四川省人民医院预约知道对话

来源:搜狐娱乐
原标题: 四川省人民医院预约久久口碑
The costs imposed by the financial crises that hit western economies in 2007 have been enormous. UK gross domestic product is nearly a fifth smaller than if long-term pre-crisis growth trends had continued. The costs also include huge rises in public debt. In the UK the increase, as a direct and indirect result of the crisis, will be close to 50 per cent of GDP.2007年重创西方经济的金融危机造成的代价是巨大的。目前英国国内生产总值(GDP)相比危机前的长期增长趋势线少了近五分之一。代价还包括公共债务的大幅攀升。在英国,危机直接和间接造成的公共债务增加相当于GDP的近一半。This is the fourth most costly fiscal event of the past 225 years, after the wars with post-revolutionary France and the first and second world wars. Mismanaged finance imposes fiscal costs that are not far short of world wars.这是过去225年来代价第四高昂的财政事件,仅次于法国大革命后的英法战争、一战和二战。金融管理不善造成的财政代价,并不比世界大战带来的损失少很多。This is the background against which to judge predictable complaints that the post-crisis regulatory regime is too onerous and will prevent banks supporting the economy as well as they did when creating the crisis. In the UK particularly strong complaints are directed at the plan to ringfence retail banking from other activities. They often come from people connected to banking. But they would complain, wouldn’t they?这就是评判一些可预见的抱怨的背景,这些抱怨称,后危机时代的监管制度负担过重,将阻止像危机之前那样出色地持经济。在英国,抱怨尤其强烈的是针对将零售业“圈护”(ringfence)起来、与其他活动隔离的计划。这些抱怨往往来自与业相关的人士。但这些人当然会抱怨,难道不是吗?Ringfencing retail banking was one of the proposals of the Independent Commission on Banking, established by the UK government in 2010 (I was a member). The commission’s terms of reference required it to make UK banks safer without undermining global competitiveness. The ICB’s package of proposals also included greater “loss absorbency” — more funding by equity and debt that is ily convertible into equity.对零售实施圈护是业独立委员会(Independent Commission on Banking,简称:ICB)提出的建议之一,该委员会由英国政府在2010年建立(我是其中的成员)。ICB的权限要求它在不影响英国全球竞争力的情况下使它们更安全。ICB的一揽子提案还包括更强的“亏损吸收能力”——更多股权筹资以及更多随时可转换为股权的债务。Martin Taylor, former Barclays chief executive, member of the ICB and now Bank of England Financial Policy Committee member, has powerfully elucidated the logic behind ringfencing. It had, he notes, three chief goals.巴克莱(Barclays)前首席执行官、ICB前成员、现在是英国央行(Bank of England)金融政策委员会成员的马丁#8226;泰勒(Martin Taylor),有力地阐明了实施圈护背后的逻辑。他指出,这样做有三个主要目标。First, it was designed to make resolution of a failing bank easier by allowing the authorities to pluck out the most critical parts of the business. Second, “As long as governments stood behind a bank’s domestic business#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;and as long as that domestic business was mixed in with the investment bank#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;then effectively the taxpayer had no choice but to stand behind the investment bank too.” The ringfence was designed to subvert this “irresponsible business model”.首先,它旨在通过允许当局挑出业务中最关键的部分,使破产的清盘更加容易。第二,“只要政府持一家的国内业务……只要该行的国内业务与投行业务混合在一起……那么纳税人实际上就别无选择,只能也持投行那一块。”圈护旨在颠覆这种“不负责任的业务模式”。Finally, removing the implicit subsidy would make banking as a whole safer. Given the consequences of pre-crisis risk-taking, that had to be desirable.最后,取消隐性补贴将使业整体更加安全。考虑到危机前冒险行为产生的后果,这一点必定是可取的。