西亚、澳大利亚到秘鲁、巴西,跨国公司和中资企业对矿场进行了大规模的长期投资。But the dynamics have changed — and the current downturn may reflect a new reality. China’s economy, once growing in the double digits, has slowed to around 7 percent, with industrial output dropping even more dramatically. Many commodity companies, though, have ramped up production to meet that earlier pace of demand.但形势已经扭转——目前的经济低迷可能体现了一个新的现实。中国经济在经历两位数的增长后,已放缓至7%左右,工业产出下降的幅度甚至更大。但是很多大宗商品公司为了满足早期的旺盛需求,已经提升了产能。The result is a double blow to natural resources companies and emerging markets, with few sectors hurt more than iron ore. Prices are down 48 percent since the start of the year, to a metric ton, a five-year low.因此自然资源公司和新兴市场双双遭到打击,受到冲击最大的当属铁矿石行业。开年以来,铁矿石的价格已经下挫了48%,降至70美元一吨,为五年新低。Even in the face of falling prices, producers show no signs of easing off, with low-cost industry giants leading the charge.即便价格低迷,生产商仍未显示出生产放缓的迹象,低成本运行的行业大鳄正在带头扩产。Vale of Brazil said in August that it wants to double shipments to China in five years. BHP Billiton of Australia announced plans the same month to invest billion in mine expansion projects. Rio Tinto, a company based in London with extensive operations in Australia, is in the process of bolstering production 13 percent by next year and another 8 percent by 2017.巴西淡水河谷(Vale)今年8月份表示,它希望在五年内把对华出货量增加一倍。澳大利亚必和必拓(BHP Billiton)同月也宣布,将投资20亿美元扩建矿山。总部设在伦敦的力拓(Rio Tinto)在澳大利亚开展着大量业务,该公司计划明年扩产13%,2017年再扩产8%。Chinese companies, too, have been relentlessly expanding overseas. In Malaysia, the number of iron ore mines in operation has increased more than sevenfold since 2007, mainly from Chinese investment.中国公司也在不懈地拓展海外市场。自2007年以来,在马来西亚运营的铁矿数量增长了逾七倍,投资方主要来自中国。As iron ore demand has fallen, mines like the one here in Bukit Besi have kept running partly by digging deep into the most iron-rich part of their seams, instead of developing them more evenly, mining the poor-quality ore with the good. That has kept a torrent of iron ore entering the market even as prices have plummeted.由于铁矿石的需求有所下降,龙运铁山等铁矿保持运转的方法之一是深入挖掘含铁量最丰富的部分矿藏,而不是比较均匀地开发它们,劣质矿和优质矿一起挖掘。因此即使价格暴跌,还是有大量铁矿石进入市场。“They exacerbate the problem by everyone doing the most profitable part,” said Bruce Diesen, a commodities specialist at Carnegie ASA, an Oslo-based asset management company.“他们加剧了问题的严重性,导致每家公司都做最赚钱的部分,”布鲁斯·迪森(Bruce Diesen)表示,他是位于奥斯陆的资产管理公司卡内基ASA(Carnegie ASA)的分析师。CAA Resources has been at the center of the push here, reopening Malaysia’s most famous mine. Discovered in the jungles of eastern Peninsular Malaysia in 1916 by a Japanese geologist, Bukit Besi became one of the world’s largest mines as it supplied the Japanese steel industry through World War II.CAA是这种情况的主要推动者,它重新开启了马来西亚最著名的矿山。龙运铁山是一名日本地质学家1916年在马来西亚半岛东部的丛林中发现的,曾经是世界上最大的矿山之一,二战期间曾为日本钢铁业提供原材料。The British seized the mine as war spoils after Japan’s surrender and handed it over to a British company. The British mining company initially struggled with Communist insurgency attacks on its rail lines, including bombings that destroyed three train stations, but nonetheless became a big supplier of ore for Japan’s postwar industrial revival.日本投降后,这座矿山作为战利品,移交给了一家英国公司。最初一段时间,矿山的铁路线遭到共产党武装分子的袭击,3座火车站被炸毁,令英国矿业公司头痛不已,但该矿仍然成为了日本战后工业复兴的重要供应商。Then, in 1971, the mine closed because of what a historic marker here describes as bureaucracy and labor union troubles. The site sat idle for most of the next four decades.该矿于1971年关闭,当地的一处历史纪念碑称,关闭原因是官僚主义和工会问题。过去四十年中,该矿大多数时候都处于闲置状态。Learning from the mistakes of his predecessors, Mr. Li, the 27-year-old CAA chief and scion of a Chinese family that had grown wealthy in the mainland iron ore industry, immediately worked to build ties with local and national political leaders, as well as with Malaysian royalty.CAA的首席执行官李阳现年27岁,出身于富裕的中国铁矿家族。他从前任经营者的错误中吸取教训,加紧与当地和该国政治领导人,以及马来西亚皇室培养关系。“If you’ve got these two to support you, then you can do anything you want, because the natural resources are all controlled by them,” Mr. Li said.“有了这两方面的持,你可以做成任何想做的事情,因为自然资源都在他们的掌控之中,”李阳说。Mr. Li, who owns 56 percent of CAA, said that he had paid for each of the ruling party politicians with indirect stakes in the mine to receive the royally granted title of “dato,” which roughly translates as “the honorable.” It costs about 0,000 to arrange each royal grant, he said.