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2019年06月26日 00:22:11 | 作者:健社区 | 来源:新华社
Europeans are more pessimistic about how equal their societies actually are, while in the US people are wedded to the American dream and believe society is fairer than it really is.欧洲人对本国社会的实际平等程度更加悲观,而美国人则紧抱美国梦、他们眼中的美国社会比实际上更加平等。German research sheds new light on the political challenges involved in tax, income distribution and social fairness and raises questions in the equality debate revived by French economist Thomas Piketty.德国的一项研究为涉及税收、收入分配和社会公平的各项政治挑战带来了新的启发,在由法国经济学家托马斯#8226;皮凯蒂(Thomas Piketty)重新点燃的不公平辩论中提出了问题。The study, to be presented at Germany’s Lindau conference this week, “suggests that in the political debate on income distribution, it is often not the facts that count but [perceptions]”, said Professor Michael Hüther, director of the Cologne-based IW economic institute.德国科隆经济研究所(IW)负责人迈克尔#8226;许特(Michael Hüther)教授表示,本周将在德国林道(Lindau)会议上发表的这份研究报告“似乎表明在这场有关收入分配的政治辩论中,重要的往往不是事实,而是(印象)”。Author Judith Niehues compared actual and perceived income levels in the US and 23 EU countries, using economic data and polling of about 1,000 people in each country.研究报告的作者朱迪丝#8226;尼许斯(Judith Niehues)利用经济数据,并在每个国家对大约1000人进行调查,比较了美国和23个欧盟(EU)国家的实际收入水平和本国人认为的收入水平。She found that Europeans underestimate the proportion of middle-income earners and overestimate the proportion of the poor, commonly defined as people on incomes of 60 per cent or less of the median.她发现,欧洲人低估了中等收入者的比例,高估了穷人的比例,后者通常定义为收入达到或低于中值收入60%的人士。Only the US has a more unequal income distribution than its citizens imagined, with many more poor people.只有美国的实际收入分配情况比其国民想象的更为不平等,穷人的数量也大大超过他们认为的。In Europe, people on middle incomes are far more numerous than those at the bottom or the top of the pay ladder. So a European income-distribution chart resembles a barrel, with a bulge in the middle. But many see it as a tower standing on a broad plinth, with a small elite, a modest middle-class and a big base of low earners.在欧洲,中等收入者的数量远远超过位于收入阶梯最底端或最顶端者。因此,欧洲的收入分配呈桶形,中间部分比两头更鼓。但在许多人眼中,欧洲的收入分配为塔形,基座宽,塔尖小,中产阶层不多不少,底部有庞大的低收入人群。This is particularly true in Germany and France, where people see income distribution as far more unequal than it is. In the UK and Spain, where distribution is less equal, perceptions are more accurate.德国和法国尤其如此,这两国人眼中的本国收入分配不平等程度远远超过实际情况。在收入分配更不平等的英国和西班牙,人们的印象更为准确。More than 30 per cent of Americans have incomes of 60 per cent or less of the median. But most people think that only 24 per cent of their fellow citizens are at this level. “The middle class is truly smaller in the USA and the lower income group considerably more numerous than its citizens suppose,” says a summary of the study, which suggests this might be partly linked to social mobility in the US. People may be less focused on inequality if they think they are climbing the income ladder, explaining why pressure for redistributive taxation is lower in the US.逾30%美国人的收入刚刚达到或低于中值收入60%。但大多数美国人认为这个比例仅为24%。研究摘要称,“在美国,实际的中产阶层人数比其国民想象的更少,较低收入人群则庞大得多”。报告提出,部分原因可能是美国的社会流动性较大。如果人们认为自己在收入阶梯上的位置正在攀升,那么他们或许不会那么关注不平等,这解释了为何在美国通过征税对财富进行再分配的民意压力较低。In Europe, the gap between perception and reality is particularly wide in former communist states, with citizens convinced their countries are far less equal than they really are.