The ICB did not recommend full separation between retail and investment banking because it saw the advantages of diversified risks. But it was also aware that balance sheets of UK banks were five times GDP, far higher than in comparable countries. The UK had to limit its exposure. Critics make a number of objections. One is that there is no reason to suppose investment banking is riskier than retail banking. That is true. The ICB did not think otherwise. But retail banking is surely more indispensable.ICB并未建议将零售业和投行业完全分离,因为它看到了风险分散化的优势。但它也意识到,英国各的资产负债表总规模达到国内生产总值(GDP)的5倍,远高于其他可比国家。英国作为一个国家必须限制自己的敞口。批评者提出许多反对意见。其中之一是,没有理由假设投行业比零售业务风险更高。这话没错。ICB也这样认为。但零售业无疑是更加不可或缺的。Another gripe is that the ringfence makes British banks uncompetitive in global banking. But if other governments wish to subsidise investment banking, that is their choice; it is not an argument for the UK to do so, too.也有人抱怨称,圈护政策使英国的在全球业失去竞争力。但是,如果其他国家的政府希望补贴投行,那是他们的选择;这不是英国也要这样做的理由。Others say the ring#173;fence will force UK banks abroad. Reference is made to announcements that HS is reconsidering its UK domicile. HS might indeed wish to escape the costly (and hard to justify) levy on bank balance sheets introduced in 2011. But it cannot escape the ringfence by leaving since its UK retail bank must remain subject to UK law. Thus, the ringfence cannot be a justification for doing so.还有人说,圈护要求将迫使英国的迁往海外。他们提到汇丰(HS)宣布重新考虑总部选址。汇丰可能的确希望逃避2011年出台的针对资产负债表的高额(且很难明合理)征费。但它无法通过搬迁总部来逃避圈护,因为英国的零售仍必须遵守英国法律。因此,圈护不能成为这样做的理由。A more powerful argument is that the loss absorbency of banks is now such that the additional safety provided by ringfencing is redundant. One response is that the internationally agreed levels of loss absorbency is in line with the proposals of the ICB. The other is that banks remain highly leveraged. Last year the ratio of total assets to equity of UK banks was between 20 and 30 to one. It would take modest losses to wipe out these banks’ equity.更有力的论据是,如今的亏损吸收能力已经相当大,圈护所提供的额外安全度是冗余的。对此的回应之一是,国际间同意的亏损吸收能力水平与ICB的建议相符。另一个回应是,英国的仍保持着高杠杆率。去年,英国各总资产与股本的比率介于20至30比1之间。不需要发生太大的亏损,就会抹掉这些的股本。A further objection is that we are now able to resolve troubled banks easily by converting loss-absorbing debt into equity or even winding them up. Improvements have indeed been made. But the idea that these processes would work smoothly if a crisis again engulfed the system is unproven, if not optimistic. Ringfencing would at least give any future government more options.还有一个反对意见是,我们现在能够通过将吸收亏损的债务转化成股权,或者甚至对其清盘,很容易地清算陷入困境的。确实取得了一些进步。但是,那种认为如果危机再次席卷这一体系,这些过程将顺利运转的想法并未被实,如果还算不上过于乐观的话。圈护至少将给未来的政府更多选项。If anything is to be reconsidered it is not ringfencing but the UK’s bank levy, which is simply a heavy tax. I would have no objection to making the boundary of the ringfence more flexible for retail banks in return for higher equity capital. More broadly, if the capital of banks were greatly increased, the case for ringfencing would weaken. But that is not where we now are. So ignore the whingeing.如果有任何事需要被重新考虑的话,那不是圈护政策,而是英国的征费,它就是一项沉重的税种。我不反对让零售的圈护范围变得更加灵活,以换取更高的股权资本。更广义上说,如果的资本大大增加,圈护的理由将被削弱。但这不是我们现在面临的问题。所以,别在意这些抱怨。 /201507/383685