持有CAA公司56%股份的李阳表示,为了获得王室授予的头衔“拿督”(dato)——可大致理解为“地位尊崇者”——他给执政党的每位政治人士都提供了铁矿的间接股份。他说,安排每次王室封衔,都要花费大约10万美元。Although anti-corruption groups have campaigned against such arrangements, particularly indirect stakes, Mr. Li said he was simply following common practices in Malaysia. A government-linked industry group in Beijing announced plans on Oct. 24 to introduce standards for Chinese companies in areas like labor rights, environmental protection and community relations.虽然反腐败组织对此类做法,尤其是提供间接股份的做法表示反对,但是李阳说,这样做只是遵循马来西亚的惯例。10月24日,北京一个与政府有关的行业协会宣布了一套指导原则,就劳工权益、环境保护和社区关系等问题为在海外运营的中国公司设定了规范。To avoid potential labor issues, Mr. Li has largely imported workers, who are not unionized. CAA Resources brought in about 40 mining engineers, accountants and other professionals from China, and filled the rest of its work force with laborers from low-wage countries like Cambodia, Myanmar and Vietnam. The workers are on 12-hour shifts, up to seven days a week, and are paid based mostly on how much iron ore each shift can produce, Mr. Li said.为了避免劳工纠纷,李阳主要从国外招工,而且这些工人并未形成组织。CAA从中国带来了约40名采矿工程师、会计和其他专业人士,其他工作人员则是来自柬埔寨、缅甸和越南等低收入国家的工人。李阳说,这些工人会进行轮替,每个班次12小时,每周工作7天,他们的工资基本按照每班能开采多少铁矿石来决定。Pacing across the jungle mine, Mr. Li described his recruitment pitch to potential hires. “You can save a lot of money, there is nothing to do here,” he said, “I say, ‘Each of you will be a hero, you will take back 100 percent of your savings, your wife will be happier, your children will be happier.#39; ”李阳一边在丛林密布的矿区漫步,一边讲述了他招人时针对潜在雇员的说辞。“你可以省下很多钱,这里没有别的事可做,”他说,“我告诉他们,‘你们每个人都会成为英雄,你可以把百分之百的积蓄拿回去,你的妻子会更高兴,你的孩子也会更幸福。’”He has avoided filing an environmental-impact statement by erecting an eight-foot-high, blue corrugated-steel fence across the middle of the site with a gate, and calling it two mines, each less than 500 acres. Only mines over 500 acres require environmental approval.他在矿区中间立起了一道高8英尺(约合2.5米)的蓝色瓦楞钢制围墙,还给它安了一扇门,然后说这是两个矿,每个矿的面积都不到500英亩(约合200公顷)。通过这样做,他成功避免了提交一份环境影响声明。只有面积超过500英亩的矿才需要环境方面的许可。Now, CAA’s biggest challenges are from outside forces.如今,CAA最大的挑战来自外部力量。For one, Bukit Besi’s ore is less rich in iron than what rivals produce in Australia or Brazil, although better than most Chinese ore. Less concentrated iron ore needs to go through a costly extra step, known as beneficiation, before it can be sold. That eats into CAA’s profit.首先,尽管龙运铁山矿石的含铁量比大多数中国矿石要高,但它还是比不上竞争对手在澳大利亚或巴西开采的铁矿。含铁量较低的铁矿在出售前,还要经历一个被称为“选矿”的步骤,这个步骤花费很高。CAA的利润也因此受损。Transportation, too, is a costly proposition. Australian and Brazilian iron ore mines are connected by rail lines to deepwater ports that can handle some of the world’s largest bulk freighters. That limits their shipping costs to China at around a ton. By contrast, it costs a ton to ship Malaysian iron ore to China because Malaysian ports are shallower — although a deeper port is scheduled to open by the end of next year.运输也是一个花费高昂的过程。澳大利亚和巴西的铁矿由铁路线和能容纳世界上最大的散装货船的深水港口连接了起来。所以,从这两个国家到中国的运输成本才得以限制在每吨8美元左右。但是,把马来西亚铁矿运送到中国,每吨的成本是16美元,因为马来西亚的港口较浅——尽管一个较深的港口计划在明年年底前开放。But CAA benefits from a home-field advantage of sorts.但是,所谓的主场优势可以给CAA带来好处。The Chinese steel industry — and the Chinese government, which guides purchasing policies — has been reluctant to rely exclusively on Australia and Brazil, given its past difficulties. In the years before the global financial crisis, such players sharply increased ore export prices.由于过去曾面临困境,中国钢铁行业——以及引导采购政策的中国政府——不愿意完全依赖澳大利亚和巴西。在国际金融危机爆发前,两国的供应商曾大幅度抬高矿石的出口价格。“There is a strategic imperative — China does not want to be solely dependent on Australia and Brazil,” said Tim Huxley, chief executive of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, a big Hong Kong shipping company active in carrying iron ore to China. “They’ve done that before, and it cost them a lot of money.”“这里有个战略原因——中国不想只去依赖澳大利亚和巴西,”香港大型航运公司华光海运控股有限公司(Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings)的首席执行官蒂莫西·赫胥黎(Timothy Huxley)说,这家公司目前正在积极参与把铁矿运到中国的过程。“他们曾经就是这样做的,为此花了很多钱。”With migrant workers, CAA’s labor costs are tiny compared with those of mines elsewhere. The company has brought in Chinese mining equipment at less than half the cost of American or Japanese equipment — and has the connections with manufacturers to get broken parts fixed quickly.因为使用外来工人,与其他地方的矿区相比,CAA的劳动力成本可谓十分低廉。