在欧洲,国民的印象和实际情况差异格外大的是那些前共产党统治国家,这些国家的国民认为的不平等程度远远超过实际情况。The report adds that levels of concern about inequality tend to be greater in countries with higher levels of perceived inequality. More than half of Germans and 79 per cent of French think income differentials are too great, against about 30 per cent of Britons and Spaniards.报告补充称,在国民认为的不平等程度超过实际情况的国家,有关不平等的担忧往往更强烈。逾一半德国人、以及79%的法国人认为,本国的收入差距太大,而在英国和西班牙,持这种看法者的比例约为30%。 /201408/321905

It was during a daily tussle with his three business partners over a flask of home-made aam panna — a traditional Indian drink concocted from raw green mangos — that Neeraj Kakkar had an inspiration that led to the creation of Paper Boat drinks.过去尼拉杰#8226;卡卡尔(Neeraj Kakkar)每天都和3个商业伙伴争抢一瓶自制的aam panna——一种用生的青芒果制作的传统印度饮料。正是在一次争抢中,他获得了灵感,最终创立了饮料品牌Paper Boat。A former Coca-Cola India manager, Mr Kakkar had set up his own drinks company two years earlier in 2010. But Hector Beverages was drifting. Its energy drink, Tzinga, was selling only moderately. Launching a western-inspired “vitamin water” seemed the next logical move. Until James Nuttall, Mr Kakkar’s American partner, asked where to buy aam panna — the distinctive sweet-and-sour mango cooler, made by the mother of one of the partners — for his own visiting parents.卡卡尔过去在可口可乐印度公司(Coca-Cola India)任经理,在Paper Boat问世前两年,也就是2010年,他就创立了自己的饮料公司Hector Beverages。但公司发展比较缓慢,旗下的能量饮料Tzinga销量一般。下一步似乎理应推出一款跟风西方的“维他命水”。直到卡卡尔的美国商业伙伴詹姆斯#8226;纳托尔(James Nuttall)问在哪里能买到aam panna,他想给自己过来探望的父母买一些。这种有独特酸甜口味的冷饮正是其中一位合作伙伴的母亲制作的。“We were flummoxed,” Mr Kakkar says. “We thought about it for some time and realised there is no aam panna available in this country. Talk of blind spots. You have been living here, working in the beverage industry, and the aam panna, which you like and which you fight over every day — nobody is making it, and it is available nowhere.”“我们当时非常迷惑,”卡卡尔说,“我们想了一段时间,然后意识到这个国家根本买不到aam panna。这就是所谓的盲点。你在这里生活,在饮料行业工作,而你爱喝的,并且每天争抢的aam panna——没有人制作,哪儿都买不到。”That was the origin of Paper Boat — Hector Beverages’ brand of traditional Indian drinks, which have been lapped up by affluent, urban Indian consumers since their launch in August 2013. Sold in sleek, single-serving flexible packaging — squashy bottles — Paper Boat drinks are available in 10 varieties — from the aam paana and jal jeera (cumin water) of north India, to the kokum, or wild mangosteen juice, popular in the southwestern coastal region.这就是Hector Beverages旗下传统印度饮料品牌Paper Boat的缘起——自2013年8月上市以来,Paper Boat便受到了富裕的印度城市消费者的热切欢迎。Paper Boat使用时尚的流线型一次性按压式软袋包装,从印度北部的aam paana和jal jeera(茴香水),到印度东南沿海地区流行的kokum(野山竹汁),共有10种口味可供选择。The indigenous beverages are reminders of a not-so-distant time when life in India was slower and less affected by globalisation. “We have hit on something,” says the ebullient Mr Kakkar, speaking in the lobby of a hotel in Gurgaon, on his way to his factory in rural Haryana. “The brand has some resonance with the people, the product has a lot of resonance with people, and there is a huge pipeline [of potential flavours] that is still untouched.”这些本土饮料勾起了人们对并不遥远的过去的回忆,那时全球化还没有对印度人的生活产生如此巨大的影响,人们的生活节奏更慢。