Acting on a tip from spelunkers two years ago, scientists in South Africa discovered what the cavers had only dimly glimpsed through a crack in a limestone wall deep in the Rising Star cave: lots and lots of old bones.两年前,南非科学家按照洞穴探险爱好者的指引,在启星洞(Rising Star Cave)深处发现了探洞者通过石灰岩壁上的缝隙隐约瞥见的东西:大量古老的骨头。The remains covered the earthen floor beyond the narrow opening. This was, the scientists concluded, a large, dark chamber for the dead of a previously unidentified species of the early human lineage — Homo naledi.狭窄洞口内的泥土表面上铺满了骨骸。科学家得出结论,在这个巨大、漆黑的洞穴里面放着的遗体,来自一种属于早期人类谱系的不知名物种——“纳勒迪人”(Homo naledi)。The new hominin species was announced on Thursday by an international team of more than 60 scientists led by Lee R. Berger, an American paleoanthropologist who is a professor of human evolution studies at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. The species name, H. naledi, refers to the cave where the bones lay undisturbed for so long; “naledi” means “star” in the local Sesotho language.美国古人类学家李·R·伯杰教授(Lee R. Berger) 带领的一个国际团队在周四公布了这种新的人亚族(hominin)物种,团队由60多名科学家组成。伯杰在约翰内斯堡的金山大学(University of the Witwatersrand)任人类演化学教授。物种的命名取自那个让骨骸得以安然保存至今的洞穴;在塞索托语(Sesotho)里, “纳勒迪”的意思是 “星星”。In two papers published this week in the open-access journal eLife, the researchers said that the more than 1,550 fossil elements documenting the discovery constituted the largest sample for any hominin species in a single African site, and one of the largest anywhere in the world. Further, the scientists said, that sample is probably a small fraction of the fossils yet to be recovered from the chamber. So far the team has recovered parts of at least 15 individuals.在两篇本周刊登于开放阅读期刊《eLife》的文章里,研究人员说,该发现记录了超过1500件化石,是非洲单个考古地点中发现人亚族样本最多的一处,在全世界范围内也居于前列。接着,科学家们还说,洞穴中可能还有大量化石有待发掘,目前发现的这些只是一小部分。目前团队已经找到了最少15个个体的身体部分。“With almost every bone in the body represented multiple times, Homo naledi is aly practically the best-known fossil member of our lineage,” Dr. Berger said.“‘纳勒迪人’身体上的几乎所有骨头都出现过很多次,事实上他们已经是我们这一谱系中得到了最多了解的化石成员,”伯杰说。Besides introducing a new member of the prehuman family, the discovery suggests that some early hominins intentionally deposited bodies of their dead in a remote and largely inaccessible cave chamber, a behavior previously considered limited to modern humans. Some of the scientists referred to the practice as a ritualized treatment of their dead, but by “ritual” they said they meant a deliberate and repeated practice, not necessarily a kind of religious rite.除了引出一个前人类家族的新成员,该发现还表明,一些早期人亚族动物会故意把死者遗体存放在一个偏僻且很难进入的洞穴里,这是一种以前被认为只限于现代人的行为。一些科学家把这种做法归为对遗体的一种仪式性活动,但科学家们说,在“仪式”这个词上,他们是指故意和反复的活动,而不一定是一种宗教仪式。“It’s very, very fascinating,” said Ian Tattersall, an authority on human evolution at the American Museum of Natural History in New York, who was not involved in the research. “No question there’s at least one new species here,” he added, “but there may be debate over the Homo designation, though the species is quite different from anything else we have seen.”“这非常、非常令人着迷,” 纽约的美国自然历史物馆 (American Museum of Natural History)的人类演化研究权威伊安·泰特萨(Ian Tattersall)说。他没有参与该研究。“毫无疑问这里至少有一个新的物种,”他还说, “但是否归入人属(Homo)可能存有争论,尽管该物种和我们之前见过的任何物种都相当不一样。”A colleague of Dr. Tattersall’s at the museum, Eric Delson, who also is a professor at Lehman College of the City University of New York, was also impressed, saying, “Berger does it again!”