公司带来了中国的采矿设备,其成本连美国或日本设备的一半都不到——而且公司还与制造商有联系,能够快速修好损坏部件。So Mr. Li insists that his company’s Malaysian mines could still cover their costs and show a modest profit shipping ore back to China at prices close to a ton.所以,李阳坚称,他的公司在马来西亚的矿区能够承担其开销,而且还能通过以将近80美元一吨的价格把矿石运回中国,获取一定利润。“We’re still positive by this time,” he said. “The open pit process has low costs.”“目前,我们仍持乐观态度,”他说。“露天采矿的成本较低。” /201411/345071Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made. This famous remark of the German philosopher, Immanuel Kant, is particularly relevant to economists. “Homo economicus” is far-sighted, rational and self-interested. Real human beings are none of these things. We are bundles of emotions, not calculating machines. This matters.“人性这根曲木,绝然造不出任何笔直的东西。”经济学家尤其应该听听德国哲学家伊曼努尔#8226;康德(Immanuel Kant)的这句名言。“经济人”有远见、理性而且自私。真正的人跟经济人完全不一样。我们感情充沛,不是精于计算的机器。这非常关键。The World Bank’s latest World Development Report examines this territory. It notes that “behavioural economics” alters our view of human behaviour in three ways: first, most of our thinking is not deliberative, but automatic; second, it is socially conditioned; and, third, it is shaped by inaccurate mental models.世界(World Bank)在其发布的最新一期《世界发展报告》(World Development Report)中研究了该领域。它指出,“行为经济学”从3个方面改变了我们对人类行为的看法:首先,我们的大部分想法并非经过深思熟虑,而是自动产生的;其次,它受到社会的制约;第三,它脱胎于不精确的思维模式。The Nobel laureate, Daniel Kahneman, explored the idea that we think in two different ways in his 2011 bookThinking, Fast and Slow. The need for an automatic system is evident. Our ancestors did not have the time to work out answers to life’s challenges from first principles. They acquired automatic responses and a cultural predisposition towards rules of thumb. We inherited both these traits. Thus, we are influenced by how a problem is framed.诺贝尔奖得主丹尼尔#8226;卡内曼(Daniel Kahneman)在其2011年出版的《思维,快慢有别》(Thinking, Fast and Slow)一书中探讨了人类有两种不同思维方式的观点。拥有一种自动反应的思维体系显然是必要的。我们的祖先没时间从基本原则中寻找解决生活挑战的办法。他们获得了自动反应的本领,也形成了听从经验法则的文化倾向。这两种特质我们都继承了。因此,我们会受问题提出方式的影响。Another characteristic is “confirmation bias” — the tendency to interpret new information as support for pre-existing beliefs. We also suffer from loss aversion, fierce resistance to losing what one aly has. For our ancestors, on the margin of survival, that made sense.另一个特征是“确认偏误”(confirmation bias)——即将新信息解读为能够持已有观点的倾向。我们还有“厌恶损失”(loss aversion)的倾向,即强烈抗拒失去我们已经拥有的东西。对我们只能勉强维持生存的祖先来说,这种倾向非常明智。The fact that humans are intensely social is clear. Even the idea that we are autonomous is itself socially conditioned. We are also far from solely self-interested. A bad consequence of the power of norms is that societies may be stuck in destructive patterns of behaviour. Nepotism and corruption are examples. If they are entrenched, it may be difficult (or dangerous) for individuals not to participate. But social norms can also be valuable. Trust is a valuable norm. It rests on one of humanity’s strongest behaviours: conditional co-operation. People will punish free-riders even when it costs them to do so. This trait strengthens groups and so must raise members’ ability to survive.人类具有强烈的社会性,这是显而易见的。就连我们是独立的个体这个想法本身,也是受到社会制约的。我们也绝非完全自私。社会规范的强大威力带来的一个糟糕后果是,社会可能陷入消极的行为模式。裙带关系和腐败就是例。如果裙带关系或腐败根深蒂固,个人不参与其中或许就很困难(或危险)。但社会规范也可能是有用的。信任是一种有用的规范。它依赖于人类最擅长的行为之一:有条件的合作。人们将会惩罚搭便车者,即便惩罚他们要付出代价。这种特质增强了团队的凝聚力,从而肯定会提高团队成员的生存能力。Mental models are essential. Some seem to be inbuilt; and some can be damaging — as well as productive. Ideas about “us” and “them”, reinforced by social norms, may well lead to results that range from the merely unfair to the catastrophic. Equally important may be mental models that create self-fulfilling expectations of who will succeed and who will fail. There is evidence, notes the WDR, that mental models rooted in history may shape people’s view of the world for centuries: caste is an example. Such mental models survive because they are reproduced socially and become part of the automatic rather than the deliberative system. They influence not just our perceptions of others, but perceptions of ourselves.思维模式非常关键。有些似乎是人内在固有的,此外,有些模式可能同时具有创造性和破坏性。关于“我们”和“他们”的观念如果经过社会规范的强化,很可能导致各种各样的结果,从仅仅是不公平的,到酿成灾难的。有些思维模式能够产生有关谁将成功、谁将失败的预期(并且这种预期具有自我实现的能力),这些思维模式同样重要。《世界发展报告》指出,有据表明,有深厚历史根源的思维模式可能决定人们数百年的世界观:种姓制度就是一个例子。此类思维模式之所以经久不衰,是因为它们在社会上不断繁殖,成为了一种自动(而非经过深思熟虑)的反应。它们不仅影响我们对其他人的看法,还影响我们对自己的看法。