“我们击中了某个点,”卡卡尔在古尔冈(Gurgaon)一家酒店的大堂里兴高采烈地说,他正要到位于哈里亚纳邦(Haryana)农村的工厂去,“这个牌子引起了人们的一些共鸣,这些饮料则引起了人们更多的共鸣,还有一大堆(口味)没开发呢。”India’s diverse culinary heritage inc#173;ludes many cooling drinks made from local fruits, spices, flowers and even pulses. Two decades ago, these drinks were everywhere: made at home, or by informal vendors, whose recipes were fiercely guarded. Today, they are rare treats. The vendors have disappeared, casualties of concerns about hyg#173;iene and the on#173;slaught of modern packaged drinks. Women, once the ones to make them at home, are today too busy — or don’t know how. “All these drinks are dying and they are dying at a very fast pace. But we can revive them,” he says.印度丰富多样的传统饮食包括很多用当地水果、香料、花朵甚至豆子制作的冷饮。20年前,这种饮料到处都有:家中可以自制,路边小贩也有售卖,配方都是密不外传的。如今,这些饮料都很稀罕了。人们对卫生问题的担忧,以及现代包装饮品的冲击,让那些小贩纷纷销声匿迹。以前女性会在家中制作这些饮料,现在她们则忙得无暇顾及——或者也不知道怎么制作了。“所有这些饮料都在消逝,而且速度非常快。但我们可以重振它们,”卡卡尔说。Traditional beverages were the last thing on his mind when he re#173;turned to India from Wharton business school in the US, in 2010. Once, he hoped his MBA would speed his rise at Coca-Cola. By now, he had a thirst for enterprise. But his ideas of what to sell were heavily influenced by his western experience.当他2010年从美国沃顿商学院(Wharton business school)回到印度时,从来没有考虑过传统饮料。他一度曾希望自己的MBA学历能够加速他在可口可乐公司的晋升。而这时,他对创业已有了浓厚的兴趣,但对于卖什么,他的想法却严重受到西方留学经历的影响。His first partner was former Coke colleague Suhas Misra, whose moth#173;er fatefully provided aam panna for his lunch. Their initial product, funded by savings, was a soya-based protein powder, which they peddled at gyms. “The hypothesis was: India is a large country, a vegetarian country with lots of malnutrition, so let’s start a protein powder,” Mr Kakkar says. “But nobody was buying it.”卡卡尔的第一位合作伙伴是之前在可口可乐公司的同事苏哈斯#8226;米斯拉(Suhas Misra)。犹如宿命一般,米斯拉的母亲在他的午餐里准备了aam panna。他们用自己的积蓄推出了第一款产品,是一款以大豆为主料的蛋白粉,在体育馆里推销。“当初的设想是:印度是一个大国,一个以素食为主的国家,营养不良的人非常多,所以咱们卖蛋白粉吧,”卡卡尔说,“但是没人买账。”Then at his Wharton graduation in May 2010 Mr Kakkar caught up with Mr Nuttall, who had worked on flexible pack#173;aging. Mr Kak#173;kar persuaded his old classmate to join Hector Beverages. The plan was to launch energy drinks, the world’s fastest-growing drink category, in flexible packaging.随后,2010年5月,在沃顿商学院的毕业典礼上,卡卡尔找到了在软包装领域工作的纳托尔。卡卡尔说了这位老同学加入Hector Beverages。他们计划推出软包装功能饮料,而功能饮料是世界上增长最快的饮料品种。By September 2010, Hector had rais#173;ed its first outside funds: m from Catamaran Ventures, the venture capital fund of Infosys founder NR Narayana Murthy, and from Footprint Ventures — both in Bangalore where Hector Beverages is now based. They had also brought in fourth partner Neeraj Biyani, also from Coke, for his strength in sales.到2010年9月,Hector已经募集到了第一笔外部资金:从Infosys创始人NR#8226;纳拉亚纳#8226;穆尔蒂(NR Narayana Murthy)创立的风险投资基金Catamaran Ventures,和Footprint Ventures募得了300万美元——这两家机构和Hector Beverages现在的总部都设在班加罗尔。他们还带来了同样来自可口可乐公司的第四位合作伙伴——长于销售的尼拉杰#8226;比亚尼(Neeraj Biyani)。Tzinga launched in March 2011, but uptake was slow. A year later, Mr Kak#173;kar had his aam panna epiphany. He began working with branding and des#173;ign consultancies to create the Paper Boat brand, with its evocative tagline “drinks and memories”, and its stylish packaging and website. The project was aided by m from a funding round led by Sequoia Capital in late 2012.2011年3月Tzinga上市,但推广缓慢。