泰特萨在物馆的同事、纽约市立大学李曼学院(Lehman College of the City University of New York)教授埃里克·戴尔森(Eric Delson)也对这项研究十分激赏,说这是“伯杰再次出手!” Dr. Delson was referring to Dr. Berger’s previous headline discovery, published in 2010, also involving cave deposits at the Cradle of Humankind site, 30 miles northwest of Johannesburg. He found many fewer fossils that time, but enough to conclude he was looking at a new species, which he named Australopithecus sediba. Geologists said the individuals lived 1.78 million to 1.95 million years ago, when australopithecines and early species of Homo were contemporaries.戴尔森指的是伯杰在2010年发表的另一项轰动发现,其中也涉及到位于约翰内斯堡西北30英里(约合48公里)处的“人类摇篮”内的洞穴。那次他找到的化石比这次少得多,但也足以得出找到了新物种的结论,他把该新物种命名为南方古猿源泉种(Australopithecus sediba)。地质学家说,该物种在178万至195万年前生活在地球上,古猿和人属早期物种存在于同一时期。Researchers analyzing the H. naledi fossils have not yet nailed down their age, which is difficult to measure because of the muddled chamber sediments and the absence of other fauna remains nearby. Some of its primitive anatomy, like a brain no larger than an average orange, Dr. Berger said, indicated that the species evolved near or at the root of the Homo genus, meaning it must be in excess of 2.5 million to 2.8 million years old. Geologists think the cave is no older than three million years.负责分析纳勒迪人化石的研究人员还没测定出化石的年代,由于洞穴内的沉积物混杂在一起,化石周围亦没有其他动物遗骸,因此年代测定会很困难。伯杰说,从一些原始的解剖构造看,比如顶多只有普通橙子大小的大脑,此物种已演化到接近或到达人属之初,也就是说肯定超过了250到280万年。地质学家认为洞穴的存在时间不会超过300万年。The field work and two years of analysis for Dr. Berger’s latest discovery were supported by the University of the Witwatersrand, the National Geographic Society and the South African Department of Science and Technology/National Research Foundation. In addition to the journal articles, the findings will be featured in the October issue of National Geographic Magazine and in a two-hour NOVA/National Geographic documentary to air Wednesday on PBS.伯杰此次新发现的实地工作及两年的分析工作均由金山大学、国家地理学会(National Geographic Society)和南非科学与技术部(South African Department of Science and Technology)/南非国家研究基金会(South Africa National Research Foundation)提供持。除学术论文外,此次发现还会出现在《国家地理杂志》(National Geographic Magazine)的10月号以及一部2小时的NOVA/国家地理纪录片中,纪录片将于周三在PBS播出。Scientists on the discovery team and those not involved in the research noted the mosaic of contrasting anatomical features, including more modern-looking jaws and teeth and feet, that warrant the hominin’s placement as a species in the genus Homo, not Australopithecus, the genus that includes the famous Lucy species that lived 3.2 million years ago. The hands of the newly discovered specimens reminded some scientists of the earliest previously identified specimens of Homo habilis, who were apparently among the first toolmakers.研究团队及没有参与研究的科学家都注意到,新物种包含了一些迥异的解剖特征,包括较像现代人的下颚、牙齿和脚,这就明应该被归为人属的人亚族物种,而非生活在320万年前的南方古猿属,也就是著名的露西(Lucy)所在的属。新发现物种标本中的手令一些科学家想起了此前已知最早的能人(Homo habilis)标本,而能人看来是最早开始制作工具的物种。At a news conference on Wednesday, John Hawks of the University of Wisconsin, Madison, a senior author of the paper describing the new species, said it was “unlike any other species seen before,” noting that a small skull with a brain one-third the size of modern human braincases was perched atop a very slender body. An average H. naledi was about five feet tall and weighed almost 100 pounds, he said.