To illustrate the relevance of these realities, the report analyses the policy challenges of poverty, early childhood development, household finance, productivity, health and climate change.为了表明这些研究与现实密切相关,该报告还分析了贫穷、幼儿期发展、家庭财务、生产率、健康和气候变化的政策挑战。On household finance, for example, the report notes that it makes a difference whether would-be borrowers are told explicitly how much more expensive is a payday loan than an equivalent loan on a credit card. Revealing the status of low-caste boys in a mixed-caste classroom depresses the performance of students from lower castes compared with what happens if caste is not revealed. The boys respond to how they are presented. Again, poverty is not just a lack of material resources:it undermines the ability to think deliberately.例如,在家庭财务方面,该报告指出,潜在借款者是否被明确告知发薪日贷款(payday loan,一种小额、短期的高利贷,用于贷款人下一次发薪之前临时急用——译者注)与等额信用卡贷款相比有多么昂贵,结果将大为不同。如果在一个种姓混杂的班级里让大家知道谁是低种姓学生,那么低种姓学生的表现就会不如其身份没有暴露时的表现。别人如何介绍自己,会影响这些男孩的表现。同样,贫穷不仅仅是物质资源的匮乏:它还削弱一个人审慎思考的能力。The way people think may also affect their productivity. An example is the benefits of contracts that penalise a worker for failing to meet the output targets she has chosen for herself. This is a way of closing the gap between good intentions and actual performance, such as when we agree to put money in the swearbox when we curse. We often disappoint ourselves. We may wish to bind ourselves to better behaviour, like Odysseus to his mast.人们的思考方式也可能影响他们的生产效率。一个例子是,签订这样的合同有不错的效果:约定工人如果未能完成自己选择的产量目标就会受到惩罚。要消除良好意愿与实际表现的差距,这是一种方法,比如我们同意只要我们骂人就要往罚款箱里投钱。我们常常让自己失望。我们可能希望约束自己、迫使自己表现得更好,就像奥德修斯(Odysseus)让人把自己捆在桅杆上(以抵挡海妖歌声的诱惑)那样。Health creates vital examples. One is the importance of mental models. An obvious one is the anti-vaccination hysteria. Another, illustrated by the WDR, is the tendency of poor women to believe that the right treatment for diarrhoea is to cut fluid intake, to stop their child “leaking”. Another is the tendency of people to be put off by even a very small charge for health products. The explanation for the reluctance to pay anything may, it suggests, be because free provision underpins the norm that everybody ought to take the medicine.健康领域产生了一些重要的例子,其中之一是思维模式的重要性。一种明显的思维模式是非理性地反对接种疫苗。《世界发展报告》举出的另一种思维模式是,贫穷的妇女往往认为,腹泻的正确治疗方法是减少液体的摄入,这样他们的孩子就不再“拉稀”。还有一种思维模式是,人们往往不愿购买收费的健康产品,哪怕金额极低。报告称,人们之所以一分钱都不愿花,可能是因为,免费提供才符合有难同当的社会规范。These then are intriguing examples of a more nuanced approach to policy. Another area where a narrow focus only on incentives is likely to be misleading is financial regulation. Many economists believe that dysfunctional behaviour in financial markets is due solely to distorted incentives: deposit insurance, the perception that institutions are “too big to fail” and a host of other explicit and implicit subsidies. Equally important, however, are behavioural norms, such as the view that the primary duty of bankers is to themselves not their customers; or inappropriate mental models, such as the widesp pre-crisis belief that house prices could not fall across the US. Regulation needs to be built on an understanding of such human frailties. It must focus on norms and groupthink, as well as on distorted incentives.因此这些有趣的例子表明了政策手段有必要更加细致。另一个关键领域是金融监管,在这一领域中,如果仅仅关注于激励就可能导致误解。许多经济学家相信,金融市场中的失灵行为完全是扭曲的动机造成的,比如:存款保险、机构“太大而不能倒闭”的观念,以及其他众多显性和隐性补贴。然而,同样重要的是社会行为规范,比如认为家主要应该对他们自己、而不是客户负责的观点;或者不适当的思维模式,比如危机前人们普遍认为,美国的房价不会普跌。监管需要建立在了解此类人性弱点的基础之上。它必须不仅关注于扭曲的动机,还关注于社会规范和群体迷思(groupthink)。How far should policy be based on these perceptions, particularly since those who make policy are, as the WDR admits, prone to all sorts of biases in their own decision-making? We are all made of Kant’s crooked timber: nobody has godlike wisdom and self-control.政策应该在多大程度上以这些观念为基础?尤其是正如《世界发展报告》承认的那样,那些制定政策的人士往往对他们自己的决策存在各种各样的偏见。我们全都由康德所说的“曲木”制成:没有人有上帝那样的智慧和自制力。Yet policy must be made. It is surely better to make well-informed and realistic policy than base it on a grossly simplistic view of our true capacities. Moreover, nudging people in the direction they aly want to go — by encouraging them to save, learn, behave healthily or bring up their children better — is hardly a gross violation of liberty. Yet encouragement should not slide too easily into coercion. Adults are not to be treated as children. That, too, is a social norm and quite a fundamental one.