一年后,卡卡尔获得了aam panna的灵感。他开始同品牌和设计顾问合作打造Paper Boat这一品牌,设计了动人心弦的广告语“饮料与回忆”以及时尚的包装与网站。2012年底,该项目在红杉资本(Sequoia Capital)牵头的一轮融资中募得了800万美元,获得又一助力。But making the aam panna itself prov#173;ed tougher, as large amounts of green mangos were not commercially available, nor did Indian processors have the cap#173;acity to handle the hard green fruit. “Green mangos were available on the trees, but nobody was taking it from the tree. They are letting them ripen,” Mr Kakkar says.但是,事实明制作aam panna本身更加困难。因为无处买到大量的青芒果,印度的加工商也无法加工这种坚硬的青芒果。“树上倒是有青芒果,但是没人摘。他们要等果子成熟,” 卡卡尔说。So Paper Boat started with jal jeera, a mix of lemon juice and spices, and aamras, a ripe-mango smoothie. Test marketing began in 2013 in Delhi and Bangalore, and sales of the single-serving, Rs30 (.5), drinks have been rising in big Indian cities ever since: “Within a few months, we realised we are sitting on a good thing,” says Mr Kakkar, who declines to reveal turnover.因此,Paper Boat以用柠檬汁混着香料的jal jeera(茴香水)和用熟芒果汁调制的aamras起步,于2013年在德里和班加罗尔试卖,每袋售价30卢比(合0.5美元)。此后Paper Boat饮料在印度大城市的销量一路攀升:“只过了几个月,我们就认识到自己坐在一座金矿上,”卡卡尔说。他拒绝透露销售额。In 2014, Paper Boat was able to launch aam panna, using 150 tons of the raw fruit. But the struggle was an early taste of the biggest challenge facing the business: the supply chain management of sourcing ingredients.2014年,Paper Boat使用150吨生芒果推出了第一批aam panna。但这次努力让他们首次感受到Paper Boat面临的最大挑战:原料采购的供应链管理。Each traditional drink uses different ingredients, including fruits that grow wild, such as kokum and jamun. By working with fruit processors, and issuing forward contracts, Hector Beverages has persuaded some farmers to cultivate the fruits to ensure a stable supply.每一种传统饮料的原料都不同,其中包括野生水果,比如野山竹和堇宝莲果(jamun)。通过与水果加工商合作,签订远期合同,Hector Beverages说了一些农民培育这些水果,来保稳定的供应。“Every product has its own challenge in terms of the supply chain,” Mr Kakkar says, adding that young staff have been able to tackle these seemingly impossible challenges. “If you give it to young people, they do not understand what is possible, and what is not.”卡卡尔说:“就供应链而言,每一款产品都有各自的挑战。”他补充道,年轻的员工解决了这些看上去不可能解决的挑战,“如果你交给年轻人,他们不知道什么是可能,什么是不可能。”Hector Beverages, which has about 300 employees, up from 150 before the Paper Boat brand launched, struggled to keep pace with demand for its new drinks last year, says Mr Kakkar. Until this month, it had just one factory, capable of making 2m units a month. But it is now starting production at a new .6m factory that can turn out an additional 6m drink packs a month.在推出Paper Boat品牌之前,Hector Beverages有150名员工,现在员工人数增长到300名。去年,公司曾难以跟上其新饮料的需求增长步伐。直到本月,Hector Beverages只有一家工厂,每月能生产200万袋饮料。但现在,投入360万美元的新工厂开始生产,每月能多生产600万袋饮料。Of the founding quartet, two have exited the venture: Mr Nuttall returned to the US for family reasons, and Mr Misra left last year to pursue a higher degree. Mr Kakkar remains as the driving force focused on expanding in India, and perhaps to other countries with indigenous beverage traditions threatened by globalisation.四位创始人中,有两位已经离开:纳托尔由于家庭原因返回了美国,米斯拉去年离开去攻读更高的学位。卡卡尔依然是驱动力,专注于在印度市场做大,也许将来还会拓展到其他本土饮料传统受全球化威胁的国家。“Right now we are Paper Boat drinks and memories of India,” he says. “But at some stage, we can be Paper Boat drinks and memories of the world.”“目前,我们是Paper Boat饮料、印度的回忆,”他说,“但在某天,我们可能成为Paper Boat饮料、世界的回忆。” /201503/364016