在周三的一场新闻发布会上,论文资深作者、威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校(University of Wisconsin, Madison)的约翰·霍克斯(John Hawks)说,该物种“不像我们之前见过的任何物种”,指出该物种在非常苗条的身体上有一个很小的头骨,以及只有现代人脑壳三分之一大小的大脑。他说,一个普通的纳勒迪人身高大概5尺(约合1.51米),体重将近100磅(约45公斤)。Tracy Kivell of the University of Kent, in England, an associate of Dr. Berger’s team, was struck by H. naledi’s “extremely curved fingers, more curved than almost any other species of early hominin, which clearly demonstrates climbing capabilities.”伯杰研究团队成员、英格兰肯特大学(University of Kent)的翠西·凯威尔(Tracy Kivell)说, 让她十分惊讶的是,纳勒迪人“有极度弯曲的手指,比任何早期人亚族物种都要弯,清楚地表明了他们的攀爬能力。”William Harcourt-Smith of Lehman College of the City University of New York, a researcher at the American Museum of Natural History, led the analysis of the feet of the new species, which he said are “virtually indistinguishable from those of modern humans.” These feet, combined with its long legs, suggest that H. naledi was well suited for upright long-distance walking, Dr. Harcourt-Smith said.纽约城市大学李曼学院的威廉·哈考特-史密斯(William Harcourt-Smith)亦是美国自然历史物馆的研究员,他负责对该新物种的脚展开研究,他说他们的脚“与现代人的双脚基本上没分别。”结合他们的长腿,他认为纳勒迪人完全适合长时间直立行走。In an accompanying commentary in the journal, Chris Stringer, a paleoanthropologist at the Natural History Museum in London, found overall similarities between the new species and fossils from Dmanisi, in the former Soviet republic of Georgia, dated to about 1.8 million years ago. The Georgian specimens are usually assigned to an early variety of Homo erectus.在期刊随附的一篇中,伦敦自然历史物馆(Natural History Museum in London)的古人类学家克里斯·斯特林格(Chris Stringer)发现,新物种大致上与前苏联格鲁吉亚共和国境内的德马尼西(Dmanisi)发现的化石近似,后者能追溯到约180万年前。格鲁吉亚标本通常被归类为早期直立人(Homo erectus)的一个变种。 /201509/398466NEW DELHI — A powerful cyclone crashed against the eastern coast of India on Sunday, uprooting trees, lashing the area with heavy rain and wind, and disrupting power and communication lines.新德里——周日,一个超强气旋重创印度东部海岸,将树木连根拔起,给该地区带来狂风暴雨,致使电力供应和通讯线路中断。Close to 300,000 people were evacuated from their homes in parts of the states of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh as of Sunday evening, according to disaster and relief officials in each state. One of the worst-hit regions was the coast of Andhra Pradesh, where more than 130,000 people were evacuated starting on Saturday in preparation for the storm, and where the 15-mile eye of the storm passed on Sunday afternoon. The storm, which is called Cyclone Hudhud, hit the southern port city of Visakhapatnam, where there is a major naval base.奥里萨邦和安得拉邦的救灾官员称,截至周日夜里,这两个邦的部分地区已经疏散了近30万人。受灾最严重的区域之一位于安得拉邦沿海地带,从周六开始,有超过13万人在风暴到来之前被疏散。周日下午,直径15英里(约合24公里)的风暴中心从这里经过。这个名为“胡德胡德”(Hudhud)的气旋袭击了南部港口城市维沙卡帕特南,那里有一处重要的海军基地。“There is huge damage,” said N. Chandrababu Naidu, the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, in a telephone interview with the Indian news channel NDTV. “Even to buildings, trees and also crops. Communication has totally collapsed.”“损失巨大,”安得拉邦首席部长N·钱德拉巴布·奈度(N. Chandrababu Naidu)接受印度新闻频道新德里电视台(NDTV)的电话采访时说。“尤其是建筑物、树木,还有庄稼。通讯已彻底瘫痪。”