然而政策是必须制定的。充分了解相关信息、从现实出发制定政策,肯定要比基于对我们真实能力的过分简单化理解制定政策要好。此外,通过鼓励人们储蓄、学习、过健康生活或更好地抚育子女,推动人们朝他们本来就希望的方向前进,这不能说是严重侵犯自由。然而,鼓励不应轻易地演变为强制。不应把成年人当做小孩对待。那也是一种社会规范,而且还是相当根深蒂固的一种。 /201501/355489You get exactly one chance at success in the Japanese labour market, and as the world economy started to turn downwards in 2007, an 18-year-old Mr Takeda missed his.在日本劳动力市场,你只有一次成功的机会——不多也不少。当2007年世界经济开始下行时,18岁的竹田(Takeda)错过了自己的机会。His technical high school poured effort into matching its pupils with employers, but as a shy teenager in that year’s weak market, he was left without a job — and no way back. Mr Takeda, who does not want his full name published, describes what followed as six years of “black”.他所上的技术高中努力帮助自己的学生找工作,但他是个害羞的年轻人,在那年不景气的市场环境下没有找到工作——也没法重新来过。竹田不希望文章中出现他的全名。他把接下来的六年描述成“黑色”的六年。“If you don’t get recruited first time around it’s extremely difficult,” says Mr Takeda, who couldn’t even get a part-time position. “I didn’t have any work experience. Once you have a blank period on your CV it’s extremely hard to get a job.”“如果你毕业时没找到工作,再想找到工作就非常困难了,”竹田说。他甚至得不到一份兼职工作。“我当时没有任何工作经验。一旦你的履历上有一段空白期,要找到一份工作就变得极端困难。”Mr Takeda fell victim to the poisonous combination of a deflationary economy and Japan’s lifetime employment system. Lucky school and university leavers get a secure job for the rest of their career. Those who miss out enter a precarious limbo of temporary contracts and part-time work.经济通缩和日本的终身就业制度是一种有害的结合,竹田就成为了这种结合的牺牲品。幸运的高中和大学毕业生会找到一份可以从事一辈子的工作。那些毕业时没找到工作的人,就进入了一种危险的没着没落状态,只能签临时工作合同、从事兼职工作。With this kind of work increasingly on the rise in developed countries, Japan is an advanced case study in what happens when a large group of workers is marginalised in this way.考虑到发达国家的这种工作越来越多,日本为考察当大量劳动者以这种方式被边缘化时会发生什么提供了一个高级案例。Those who missed out on lifetime jobs in the aftermath of Japan’s 1990 stock market crash are now in their forties.那些在日本1990年股市崩盘之后错过了终身制饭碗的人,如今已经40多岁了。“There are many men who couldn’t find work when they were young, gave up, and they’re now in middle age,” says Yuji Genda, a professor at the University of Tokyo.“有许多这样的人,他们在年轻时没找到工作,就放弃了,现在已步入中年,”东京大学(University of Tokyo)教授玄田有史(Yuji Genda)说。There are now around 340,000 Japanese men of prime working age, between 35 and 44 who are out of the labour force — double the level of 20 years ago. “It’s become a big social problem,” he says.日本目前约有34万处于职业盛年(35岁至44岁)的人不属于劳动力人口,这个数字为20年前的两倍。“这已经成了一个严重的社会问题,”他说。Mr Genda’s research highlights the extremity of what happens to Japanese students who graduate in a bad job market. In the US, if the unemployment rate is one percentage point higher at the time of graduation, a high school graduate earns 3 per cent less on average.玄田有史的研究凸显了在劳动力市场糟糕时期毕业的日本学生所面临的极端遭遇。在美国,如果高中毕业生在毕业时失业率高了1个百分点,那么他们的平均收入会低3%。That disadvantage fades out after a few years. But in Japan, graduating in similar conditions means a 7 per cent wage hit on average, and more than a decade later students in that cohort will still be earning 5 to 7 per cent less. The brunt of that wage loss is borne by those who did not secure a regular job.在美国,这一劣势在几年之后就消失了。但在日本,同样的情况意味着,那些高中毕业生的平均收入会低7%,十年多以后,他们的收入仍将低5%至7%。承受工资损失冲击的是那些没找到正规工作的人。The polarisation of Japan’s labour market not only causes hardship for those on the wrong side of the lifetime system — it is also a significant economic problem.日本劳动力市场的两极分化,不但令终身就业制度之外的人艰难度日,而且也构成一个突出的经济问题。The productivity of temporary staff is lower, the IMF argues, because they are less motivated and companies do not train them.国际货币基金组织(IMF)提出,临时工的生产效率更低,因为他们的积极性更低,公司也不培训他们。The fund has urged Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, to prioritise overhauling the jobs market as part of the “third arrow” of Abenomics, his package of structural reforms designed to tackle deflation and boost growth.IMF敦促日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)把彻底改革劳动力市场提高到优先位置,作为安倍经济学“第三箭”的组成部分。“第三箭”是指安倍提出的旨在摆脱通缩和提振增长的一系列结构性改革措施。The Diet, or parliament, is considering modest reforms, such as letting companies pay professional staff by results instead of hours worked, but nothing that would break down what has become a two-tier market, economists said.经济学家表示,日本国会(Diet)正在考虑实施温和改革,比如让公司根据业绩而不是工作时长给专业人员付薪水,但经济学家表示,这么做将无法打破当前劳动力市场已经形成的分化。 /201508/392897