The most interesting message in this year’s World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency is also its most disturbing.在国际能源署(IEA)今年发布的《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中,最令人瞩目的信息也最令人不安。Over the past decade, the oil and gas industry’s upstream investments have registered an astronomical increase, but these ever higher levels of capital expenditure have yielded ever smaller increases in the global oil supply. Even these have only been made possible by record high oil prices. This should be a reality check for those now hyping a new age of global oil abundance.过去10年里,油气行业上游业务投资暴增,但新增资本出带来的新增全球石油供应量不断缩小。尽管情况不尽如人意,这还是靠创纪录的高油价撑才得以实现的。对于眼下那些鼓吹全球石油充足新时代已经到来的人而言,这应是当头一棒。According to the 2013 WEO, the total world oil supply in 2012 was 87.1m barrels a day, an increase of 11.9m b/d over the 75.2m b/d produced in 2000.根据2013年《世界能源展望》,2012年,全球石油总供应量为每日8710万桶,这个数字较2000年的7520万桶增加了1190万桶。However, less than one-third of this increase was in the form of conventional crude oil, and more than two-thirds was therefore either what the IEA calls unconventional crude (light-tight oil, oil sands, and deep/ultra-deepwater oil) or natural-gas liquids (NGLs).然而,在新增部分中,常规原油只占不到三分之一,另外逾三分之二要么是IEA所说的非常规原油(轻致密油(light-tight oil)、油砂和深水及超深水石油(deep/ultra-deepwater oil)),要么是天然气凝析液(NGL)。This distinction matters because unconventional crude has a higher cost than conventional crude, while NGLs have a lower energy density.区分新增部分的不同来源很重要,因为非常规原油的成本高于常规原油,而天然气凝析液的能量密度低于常规原油。The IEA’s long-run cost curve has conventional crude in a range of - a barrel, whereas for unconventional crude the ranges are higher: - a barrel for oil sands, -0 for light-tight oil, and - for ultra-deep water. Meanwhile, in terms of energy content, a barrel of crude oil is worth 1.4 barrels of NGLs.根据IEA的长期成本曲线,常规原油的成本区间为每桶10美元至70美元,而非常规原油的成本区间位于较高水平:油砂的每桶成本为50美元至90美元,轻致密油为50美元至100美元,超深水石油为70美元至90美元。与此同时,1桶原油所含能量相当于1.4桶天然气凝析液。Threefold rise资本出12年扩大逾两倍The much higher cost of developing unconventional crude resources and the lower energy density of NGLs explain why, as these sources have increased their share of supply, the industry’s upstream capex has grown. But the sheer scale of the increase is staggering: upstream outlays have risen more than threefold in real terms over the past 12 years, reaching nearly 0bn in 2012 compared with only 0bn in 2000 (both figures in constant 2012 dollars).由于开发非传统原油资源的成本比传统原油高得多,而天然气凝析液能量密度比传统原油低,因此随着这些来源在原油供应中比例上升,该行业的上游资本出一直在增加,并且增幅相当惊人:过去12年,上游业务实际资本出扩大逾两倍,2012年达到近7000亿美元,而2000年这个数字仅为2500亿美元(这些数据均以2012年定值美元计算)。Coinciding with the rise in US tight-oil production, most of this increase in upstream capex has occurred since 2005, as investments have effectively doubled from 0bn in that year to nearly 0bn in 2012 (again in 2012 dollars).与美国致密油产量增加的时间相吻合,新增上游业务资本出大部分发生在2005年以后,实际上,投资从2005年到2012年翻了一番,从3500亿美元增至近7000亿美元(同样以2012年定值美元计算)。All of which means the 2013 WEO has the oil industry’s upstream capex rising by nearly 180 per cent since 2000, but the global oil supply (adjusted for energy content) by only 14 per cent. The most straightforward interpretation of this data is that the economics of oil have become completely dislocated from historic norms since 2000 (and especially since 2005), with the industry investing at exponentially higher rates for increasingly small incremental yields of energy.