The Japanese island of Okinawa was also hit by a powerful typhoon, Vongfong, on Sunday. The typhoon was expected by Monday to fully reach the island of Kyushu, Japan, becoming the second severe storm to hit in a week, according to The Associated Press. At least 35 people were reported injured in Okinawa and Kyushu, where the authorities told 150,000 people to evacuate as the typhoon toppled trees, flooded streets and cut power to more than 60,000 homes. The Japan Meteorological Agency said the typhoon could reach the Tokyo area Tuesday, gradually losing strength as it moves up the archipelago.周日,日本冲绳也遭遇了超强台风“黄蜂”(Vongfong)的袭击。据美联社(Associaed Press)报道,这次的台风预计将于周一在日本九州完全登陆,成为本周以来的第二场强风暴。据报道,在冲绳和九州至少有35人受伤,当地政府已经要求15万人疏散。与此同时,台风刮倒了树木,街道被洪水淹没,超过6万户居民电力供应中断。日本气象厅(The Japan Meteorological Agency)称,台风可能于周二抵达东京地区,在日本列岛上向北移动时,风力会逐渐减弱。In India, officials with the Indian Meteorological Department said to NDTV that the winds from the cyclone were about 121 miles per hour, earning a “very severe” cyclone designation, but that within six hours, the winds would diminish by half, reducing it to a cyclone. Six hours after that, officials said, winds would further weaken by half, making it a “depression” by midnight.印度气象局(Indian Meteorological Department)官员对NDTV称,气旋风速约为每小时121英里,因此被形容为“超强”气旋,但在六小时内,风力就会减半,成为普通气旋。官员称,再过六小时,风力将会再减弱一半,到午夜成为“低压”。At least two people in Andhra Pradesh were killed in the storm — one man who was hit by a felled tree and one woman who was crushed by a collapsing wall, according to A. R. Sukumar, the state’s disaster management commissioner. Three more people were killed in Odisha. On Saturday, an overloaded government evacuation boat capsized in the state after it hit a tree trunk, drowning a 6-year-old girl and a 13-year-old boy, according to P. K. Mohapatra, the special relief commissioner in the state. A fisherman rescuing his boat at midnight on Saturday was also killed.安得拉邦的灾害管理专员A·R·苏库马尔(A.R. Sukumar)称,该邦至少有两人在风暴中死亡——一名男性被倒下的大树砸死,另有一名女性被倒塌的墙砸死。奥里萨邦有三人死亡。据该邦救灾专员P·K·莫哈帕特拉(P. K. Mohapatra)透露,周六,一艘超载的政府疏散船只在该邦撞上树干并倾覆,导致一名六岁的女孩和一名13岁的男孩溺水身亡。一名渔夫在周六午夜在挽救自己的小船时遇难。There was a brief lull in the storm in Andhra Pradesh on Sunday afternoon as the eye of the cyclone moved over land, but officials warned residents not to think that the storm had passed, and winds increased again to close to their initial levels.周日下午当风暴中心移上陆地时,安得拉邦出现了短暂的平静,但官员们警告居民不要认为风暴已经停止,之后风力再次加大到最初的强度。Arvind Kumar, an officer on special duty for disaster management who was posted to the city of Visakhapatnam for the storm, said that evacuations were taking place against the will of many residents, some of whom preferred to brave the storm and stay in their homes. Often in the event of severe weather, the worst affected are the area’s very poor, many of whom live in makeshift homes.被派到维沙卡帕特南执行灾难管理特别任务的官员阿尔温德·库马尔(Arvind Kumar)表示,疏散举措违背了很多居民的意愿,其中一些人宁愿勇敢面对风暴,留在家中。遭遇恶劣天气时,这一区域受影响最为严重的通常是穷人,其中很多人住在临时搭建的房屋中。Sanyasamma, 82, who goes by one name, was holed up in her home in the nearby city of Vizianagaram with her children and grandchildren. She was also providing shelter to a few local residents who had evacuated their huts in favor of her larger brick home.在附近的维济亚讷格勒姆市,82岁的桑亚萨玛(Sanyasamma)和她的孩子及孙辈躲在家中。桑亚萨玛使用单名。她还为少数当地居民提供住所,后者离开了自己的小屋,来到了桑亚萨玛的大砖房。“I have never seen this much rain in my entire life,” she said.