KATMANDU, Nepal —Even for Lakpa Rita, a revered Nepalese mountaineer who has reached the summit of Mount Everest 17 times, the roaring wall of boulders, rocks, ice and debris that pulverized much of the mountain’s base camp over the weekend signified a malign new twist in the peak’s destructive powers.尼泊尔加德满都——上周末席卷而来的巨砾、岩石、冰块及碎片在很大程度上摧毁了珠穆朗玛峰大本营。就算是对于17次登上珠峰峰顶的受人尊敬的尼泊尔登山者拉科帕·里塔(Lakpa Rita)来说,这也意味着这座山峰展现了一种新的可怕的破坏力量。“Nothing like this has happened before at Everest base camp,” Mr. Rita said by telephone Monday from the camp in eastern Nepal, in the aftermath of the earthquake that set off the avalanche and geological convulsions there. At least 18 people died in the area of the camp, which is 18,000 feet above sea level. “This is a huge, huge avalanche,” he said.地震发生后,里塔周一在尼泊尔东部的这座营地通过电话表示,“珠峰大本营以前从未遇到这种情况。”此次地震引发了那里的雪崩和地质震动。营地位于海拔1.8万英尺(约合5500米)的地方。在它所在的地区,至少有18人死亡。“这是一场非常大,非常大的雪崩,”他说。The search for victims’ bodies around the camp, where mountaineers gather before trying to reach Everest’s summit, is likely to be long and difficult.在营地周围搜寻遇难者遗体很可能是一项漫长且艰巨的任务。在攀登珠峰峰顶之前,登山者会在这座营地汇聚。Rescue efforts stalled on Monday because of bad weather, after 20 stranded climbers had been evacuated and 11 bodies had been retrieved, Jhankanath Dhakal, the chief district officer of Solukhumbu District, which includes Nepal’s part of Everest, said in a telephone interview. That was after 60 people were evacuated from Everest on Sunday, he said.索卢坤布的地区长官简卡纳斯·达卡尔(Jhankanath Dhakal)接受电话采访时表示,周一,在撤离20名受困登山者并找到11具遗体之后,由于天气糟糕,救援工作受阻。珠峰位于尼泊尔境内的部分属于他管辖的这一地区。他说,周日有60人从珠峰撤离。For many tourists and adventurers, visiting Everest — even at the relatively low base camp — fulfills an intensely personal, and expensive, quest to test extremes. But for many ethnic Sherpas employed as local guides, who often take immense pride in their high-altitude skills, the most immediate motivation is a good income.对于很多游客和探险人士来说,珠峰之行——即便是在海拔较低的大本营——意味着完成一项探索极限的追求,极其个人化,而且费用高昂。然而,对于很多担任当地向导的夏尔巴人来说,最直接的动力就是高收入。他们往往为自己的高海拔技能而感到非常自豪。Last year, an avalanche killed at least 13 Sherpa guides on Mount Everest, and left three others missing, likely dead. How many Sherpas were among the fatalities at base camp this time was unclear, but Mr. Dhakal, the district official, said the 11 bodies retrieved on Monday included seven Nepalis. Yet even the two successive seasons of tragedy appeared unlikely to deter Sherpa men from taking jobs as paid guides and load-bearers on mountain expeditions.去年,珠峰发生的一次雪崩导致至少13名夏尔巴人向导死亡,另有3人失踪,很可能也已丧生。目前尚不清楚这一次有多少夏尔巴人在大本营遇难,但地区长官达卡尔表示,周一找到的11具遗体中有7个为尼泊尔人。不过,连续两个登山季发生的悲剧似乎不大可能使夏尔巴人打消通过担任探险向导和挑山工来赚钱的念头。In Nepal, where the average income is about 0 a year, Sherpas can make ,000 to ,000 in a season on Mount Everest, as well as bonuses if they reach the summit.在尼泊尔,年人均收入为700美元(约合4300元人民币),而夏尔巴人每个登山季可以在珠峰赚到3000至5000美元,如果到达峰顶,还能获得额外的奖励。“They still do it, especially for the money,” said Jangba Shankar, an employee of a Himalayan mountain guide company who was at the Katmandu Medical College hospital, helping to care for a guide who had been flown down from the Everest base camp with head and neck injuries.一家喜马拉雅山向导公司的员工贾巴·尚卡尔(Jangba Shankar)表示,“他们仍然在这么做,尤其是为了钱。”尚卡尔接受采访时正在加德满都医学院(Katmandu Medical College)的附属医院帮助照看一名头部和颈部受伤的向导。此人被直升机从珠峰大本营运送下山。“Some people are not happy because they lost their jobs because of the avalanche,” said Mr. Shankar, referring to the disaster last year. “Some people worry the earthquake will scare away people.”“有些人因为雪崩而失去了工作,感到不高兴,”尚卡尔谈到去年发生的灾难事件时表示。“还有些人担心这次的地震会把人吓跑。”Even hardened climbers admitted to being terrified by the wave of destruction.就连铁杆登山迷都承认,地震的强大破坏力让他们非常害怕。“I heard a really big thump and then I knew, O.K., the avalanche is coming,” Mariusz Malkowski, a 42-year-old Polish-American engineer and an experienced climber, said on Monday after finding his way out of base camp and eventually to New Delhi. But he said he was not prepared for what he saw: a wave of snow and ice, accompanied by a tremendous gust of air. “Imagine a tsunami,” he said.“我听到了一声巨响,然后我意识到,好吧,雪崩来了,”42岁的波兰裔美国工程师、经验丰富的登山者马里乌什·马尔科夫斯基(Mariusz Malkowski)周一在找到撤离大本营的途径并最终抵达新德里后表示。但是他说,自己当时并没有为后来见到的景象做好准备:一波又一波的冰雪,伴随着一股强大的气流。“想象一下海啸的场景,”他说。