所有这些都意味着,如2013年《世界能源展望》所示,自2000年以来,石油行业上游业务的资本出扩大了近180%,但全球石油供应(按能源含量调整后)仅增加了14%。对这一数据的最直接解读是,自2000年(特别是自2005年)以来,石油的经济性已完全偏离历史正常水平,行业投资呈指数增长,而创造的能源产出增量却越来越少。The industry has been able and willing to finance such a dramatic increase in its capital investment since 2000 owing to the similarly dramatic increase in prices. BP data show that the average price of Brent crude in real terms increased from a barrel in 2000 to 2 in 2012 (in constant 2011 dollars), which represents a 195 per cent increase, slightly greater in fact than the increase in industry capex over the same period.自2000年以来,石油行业之所以一直能够而且愿意为资本出的飙升买单,是因为油价同样出现飙升。英国石油(BP)数据显示,布伦特(Brent)原油的每桶实际均价已从2000年的38美元升至2012年的112美元(以2011年定值美元计算),涨幅高达195%,实际上略高于同期石油行业资本出的增速。However, looking only at the period since 2005, capital outlays have risen faster than prices (90 per cent and 75 per cent respectively), while in the past two years capex has risen by a further 20 per cent (the IEA estimates 2013 upstream capex at 0bn versus 0bn in 2011), while Brent prices have actually averaged about a barrel less this year than in 2011.然而,如果只考察2005年至2012年这段时期,资本出增速是高于油价涨幅的(分别为90%和75%)。此外,在过去两年里,资本出进一步扩大20%(IEA估计,2013年上游业务资本出为7100亿美元,而2011年这一数字为5900亿美元),而布伦特原油今年的每桶均价实际上比2011年还要低5美元左右。Iran not a game changer伊朗不会扭转乾坤Moreover, this vast increase in capex has occurred during a prolonged period of record-low interest rates. Once interest rates start rising again, this will put further pressure on the industry’s ability to make the massive capital outlays required to keep supply growing.另外,资本出的大幅增加出现在利率处于创纪录低位的一段超长时期内。一旦利率开始再次上升,就会进一步压缩石油行业大规模资本出的能力,而这种能力是石油行业保持供应不断增加所必需的。Of course, the diplomatic breakthrough achieved with Iran over the weekend could provide some short-term relief to the market, as Iran’s exports could ultimately increase by up to 1.5m b/d if and when western sanctions are fully lifted. But this would not change the dynamics of the industry’s capex tmill in any fundamental sense.当然,不久前西方对伊朗的外交突破可能会让市场暂时松一口气,因为如果西方完全解除制裁,届时伊朗石油日出口量可能最终会增加150万桶之多。但这不会从根本上改变石油行业的资本出态势。The IEA estimates that global production of conventional crude oil from all currently producing fields will decline by 41m b/d by 2035 (an average of 1.9m b/d per year), so Iran’s potential increase of 1.5m b/d would compensate for just 10 months of natural decline in global conventional-crude output.IEA估计,到2035年,目前全球所有产油区的常规原油总日产量将减少4100万桶(平均每年减少190万桶),因此,伊朗可能增加的150万桶日出口量仅够弥补全球常规原油日产量头10个月的自然下滑。In short, behind the hubbub of market hype about a new age of oil abundance, the toil for oil is in fact more arduous and back-breaking than ever. This should worry everybody, because with the evidence suggesting that consumers are reluctant to pay much above 0 a barrel, it is an open question what happens next to the industry’s investment plans and hence, over time, to the supply of oil.简而言之,在市场大肆鼓吹石油充足新时代到来之际,生产石油事实上已变得比以往任何时候都更为艰难。所有人都应为此感到担忧,因为有据表明,消费者不愿为每桶超过110美元的油价买单,因此,石油行业投资的计划将何去何从,以及从长远来看对石油供应会产生怎样的影响,眼下都还是未知数。 /201312/267294


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