她说,“我这辈子从没有见过这么多雨。”V. Raghu, 39, who works with an engineering firm in Afghanistan, came home to tend to his ailing father in Visakhapatnam during the storm. He was with his father in a hospital and worried that the power would go out and that they would soon run out of water if the storm did not stop.39岁的V·拉古(V. Raghu)在阿富汗为一家工程公司工作,他在风暴期间回到位于维沙卡帕特南的家中,看望生病的父亲。他与父亲待在医院中,他担心如果风暴不停止,电力会用尽,而且很快就会停水。“The whole city is hiding in their homes,” he said.他说,“全城的居民都躲在家里。”The Indian Meteorological Department predicted that the tide would surge three to six feet above its natural level when the cyclone hit, and advised at least six districts in Andhra Pradesh to suspend fishing operations.印度气象局预测,气旋来袭时,潮位会比正常水位高三到六英尺(约合1.8米)。该局建议安得拉邦的至少六个地区暂停捕捞作业。The state authorities had closed the Visakhapatnam port, railroad station and national highways on Saturday in preparation for the storm.周六,安达拉邦相关机构已经关闭了维沙卡帕特南的港口、火车站及国道,迎接风暴的到来。India’s eastern coast is often hit by cyclones at this time of year. Last October, Cyclone Phailin resulted in 800,000 evacuations but few deaths, evidence, officials have said, of the increased preparedness of the Indian government and locals.每年的这个时候,印度东海岸通常会遭到气旋侵袭。去年10月,气旋“费林”(Phailin)导致80万人疏散,但几乎没有人员死亡,官员们称,这明印度政府及当地居民加强了防备。More than 10,000 people were killed 15 years ago when a cyclone hit roughly the same area, but in the intervening time, physical infrastructure and communication lines have improved significantly in the country, aiding evacuation efforts.15年前,一场气旋侵袭了大致相同的区域,导致逾1万人死亡。但在那以后,该国的基础设施及通讯线路得到了大幅改善,这有助于疏散工作。 /201410/335286Compare two ways of earning the same amount in London. The first is to work. A job in one of the capital’s thriving industries will on average pay about 35,000. The second is to own enough office space for a few desks in the city’s West End. Just 17 sq m currently yields about the same amount.请比较一下在伦敦赚到相同数额的钱的两种方式。第一种是工作。在伦敦蓬勃发展的行业找一份工作,平均薪水约为3.5万英镑。第二种是在伦敦西区(West End)拥有一套足够放几张桌子的办公用房。按照最近的行情,只要拥有17平米就能赚到差不多相同数额的钱。Despite Britain registering deflation for the first time in half a century, its capital remains an expensive place to do business. The overriding cause is expensive property. Even against other global centres, the cost of renting an office or roof over one’s head is steep.尽管英国刚出现了半个世纪以来的首次通缩,但其首都仍然是一个昂贵的经商地点。最主要的原因是高昂的房地产价格。即使是与全球其他几个中心相比,在伦敦租赁一间办公室或住房的成本也相当高昂。To superficial eyes this is a badge of success. Cities teetering on the brink of failure, such as Detroit, are often studded by boarded-up houses and empty business districts. London can charge so much because it is an excellent place to work. Alongside financial services, the city is a global hub for the creative industries, law and even high-value manufacturing.表面上看来,这是成功的标志。底特律等濒临破产边缘的城市中,通常布满了木板房和空荡荡的商业区。伦敦的租金之所以能收那么高,是因为这里是绝佳的工作地点。除了金融务,伦敦还是创意产业、法律、甚至高附加值制造业的全球中心。Yet this high demand to work and live in Britain’s capital only makes more abject its failure to provide sufficient space. What is more, the scarcity of land for development is artificial, and largely comes down to politics.不过,这种在英国首都工作和居住的高需求,只是使它无法提供足够空间的问题显得更加令人遗憾。更重要的是,用于开发的土地稀缺是人为造成的,而且在很大程度上要归咎于政治。