“Mountains and glaciers shook all around us,” Sean Wisedale, a South African climber and expedition leader, recounted on his blog. “A massive ice slab sheared and thundered into Base Camp. It lifted rocks and boulders ahead of it, slamming into hundreds of tents in the center of the camp and spilling over onto the Khumbu glacier on the other side.”“我们周围的山体和冰川都在震动,”南非登山者、探险队队长肖恩·怀斯达勒(Sean Wisedale)在他的客上写道。“一片巨大的冰块断裂,轰隆隆地砸到了大本营里。它掀起前面的岩石和巨砾,砸入大本营中心的数百顶帐篷,还溅落到了另一侧的昆布冰川。”Members of his team dived into their tents, and then emerged to a different world. “Base Camp was the site of post Armageddon,” he wrote.他的团队成员躲进帐篷,再出来的时候见到的是另一个世界。“大本营所在地就是世界末日过后,”他写道。There seems little chance, however, that successive disasters will seriously dull the luster of Mount Everest among visitors. Some foreign trekkers who had left Everest after the earthquake, or had their plans to visit stymied by the disaster, said in interviews in Katmandu that they hoped to return to the mountain. Others said they had seen enough.不过,接连发生的灾难似乎不大可能严重影响珠峰对游客的吸引力。在震后离开珠峰或者因为这场灾难而使登山计划受阻的一些外国徒步者在加德满都接受采访时说,他们希望能回到山上。其他一些人则表示已经不必再去。“Emotionally, I felt like this trip was so much bigger than the actual physical journey,” Rob Besecker, who lives in Chicago, said in an interview. He has muscular dystrophy and heart problems, and said he had trekked to the Everest base camp, and other famous or forbidding parts of the world, to show people that illness should not overshadow their lives. He had aly left the base camp when the earthquake struck.“从感情意义来说,我觉得这次旅行比实际上的身体之旅的意义要大很多,”住在芝加哥的罗伯·贝塞克(Rob Besecker)在采访中说。他患有肌肉萎缩症,心脏也有毛病。他表示自己曾徒步抵达珠峰大本营和世界上其他一些著名景点或难以接近的地方,为的是向世人表明,生活不应该笼罩在疾病的阴影之下。地震发生时,他已经离开了大本营。“I felt there were so many eyes on me that you just got to do it,” Mr. Besecker said. “So there was a physical battle, and an emotional battle.”“我感觉有很多双眼睛盯着我,必须要这样做,”贝塞克说。“所以这既是一场身体上的战斗,也是一场情感上的战斗。”When memories of this year’s trauma subside, mountain enthusiasts will return to Everest with the same zeal as before, according to Jiban Ghimire, the managing director of Shangri-La Nepal Trek, a company in Katmandu that provides support to mountaineering teams.位于加德满都的香格里拉尼泊尔徒步公司(Shangri-La Nepal Trek)为登山队提供持。公司执行董事吉班·吉米雷(Jiban Ghimire)表示,当关于今年的创痛的记忆退却之时,登山迷们还是会带着同样的热情重返珠峰。“My experience is that every year something goes wrong,” he said. “But when you cross three months, six months, eight months, people start asking me, ‘Hey Jiban, I want to go back.’”“我的经验是,每年都会出事,”他说。“不过三个月、六个月或者八个月过后,人们会开始对我说,‘嗨,吉班,我想回去。’” /201504/372635For six years, emerging markets have lived in a world defined by the US Federal Reserve’s policies of easy money. Tides of liquidity have flowed from developed to developing economies, financing infrastructure and corporate investment and allowing consumers to indulge credit-fuelled retail dreams.六年来,新兴市场一直处在美联储(Federal Reserve)宽松货币政策所营造的世界里。一股又一股流动性洪流从发达经济体涌向发展中经济体,为基础设施和企业投资提供资金,还让消费者陶醉于信贷助燃的消费梦想。Thus, the Fed’s announcement yesterday that it would draw quantitative easing to an end represents both a watershed and a leap into the unknown.因此,美联储昨日宣布量化宽松(QE)政策结束,既是一个分水岭,也代表着纵身跳入一个未知世界。The end of asset purchases comes at a challenging time for emerging markets, beset by a confluence of adverse and interconnected trends. China’s economy is slowing, as is the eurozone led by subpar German demand.美联储终止资产购买计划之际,适逢新兴市场进入一个充满挑战的时期,受到各种相互关联的不利趋势的困扰。中国经济正在放缓,受德国需求不足拖累的欧元区也是如此。Commodity prices are in a prolonged slump. Meanwhile, asset prices and debt levels in many developing countries remain at elevated levels following six years of liquidity inflows.大宗商品——包括石油、基础金属和一些粮食——价格已陷入持续低迷。与此同时,经过六年的流动性流入后,许多发展中国家的资产价格和债务水平仍处于较高水平。“Even without the commodity downturn, monetary tightening by the US is a dangerous time for emerging markets,” said Michael Power, strategist at Investec, an investment fund.“即使没有大宗商品的低迷,美国收紧货币政策对新兴市场而言也是一个危险的时刻,”投资基金Investec的分析师迈克尔#8226;鲍尔(Michael Power)表示。“令人想起巴菲特的妙语——只有退潮的时候,才能知道谁在裸泳。”The broad-based decline in commodity prices, a drag on growth for commodity exporters such as Brazil, Russia and Chile, has been driven in part by markets expecting the end of QE.大宗商品的价格普遍下降,在一定程度上是因为市场预期量化宽松政策将要告终。价格下降拖累了大宗商品出口国,如巴西、俄罗斯和智利的经济增长。The unwinding of the US monetary stimulus has underpinned an appreciation by the US dollar, in which most commodities are priced. A rising greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive to buyers, creating pressure for sellers to lower prices.美国解除货币刺激的做法推高了美元汇率,而多数大宗商品是以美元计价的。美元升值使得以美元计价的大宗商品对买家更加昂贵,进而给卖家带来降价的压力。Nomura predicts that a basket of 19 food, energy and metal commodity prices may fall 10 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year, after declining by 12 per cent between June and the end of October. Particularly striking has been the slump in the price of oil, with Brent crude down 17 per cent to a barrel.野村券(Nomura)预计,今年第四季度一篮子19种粮食、能源和金属大宗商品价格可能下降10%,而此前从6月至10月底已经下降了12%。特别引人注目的是油价低迷,布伦特(Brent)原油自8月底以来下跌了17%,至每桶86美元。Rob Subbaraman, chief economist at Nomura, points to changes flowing from the sliding prices of commodities. But, overall, the effect over time is likely to be damaging, potentially triggering political instability.野村券首席亚洲经济学家苏文(Rob Subbaraman)指出了大宗商品价格下滑带来的一些变化。但总体而言,随着时间的推移,影响很可能是不利的,潜在可能引发政治不稳定。“Over the last 10-year commodity boom, many emerging market countries saw strong economic growth leading to the formation of what many now call the ‘new middle class’,” he said.“在过去10年的大宗商品繁荣期间,很多新兴市场国家出现强劲经济增长,催生了很多人所称的‘新中产阶级’,”他说。“A sustained drop in commodity prices could#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;mean a permanent fall in potential growth if no reforms are undertaken. This could cause political instability that could feedback negatively on economic policy.”“如果不推行改革,大宗商品价格持续下降可能……意味着潜在增长率的永久下降。这可能引起政治不稳定,进而可能对经济政策产生不利影响。”Falling commodity prices are aly leading to lower forecasts for emerging market growth. The International Institute of Finance, an association of global institutions, sees national income in emerging Europe contracting 2.9 per cent in the fourth quarter, after a 0.1 per cent fall in the third quarter, driven mostly by a slump in Russia. In the emerging economies of the Asia-Pacific, the IIF sees growth slowing to 6.8 per cent in the fourth quarter, down from 7 per cent in the third. Only in Latin America does it see a rise, to 2 per cent from 1.2 per cent in the third quarter.大宗商品价格不断下跌,已经导致各方下调新兴市场的经济增长预测。国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance,简称IIF)预测,欧洲新兴经济体的国民收入在第三季度萎缩0.1%之后,在第四季度将进一步萎缩2.9%,主要拖累因素是俄罗斯经济陷入低迷。对于亚太地区的新兴经济体,国际金融协会预测第四季度的增长将放缓至6.8%,低于第三季度7%的增幅。根据国际金融协会的预测,只有拉丁美洲的增长会加速,从第三季度的增长1.2%加快至第四季度的增长2%。In the minds of many analysts, the future depends on what the Fed does next. If it moves swiftly to a more hawkish monetary policy, leading ultimately to a rise in US interest rates, the result for emerging markets could be stark.在很多分析师的眼里,未来取决于美联储如何走下一步。如果它快速转向更为鹰派的货币政策,最终上调美元利率,其结果对新兴市场可能是严峻的。“If the Fed raises rates, it could be pretty negative for emerging markets,” said Mr Subbaraman. “A high interest rate environment is something that we have not seen for a long time.”“如果美联储提高利率,那对新兴市场可能是相当不利的,”野村券的苏文说。“大家已经有很久没有经历高利率环境了。”Particularly vulnerable, said Craig Botham, economist at Schroders, would be debt markets that have become engorged with QE-inflated cash and which have done much to finance government deficits, infrastructure projects and company expansion plans.施罗德(Schroders)经济学家克雷格#8226;瑟姆(Craig Botham)表示,近年充斥由QE带来的资金,并且为资助政府赤字、基础设施项目和企业扩张计划出了大力的债务市场尤其脆弱。Foreign ownership in local emerging market bonds has risen from 8 per cent in 2007 to 17 per cent in 2012, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Over the same period, the total size of domestic securities markets in emerging markets increased by a third to over tn.根据国际清算(Bank for International Settlements)的数据,外资所持的新兴市场本地债券比例已从2007年的8%升至2012年的17%。同期,新兴市场国内券市场的总规模增加三分之一,至16万亿美元以上。Nevertheless, even with all the negative signals, there are silver linings. Falling commodity prices are leading to ebbing inflationary pressures in much of the emerging world, giving central banks latitude to keep monetary policy loose . And while the Fed has drawn its asset purchases to an end, the Bank of Japan is still busy buying government bonds. The European Central Bank may follow suit if growth in the eurozone continues to disappoint. The era of abundant liquidity is by no means over.不过,即便有种种负面信号,令人抱有希望的迹象也是有的。不断下跌的大宗商品价格导致许多新兴国家通胀压力消退,使央行拥有保持宽松货币政策的回旋余地。同时,尽管美联储已经终止资产购买计划,但日本央行(Bank of Japan)仍忙于购买政府债券。如果欧元区经济增长继续令人失望,欧洲央行(ECB)也可能效仿。流动性充裕的时代远远没有结束。 /201410/339196

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