The Conservatives sailed into power on a wave of promises that would boost the demand for property, such as inheritance tax breaks and an ill-received idea for selling off social housing. Since the election, developers’ share prices have risen and estate agents’ phones rung hot with inquiries from overseas buyers. Surprised at the scale of their victory, the Tory government might not have expected to enact many of its measures.保守党(Conservatives)借着提振房地产需求的承诺执掌了权力,比如遗产税优惠和一个令人难以接受的想法——出售公屋。自大选以来,地产开发商的股价一路上涨,房地产经纪人的电话被来电咨询的海外买家打得发烫。惊讶于此次大获全胜的保守党政府,此前也许没有预料到其要将竞选时提出的很多措施付诸实施。Now, to stop prices spiralling further out of sight the government must supplement its populism with a proper strategy to close the gap between demand and supply, starting with London. It can learn from others’s past failures: the Swedish National Bank tried to quench the roaring property market in Stockholm through its monetary stance, damaging the rest of the economy. Other tools are not available to the UK: Singapore owns 80 per cent of the homes its population inhabits. Like Hong Kong, it imposes restrictions on foreign buyers with which London should be ill at ease.如今,为了避免价格进一步攀升至遥不可及的高度,政府必须在民粹主义之外拿出适当的策略来弥合需求和供应之间的差距,从伦敦开始。它可以从其他国家过去的失败中学到教训:瑞典央行(Swedish National Bank)曾尝试通过货币政策给斯德哥尔飙涨的房地产市场降温,但损害了经济的其他部分。还有些工具是英国没有的:新加坡有80%人口居住在政府提供的组屋里。再比如香港,那里限制外国人买房,而伦敦应该无法坦然接受这种做法。In contrast to Manhattan or Singapore, London is not an island and has no physical reason for limiting the supply of land. But releasing more for development will take courage. Much of the land needed is derelict but nevertheless marked as “greenbelt”. This inspires misguided environmental protectionism from an array of bodies determined to protect every last scrap. Even without such organisation, existing property owners create a fearsome political block. Many of London’s citizens have become wealthy owning houses that are collectively worth 1.5tn. They also savour the rules that bear down on congestion, keep the view uncluttered and hold back the sprawl typical in cities elsewhere. Opposition to development seeds many a political campaign.与曼哈顿或新加坡相比,伦敦并不是一个岛屿,并没有必须限制土地供应的客观原因。但是,释放更多土地用于开发需要勇气。很多亟需的土地都是荒地但却被标记为“绿地”。这激起了大批被误导的环保团体的热情,它们决心保护每一寸仅存的绿地。即使没有此类机构,现有的房地产业主也构成一个令人望而生畏的政治障碍。很多伦敦市民已变得富有,他们拥有的房产总价值达到1.5万亿英镑。他们还青睐那些旨在减轻拥堵、保持城市景观和谐以及阻止城市出现无序扩张常见病的规定。许多政治游说都源于反对土地开发。Against these, the victims of insufficient development are voiceless and dispersed: families in cramped accommodation, workers slogging in on a long commute and younger people kept from a promising career by the lack of a wealthy relative. These also feed through to business costs.相比这些人,承受土地开发不足之痛的人发不出声音,也缺乏组织:住所狭小的家庭、长途通勤的工人、以及因为没有富有的亲戚而无法拥有前途光明的职业的年轻人。这些也转化为商业成本。The Conservatives have launched their new spell in government with the aspiration to govern for one nation, and do all they can for business. For the former they will need to heal the fissure in British society caused by the sheer expense of living in London. As for business, no single measure could save companies more than bringing down rents in the capital city.怀着“为着同一个国家执政”(govern for one nation)和竭尽全力促进营商的抱负,保守党已经开始新一届任期。就前一个抱负而言,他们需要修复伦敦高昂生活成本在英国社会中造成的裂缝。就营商而言,没有哪一项措施能比降低首都的租金成本更能拯救企业。 /201505/377478

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